What did the FBI and CIA know about bombing suspects, and when?

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Did failure to share intel contribute to Boston attack?

Human intelligence is declining according to Stanford geneticist

follow the money

http://rt.com/usa/news/intelligence-stanford-years-fragile-531/

Ever can’t help but think you’re surrounded by idiots? A leading scientist at Stanford University thinks he has the answer, and the bad news is things aren’t likely to get any better.

Dr. Gerald Crabtree, a geneticist at Stanford, has published a study that he conducted to try and identify the progression of modern man’s intelligence. As it turns out, however, Dr. Crabtree’s research led him to believe that the collective mind of mankind has been on more or a less a downhill trajectory for quite some time.

According to his research, published in two parts starting with last year’s ‘Our fragile intellect. Part I,’ Dr. Crabtree thinks unavoidable changes in the genetic make-up coupled with modern technological advances has left humans, well, kind of stupid. He has recently published his follow-up analysis, and in it explains that of the roughly 5,000 genes he considered the basis for human intelligence, a number of mutations over the years has forced modern man to be only a portion as bright as his ancestors.

“New developments in genetics, anthropology and neurobiology predict that a very large number of genes underlie our intellectual and emotional abilities, making these abilities genetically surprisingly fragile,” he writes in part one of his research. “Analysis of human mutation rates and the number of genes required for human intellectual and emotional fitness indicates that we are almost certainly losing these abilities,” he adds in his latest report.

From there, the doctor goes on to explain that general mutations over the last few thousand years have left mankind increasingly unable to cope with certain situations that perhaps our ancestors would be more adapted to.

“I would wager that if an average citizen from Athens of 1000 BC were to appear suddenly among us, he or she would be among the brightest and most intellectually alive of our colleagues and companions, with a good memory, a broad range of ideas, and a clear-sighted view of important issues. Furthermore, I would guess that he or she would be among the most emotionally stable of our friends and colleagues. I would also make this wager for the ancient inhabitants of Africa, Asia, India or the Americas, of perhaps 2000–6000 years ago. The basis for my wager comes from new developments in genetics, anthropology, and neurobiology that make a clear prediction that our intellectual and emotional abilities are genetically surprisingly fragile.”

According to the doctor, humans were at their most intelligent when “every individual was exposed to nature’s raw selective mechanisms on a daily basis.” Under those conditions, adaption, he argued, was much more of a matter than fight or flight. Rather, says the scientists, it was a sink or swim situation for generations upon generations.

“We, as a species, are surprisingly intellectually fragile and perhaps reached a peak 2,000 to 6,000 years ago,” he writes. “If selection is only slightly relaxed, one would still conclude that nearly all of us are compromised compared to our ancient ancestors of 3,000 to 6,000 years ago.”

———–

are we are smarter than 6000 years ago?..they had great minds who could read the stars and knew maths..they made pyramids back then..we cant copy that now to that sort of precision..we had to use our minds for everything to live and survive..we have better technology now but whats that mean for human brain development?..i think hes probably correct..

Cuba Remains an Intel Threat

Capitolhillcubans

An excerpt by Chris Simmons in Cuba Confidential:

[I]n July 2008, Dr. Joel F. Brenner, Director of the U.S. Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive (an element of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence) said: “The Russians and the Chinese remain big problems for us. The Cubans are a problem for us and the Iranians are a big problem for us… and the Cubans have a very accomplished set of intel services and they are something we have to watch.”

Last year, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) told the Senate Armed Services Committee “Cuba remains the predominant foreign intelligence threat to the United States emanating from Latin America.”

Shortly thereafter, former Director of the National Counterintelligence Executive, Michelle Van Cleave, testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs that “…measured by its reach, history, objectives and success against us, Cuba is easily within the Top Ten list worldwide.”

Cuba earned its position as “Intelligence Trafficker to the World” by stealing U.S. secrets, not necessarily hacking our computers. Knowing this, it is disingenuous for Washington to split hairs between old-school “economic espionage” and “cyber-espionage directed against economic targets.” Everyone understands that Washington insiders exploit the cyber threat to generate publicity for themselves and funding for their projects. It’s time for the administration to stop minimizing the threat from Havana and revitalize our counterintelligence services so they can better identify and destroy foreign spy services operating in America.

Intelligence Agency Predicts 2030

MidweekPolitics

Intelligence Agency's 2030 projections outline a number of predictions about the state of world affairs over the next 18 years.

OBAMA KNEW LIBYA ATTACK WAS AL QAEDA WITHIN 24 HOURS BUT DIDN'T TELL THE COUNTRY THE TRUTH

By Eli Lake | The Daily Beast | Sep 26, 2012 

Sources say intelligence agencies knew within a day that al Qaeda affiliates were behind the attacks in Benghazi, Libya—they even knew where one of the attackers lived. Eli Lake reports.

Within 24 hours of the 9-11 anniversary attack on the United States consulate in Benghazi, U.S. intelligence agencies had strong indications al Qaeda–affiliated operatives were behind the attack, and had even pinpointed the location of one of those attackers. Three separate U.S. intelligence officials who spoke to The Daily Beast said the early information was enough to show that the attack was planned and the work of al Qaeda affiliates operating in Eastern Libya.

Nonetheless, it took until late last week for the White House and the administration to formally acknowledge that the Benghazi assault was a terrorist attack.

A spokesman for the National Security Council declined to comment for the story. But another U.S. intelligence official said, “I can’t get into specific numbers but soon after the attack we had a pretty good bead on some individuals involved in the attack.”

It’s unclear whether any of these suspected attackers have been targeted or arrested, and intelligence experts caution that these are still early days in a complex investigation.

Read more:  http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/26/u-s-officials-knew-libya-attacks-were-work-of-al-qaeda-affiliates.html

Did alleged spy spill secrets, compromise China's intelligence agents in US?

msnbc.msn.com/

A Chinese state-security official arrested this year on allegations of spying for Washington is suspected to have compromised some of China's U.S. agents in a major setback that angered President Hu Jintao, sources said.

Hu personally intervened this year, ordering an investigation into the case after the Ministry of State Security arrested one of its own officials for passing information to the Americans, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The official, an aide to a vice minister, was taken into custody sometime between January and March after the ministry became alarmed last year over repeated incidents of Chinese agents being compromised in the United States, they said.

The ministry's own investigations found the aide had been working for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for years, divulging information about China's overseas spy network in the nation's worst espionage scandal for two decades, they added.

The sources' comments represent the first confirmation that overseas Chinese espionage was deemed to have been damaged by the security breach, which has been kept quiet by both Beijing and Washington. Reuters first reported it on June 1.

The aide's identity has still not been revealed but he worked for vice minister Lu Zhongwei, the sources said, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the case.  More >>

Cuban Intelligence Targeting of the Latin American Studies Association

Cuba Confidential

Valdes Paz

The Latin American Studies Association (LASA) is the largest group of Latin America specialists in the world.  One of LASA’s many functions is hosting their Congress every 18 months.  At last month’s LASA Congress in San Francisco, Cuban Intelligence associate Milagros Miriam Rodríguez Martínez, a “scholar” from the Universidad de La Habana, chaired the panel discussion New Perspectives on Immigration.   For more background, see Cuba Confidential stories, “Declassified FBI Documents Identify Another Cuban Scholar-Spy” (May 23^rd) and “Washington Post Clueless Again:  Wants Spy Admitted to US” (May 22^nd).

Aware of Cuban Intelligence’s long-term interest in LASA Congress’ and the target rich environment it provides, in March 2006, the State Department issued a blanket disapproval of the 58 visa applications to the LASA Congress in San Juan, Puerto Rico.  The State Department announced that the presence of the Cubans would be “detrimental to the interests of the United States.”  In September 2004, the State Department denied visas to all 60 Cuban applicants to the LASA Congress in Las Vegas.  In March 2003, the US denied visas to 45 Cubans scheduled to attend the LASA Congress in Dallas.

In March 1988, LASA met in New Orleans.  Three officers from the America Department (DA), the intelligence wing of the Cuban Communist Party, attended this conference,.  The Center for North American Studies (CEA), a DA front organization, sponsored the panel “Cuba and Central America in U.S. Foreign Policy.”  Organized by CEA official Juan Valdés Paz, the panel consisted of Valdes and two other CEA members: Julio Carranza Valdés and Rafael Hernández.  Valdés presented the paper, “U.S. Strategic Foreign Policy in Central America.”  At the time, Hernandez directed the CEA’s US Research Department.  Carranza is currently assigned to the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Office (UNESCO) in Montevideo.
----------------------------
Note: Dr. Antonio de la Cova says:

June 1, 2012 at 7:17 pm

LASA has been sponsoring visits of Cuban “scholars” who double as intelligence agents since the Jimmy Carter Administration allowed this trend that was continued under Republican presidents.
The 7th National LASA meeting was held in Houston in November 1977, with the announced participation of Cuban officials: MIRTA AGUIRRE, SANTIAGO DIAZ, MARIA ROSA GENTILE, MILAGROS MARTINEZ, ESTEBAN MORALES, ROBERTO FERNANDEZ RETAMAR, MANUEL MORENO FRAGINALS and OSCAR PINO SANTOS.
The 8th National LASA meeting was held in Pittsburgh, April 5-7, 1979, with the announced participation of Cuban officials: MIGUEL BARNET, SERGIO CHAPLE, FRANCISCO MARTINEZ SOLER and MANUEL MORENO FRAGINALS. Others present included expatriate Castro apologists and activists MAX AZICRI, ROMAN V. DE LA CAMPA, JORGE I. DOMINGUEZ, CARMELO MESA-LAGO, MAURICIO FONT and MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE. See the article by Max Azicri: “La presencia de Cuba en las reuniones de LASA” Areito, Vol. 5, Nos. 19-20, 1979, pp.60, 61.
And the list goes on. . . .

Arnaldo Fernández, John McAdams, M. Claver-Carone y el libro de Latell sobre los secretos de Castro

 

Desde el sitio de Ichikawa

¿Es útil el libro de Brian Latell Castro’s Secrets: The CIA and Cuba’s Intelligence Machine (Palgrave Macmillan, 2012) para confrontar al gobierno de los Castro? Sin duda alguna. El libro de Latell, por lo menos, implica a Fidel Castro en el asesinato del Presidente Kennedy, lo que sería inaceptable para la opinión pública norteamericana; y no deja de repetir que los servicios de inteligencia de La Habana son tan competentes como peligrosos para la seguridad de los Estados Unidos. De repente, hay otro documento escrito que puede incorporarse como prueba para argumentar condenas al gobierno de la isla, para avalar que se mantenga a Cuba en la lista de países que promueven el terrorismo, etc. Por eso es perfectamente ajustado a criterio que un lobbista anticastrista como el abogado Mauricio Claver-Carone lo promueva y, quizás, hasta que lo aprecie intelectualmente. Aunque en la estructura mental de un activista un libro no tiene que ser bueno: basta con que sea útil para la causa.

De la misma forma, es completamente lógico que un investigador como Arnaldo Fernández y un profesor de Marquette University como John McAdams, saquen a relucir los defectos del libro de Latell como investigación histórica. Porque si para Claver Carone, Latell es ante todo un objetor del gobierno de La Habana; para Fernández y McAdams, Latell es un académico de un Centro de la Universidad de Miami especializado en investigaciones sobre Cuba, y debe responder (y exponerse) por la calidad de sus publicaciones.

Todo anda bien cuando cada cual hace lo que le toca y percibe como le corresponde.

-ILUSTRACION: “Los tanques de Raúl Castro, según Brian Latell”: By Alen Lauzán

-McAdams sobre el libro de Latell: “Review of Brian Latell’s “Castro’s Secrets” (HNN Goeorge Mason University)

-Fernández sobre el libro de Latell: “Latell y su contra-inteligencia” (Parte I, Parte II, Parte III, Parte IV)

Bin Laden documents: Fear of drones

Security Clearance/ By Pam Benson

The dire impact of CIA drone missile strikes against suspected terrorists in Pakistan certainly did not go unnoticed by Osama bin Laden, prompting the al Qaeda leader to repeatedly warn associates to take appropriate security measures, according to documents seized during the raid on the al Qaeda leader's Pakistan compound last year.

Read:  Security Clearance's coverage of the Osama bin Laden documents

The letters written by bin Laden were among a number of documents released to the public on Thursday by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center.

In an October 2010 letter to Atiyya Abdul Rahman, al Qaeda's top operational planner, bin Laden noted the experience the United States had in using drones to monitor activities in the tribal areas of Pakistan where many of al Qaeda's core members operated.

"They can distinguish between houses frequented by men at a higher rate than usual. Also, the visiting person might be tracked without him knowing," he wrote.

Drones had primarily been used for surveillance purposes in Pakistan, but in 2004, the CIA upped the ante by firing the first missile from a drone at a terrorist target in Waziristan. Hundreds of attacks have been launched since then.

In a May 2010 message to Rahman, bin Laden wrote, "I had mentioned in several previous messages ... the importance of the exit from Waziristan of the brother leaders, especially the ones that have media exposure. I stress this matter to you and that you choose distant locations to which to move them, away from aircraft, photography and bombardment while taking all security precautions."

He offered advice on where to live in Pakistan: "Kunar is more fortified due to its rougher terrain and many mountains, rivers and trees, and it can accommodate hundreds of the brothers without being spotted by the enemy. This will defend the brothers from the aircraft ..."

Bin Laden explained in an April 2011 letter to Rahman that people should live on the outskirts of cities so they will be less obvious and reduce the security dangers. For those in cities he had a particular worry: "And one of the important security issues in the cities is controlling children, by not getting out of the house except for extreme necessity like medical care, and teaching them local language; and they do not get to the yard of the house without an adult who will control the volume of their voices."

Bin Laden suggested other ways to improve security. On transportation, he warned about traveling in cars and added, "A warning to the brothers: they should not meet on the road and move in their cars because many of them got targeted while they were meeting on the road."

He recommended the timing for movement: "He should move only when the clouds are heavy."

He indicated how often they should meet: "The brother should visit you no more than once or twice a week."

Bin Laden wrote about the need to use code words and aliases and said, "Remind your deputies that all communication with others should be done through letters."

He even warned his colleagues to get rid of the bag that money might be exchanged in because the bag might have a tracking chip.

Sometimes his instructions were quite detailed. In the April 2011 letter to Rahman, bin Laden spoke about how a message to his son should be handled. "This thumb drive contains a phone number of one of our brothers contained in the message for Hamzah, so please do not copy the message for Hamzah and after Hamzah copies the phone number on paper, destroy the card for fear of compromise."

Bin Laden gave some very precise directions to Rahman in the May 2010 letter concerning the possible arrival into Pakistan of some al Qaeda members who had been held in Iran.

"They will go to the tunnel between Kuhat and Peshawar, and arrange a meeting between them and another brother," he wrote. "The meeting must be precise in timing and it will be inside the tunnel, and they will change cars inside the tunnel, so they will ride the car with the brother and they will meet instead of the car they were riding in, and the brothers who are going to drive the car must be instructed on the strict adherence to the timings."

He continued with instructions saying there should be additional car changes, the movement should happen when it is overcast, and they should get rid of everything they received from Iran, "like baggage or anything, even as small as a needle, as there are eavesdropping chips that are developed to be so small, that they can even be put inside a medical syringe."

Five days before he was killed in the Navy SEALS raid on his Abbottabad compound, bin Laden wrote to Rahman, "we with the grace of Allah have been adhering to these precautions for nine years and we haven't heard that any of the brothers were arrested after the events (a possible reference to the 9/11 attacks) while adhering to the precautions..."

Rahman, who rose to the number two position after bin Laden's death, was struck down last August by a drone missile strike in the mountains of Pakistan.

Entrevista [promocional] a Brian Latell

By gusanomarielito

'Spy in the bag' case: Conspiracy theories run wild

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Read >>

El Idiota Jefe de la Inteligencia de norteamericana

ya uno esta acostumbrado a las boberias de tanto akademico, periodista o verraco que se considera autorizado a examinar el tema cuba, que generalmente uno no hace "acuse de recibo" de ellas. sin embargo cuando alguien como el general retirado de dos estrellas James R. Clapper  jefe de la National Intelligence incurre en la misma estupidez que refiere el despacho de la AFP, en su testimonio ante el senado norteamericano, no hay manera de obviar el mensaje implicito que se transmite de que el kaxtrizmo no implementa mas cambios reformistas en la direccion deseada por el temor a la inestabilidad social. 

de hecho el kaxtrizmo  se reformula en neokaxtrizmo solo como via de conservacion del poder del klan de biran y la elite sucesora. nada mas. cualquier otra explicacion es subvertir las relaciones causa-efecto.

---------------------------------

[I-D] Robert Mueller Director del FBI, Mr. Idiota James Clapper Director de la National Intelligence y el Directo de la CIA David Petraeus antes de comenzar su testitimonio ante the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Capitol Hill on Jan. 31, 2012 in Washington, DC.

WASHINGTON [AFP]— Las reformas económicas impulsadas por el presidente cubano, Raúl Castro, son implementadas "gradualmente" y con cautela, ante el temor de inestabilidad en la isla, afirmó este martes el jefe de inteligencia estadounidense, James Clapper.

"Cautos ante la inestabilidad, las autoridades están implementado las reformas económicas anunciadas el año pasado sólo gradualmente", indicó el jefe de la Dirección Nacional de Inteligencia estadounidense (DNI) en su testimonio en una audiencia en el Senado estadounidense.

El "delicado" proceso de reforma busca "revivir la decaída economía sin relajar el control político", señaló.

Según Clapper, la postergación del recorte de más de 1 millón de trabajadores de las nóminas estatales muestra "la sensibilidad del régimen castrista que observa los levantamientos populares en otras partes del mundo".

Raúl Castro, que sustituyó en el mando en 2006 a su hermano enfermo Fidel, ha anunciado pragmáticas medidas para superar la crisis económica de la isla, entre ellas la ampliación del trabajo por cuenta de privados y el levantamiento de la prohibición de la compraventa de casas y autos.

A La Habana "le preocupa que las reformas económicas incrementen la presión por una apertura política y más derechos individuales", dijo Clapper, que observó un "alza" en la detención de disidentes.

La Habana sufre la disminución de la ayuda del gobierno afín de Hugo Chávez en Venezuela, por lo que "desperadamente busca diversificar" sus fuentes de inversión, destacó.

La condena a 15 años de prisión al subcontratista estadounidense Alan Gross, quien entregaba equipos de comunicación a comunidades judías en La Habana, subraya "el miedo del régimen castrista a las redes sociales", agregó.

What if humans were twice as intelligent?

By Natalie Wolchover

You might someday be much, much smarter than you are now. At least that's the hope of neuroscientists focused on understanding the basis of intelligence.

They have discovered that the brains of people with high IQs tend to be highly integrated, with neural paths connecting distant brain regions, while less intelligent people's brains build simpler, shorter routes. But no one knows why some brains construct much longer-range connections than others.

"When the brain mechanisms that underlie intelligence are understood, it is theoretically possible that those mechanisms can be tweaked to increase IQ," said Richard Haier, a neuroscientist and professor emeritus at the University of California at Irvine who studies intelligence. For the first time in human history, he said, "the concept that intelligence can be increased is reasonable."

It's a titillating thought but, considering the aphorism "ignorance is bliss," one might wonder: Would it really be better to be brainier? What would life and society be like if we all suddenly became, say, twice as intelligent?

For simplicity, imagine that instead of our current mean IQ score of 100, humans had an average score of 200. (Experts say this isn't a true "doubling" of intelligence because the IQ scale doesn't start at zero — and furthermore, the test isn't actually designed to yield a score as high as 200 — but we will set aside these qualifications for the purpose of argument.)

According to Earl Hunt, professor emeritus of psychology at the University of Washington and president of the International Society for Intelligence Research, approximately one person in 10 billion would have an IQ of 200. With a current world population of 7 billion, there may or may not be one such person alive today, and in any case, his or her identity is unknown. However, the 17th-century genius Isaac Newton, discoverer of gravity, calculus and more, is sometimes estimated to have had an IQ of 200 (though he never took an IQ test).

Using him as an archetype, what if we were all a bunch of Newtons? Would the world be much more advanced than it is today?  More >>

Were circumstances of Kim Jong-il's death fabricated?

Kns / AFP - Getty Images

This undated picture, released from North Korea's official 
Korean Central News Agency on Dec.17, 2011, shows 
North Korean lreader Kim Jong Il (C), accompanied by 
his son Kim Jong Un (2nd-L), inspecting the Kwangbok 
Area Supermarket just before opening in Pyongyang. It is
said to be the elder Kim's last public appearance.

By msnbc.com staff and news services

The official report said that North Korea's "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il died on a train at 8:30 on Saturday morning after suffering a heart attack during a "high intensity field inspection." State media reported his death on Monday.

Now, North Korea experts in South Korea are calling into question that account, saying North Korea likely made it all up, according to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper website.

Among the details they say don't make sense:

• Freezing weather: Kim was known for a nocturnal lifestyle and rarely got up before noon, and would have unlikely risen early in 20-degree temperatures for a field inspection.
• Train didn't move: South Korea's intelligence director testified that Kim's special train - equipped with four hospital cars - did not move out of the station the entire weekend.
• Witnesses: Kim always traveled with a large entourage, but the news of his death was kept secret for 50 hours.

Citing South Korean sources, the newspaper speculates Kim most likely died at home.

Kim's death 'surprise' shows intelligence failure

By MARK LANDLER and CHOE SANG-HUN

WASHINGTON — Kim Jong-il, the enigmatic North Korean leader, died on a train at 8:30 a.m. Saturday in his country. Forty-eight hours later, officials in South Korea still did not know anything about it — to say nothing of Washington, where the State Department acknowledged “press reporting” of Mr. Kim’s death well after North Korean state media had already announced it.

For South Korean and American intelligence services to have failed to pick up any clues to this momentous development — panicked phone calls between government officials, say, or soldiers massing around Mr. Kim’s train — attests to the secretive nature of North Korea, a country not only at odds with most of the world but also sealed off from it in a way that defies spies or satellites.

Asian and American intelligence services have failed before to pick up significant developments in North Korea. Pyongyang built a sprawling plant to enrich uranium that went undetected for about a year and a half until North Korean officials showed it off in late 2010 to an American nuclear scientist. The North also helped build a complete nuclear reactor in Syria without tipping off Western intelligence. More >>

The Covert Intelligence War Against Iran

By Scott Stewart

There has been a lot of talk in the press lately about a “cold war” being waged by the United States, Israel and other U.S. allies against Iran. Such a struggle is certainly taking place, but in order to place recent developments in perspective, it is important to recognize that the covert intelligence war against Iran (and the Iranian response to this war) is clearly not a new phenomenon.

Indeed, STRATFOR has been chronicling this struggle since early 2007. Our coverage has included analyses of events such as the defection to the West of Iranian officials with knowledge of Tehran’s nuclear program; the Iranian seizure of British servicemen in the Shatt al Arab Waterway; the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists; the use of the Stuxnet worm to cripple Iranian uranium enrichment efforts; and Iranian efforts to arm its proxies and use them as a threat to counteract Western pressure. These proxies are most visible in Iraq and Lebanon, but they also exist in Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

While the covert intelligence war has been under way for many years, the tempo of events that can readily be identified as part of it has been increasing over the past few months. It is important to note that many of these events are the result of hidden processes begun months or even years previously, so while visible events may indeed be increasing, the efforts responsible for many of them began to increase much earlier. What the activities of recent months do tell us is that the covert war between Iran and its enemies will not be diminishing anytime soon. If anything, with the current withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Iranian nuclear efforts continuing,we likely will see the results of additional covert operations — and evidence of the clandestine activity required to support those operations. Read more »

Canadian Security Inteligent Services: WHAT FUTURE FOR RUSSIA?

Executive summary

There exist many Russias, images of which are shaped as much by perceptions as by misperceptions and what seem at times to be flagrant contradictions. Descriptions of the country vary widely: seen by some as a polity suffering the pains of political transition, it is also viewed as a petro-state, a neo-imperial power whose former glory has made nostalgic, and as "Russia Inc.", where all can be bought and sold. The multiple definitions of Russia are all in their own way rooted in current political, economic and social realities, as well as in its geography and its self-image in the international system. All these factors together determine whether Russia's ambitions will become realities, or if the gap between them may simply be too wide to bridge.

President Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly indicated that his country needs modernisation. But one wonders whether he has the necessary power to make a lasting difference in this sense. Modernisation is improbable in the current system, in which class interests are too rigid and corruption reigns. Genuine modernisation will require a seismic shift in Russian politics, an unlikely development since the influential classes prefer the status quo. Mr Medvedev might well be viewed as the younger, future face of Russia, but he is in many respects a virtual president, unable to implement modernisation programs because his prime minister is more powerful than him.

Observers at times assume that Russian democracy will come to resemble western-style democracy. While the West can assist Russia's transition, the very ideas of democracy, liberty, justice and political participation often carry differing meanings for both sides and hinder mutual understanding. It also remains to be seen whether a genuinely democratic Russia would be more open to collaboration with North America and Europe.

Diversifying the national economy has been advertised as a long-term objective. However, oil and gas will provide Russia's most meaningful comparative advantage far into the future; it is not realistic to imagine the country's hydrocarbon sector becoming only one amongst many. Moscow hopes to play the "Chinese energy card" when dealing with the EU: if Europeans do not meet Russia's conditions, it might turn eastwards, where a growing market lies and is open for business. This is mere rhetoric because there is no pipeline infrastructure to ship the required oil to China and natural gas is not prominent in China's supply mix. Russia and the EU therefore rely as much on each other for energy security.

Moscow's vision of its future as a great, aspiring power with "rights and consequence over its subordinate neighbours" is not shared by the surrounding political actors. Improvements have occurred in its relations with the US thanks to the "reset" policy and its cornerstone initiative, the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). But the treaty's future is uncertain because it has not been ratified by the US senate and may run into verification challenges. Relations with Beijing are often seen as a way to sustain Russia's status as a global power. In reality the relationship between the two countries is limited to a few common interests. In the end, Moscow remains overwhelmingly oriented towards western culture, politics and world-views.

When Mr Putin assumed the Russian presidency in the late 1990s, he promised significant improvements to the state of the Russian armed forces. Little accomplishments have been made despite words meant to create the illusion of a military renaissance. Russia maintains a nuclear strategic deterrence capability, and a quantitatively impressive conventional arsenal. However, despite reform efforts, Russia lacks modern military capabilities and the quality of its forces leaves room to be desired.

Read more...

The U.S. Intelligence Community [Book by National Security Archive Staff and Fellows]

Books by National Security Archive Staff and Fellows

The U.S. Intelligence Community

The United States spends over $25 billion a year assimilating and monitoring security-related information around the world. Every hour of every day reconnaissance satellites, radar bases, signals intelligence systems, aircraft, vessels, and clandestine agents are marshaled in a prodigious effort to read the pulse of global politics and foreign enterprises.

The U.S. Intelligence Community is the first comprehensive portrait of the labyrinth of U.S. intelligence-gathering organizations whose true dimensions remain shrouded in secrecy. Through the Freedom of Information Act, incisive interviews, and scrupulous research, Jeffrey Richelson has outlined the internal structure of the 30-odd organizations that comprise the U.S. Intelligence Community, and unveils a world known to most of us merely in terms of moles, spies, and spooks.

Richelson charts the evolution of the CIA, FBI, and military intelligence agencies and reveals the interrelationships between today's multifarious and awesomely sophisticated intelligence complexes. How are national security agendas born and carried out? What are the hierarchies and lines of power that shape and support U.S. intelligence network? Who manages the intelligence-collecting activities, and who hands down the orders for overt or overt involvement? More lucidly and more extensively than any single volume before, The U.S. Intelligence Community uncovers what intelligence is, who it is done by, and how it is perpetrated, interpreted, and used.

Iranian Commander: ‘We Have Infiltrated America and the UK’

According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Fars News Agency, on Tuesday night — during a gathering of high-ranking members of the IRGC command and the Basij militia — Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Naghdi announced:

Today we are in a full-scale war with our enemies. During the last 32 years, the enemy has gone from pillar to post and from one angle to another in order to find a way to bring us down. But the enemy has been hit hard and the proof of that is in the collapse of the Western block, the humiliation of the banking and investment sector, the awakening of our various nations, the spread of the religion of God, and people distancing themselves from the devil-worshipping elitists. This is a sign of our populist progress.

Naghdi, the commander of the Basij militia, added:  Here...