CONTRA EL PINGALISMO CASTRISTA/ "Se que no existe el consuelo que no existe la anhelada tierrra de mis suenos ni la desgarrada vision de nuestros heroes. Pero te seguimos buscando, patria,..." - Reinaldo Arenas

Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Finanzas. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Finanzas. Mostrar todas las entradas

lunes, marzo 24, 2014

Money talks: The impact of sanctions on Russia

The Economist

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sábado, marzo 08, 2014

Cuba's External Debt Problem: Daunting Yet Surmountable

Cuba has been in default of the bulk of its external financial obligations for over 50 years without negotiations towards a comprehensive restructuring.  Even the facts of the case are difficult to ascertain.  According to the most current official Cuban information published by Oficina Nacional de Estadisticas, the external debt stood at $12.3 billion at the end of 2009.  But according to the Club of  Paris of 19 major creditor governments (including Russia and Brazil but excluding China) the claims on Cuba by this group alone at the end of 2011 were $30.5 billion.[i]  Adding claims by private and other official creditors yields total external obligations of $43.1 billion. However, this number does not include capitalized interest due private and some official creditors.  In addition, the estimate does not include debt to Venezuela arising from the bilateral agreement between the two countries through which Cuba receives crude oil and derivates.  There is no precise information on this potential debt, although in recent years reported Cuban exports of health and other services to Venezuela exceed the value of its oil imports.
                                           CUBA: EXTERNAL DEBT BY CREDITOR - US$BILLIONS
 
actual
projected
   

end 2011
end 2014


BIS banks
1.7
1.2
   
Paris Club/a
30.5
10.4
   
Other Official Debt/b
2.0
2.6
   
Suppliers/c
4.6
5.0
   
Defaulted Bonds and loans/d
4.3
4.3
   
Total
43.1
23.5
   
              debt ratios  (on 2011 GDP and trade data)
     
 Debt as % of GDP
62.5
34.0
   
Debt as % of Exports + Tourism
504
275
   
Debt as % of Convertible Exports + Tourism
839
458
   
Debt as % of Exports of Goods and Services
262
143


Sources: BIS, Quarterly Review ( June 2012 and September 2013), Paris Club (Annual Reports
2011 and 2012), Oficina Nacional de Estadisticas, Exotix and author's  estimates.
 
    a/ official debt to major creditors except Brazil, China and Venezuela
 
    b/ Brazil, China and other official debt not in Paris Club estimated from project data
    c/ estimate based on data from ONE for end 2009
     
    d/ defaulted bonds and commercial loans carried at face value
   
          and includes $1.25 billion from London Club
     


The table shows external claims on Cuba.  The bulk of this data is reported by creditors, either official or private, or estimated from project finance figures.  Only the debt to suppliers is derived from the Cuban government.  A sizable part of the discrepancy with Cuban statistics stems from the long-standing rejection by Cuba of principal and interest owed to the former Soviet Union and claimed by Russia.  Nonetheless the Club of Paris this year revised upwards by $4.6 billion its claims to $35.1 billion as of the end of 2012, of which some 40% are new claims by Russia of principal and past due interest.[ii] Subsequently Russia announced a preliminary agreement for the writing off and refinancing of $32 billion of Soviet era debt.[iii] The actual agreement was signed in October 2013 and reportedly will write-off 90% of the debt with $3.2 billion to be repaid over 10 years.[iv]  Some of this will be offset by new credits from Russia for the leasing of airplanes and purchases of other equipment.  Implementation is expected to take place by the end of 2014 as the Russian Duma needs to grant approval.
There have been other important recent debt negotiations.  In 2012 an agreement was completed to write-off a substantial amount of Japanese commercial debt and rescheduling the reminder for 30 years.  It is not known if this agreement involved official debt, while there has been no confirmation from the Paris Club.  In September 2013 Mexico announced a restructuring of official claims on Cuba.[v]  Mexico is writing off 70% of a $487 million debt owed BANCOMEXT, the Mexican foreign trade bank.  The table incorporates these restructuring agreements into a forecast for the debt at the end of 2014.
Lacking comprehensive negotiations Cuba is making progress on restructuring important components of its foreign obligations.  On a practical level these agreements can open the door to some bilateral trade and project finance, though they are insufficient to propel Cuba towards access to international financial markets.  For this, restoration of relations with international financial institutions, crucially the IMF and World Bank, are needed followed by agrements with the Paris Club and later, a settlement with bondholders and other long-ago defaulted private creditors. These agreement are required for Cuba to achieve a comprehensive restructuring of its debt and gain market perception of creditworthiness.
How burdensome is Cuba’s external debt?  To help answer this question I have calculated debt ratios shown on the table. These ratios relate the debt to the capacity to service it.  Complementary ratios showing the burden of debt servicing are not calculated as there is scant public data regarding Cuba’s principal repayment schedules, interest rates and bond and loan covenants directing the treatment of past due interest and principal.
The ratio of debt to GDP at the end of 2001 was 62.5%, nearly matching the 61.2% average  of transition economies in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.[vi]  This ratio is surely understated by the accounting of Cuban national accounts at a notional value of CUP 1 =  US$1.  A more realistic exchange rate means a substantially higher value for this indicator.  Following the restructuring operations with Russia and Mexico, the debt to GDP ratio will be lowered to around 34% by end 2014.  For the sake of argument, assuming the Cuban peso is overvalued by 40%, the ratio would be 57%.
A problem, however, is that the Cuban economy is relatively closed to international trade and nearly completely closed to international financial and capital markets.  So that even if the debt is not very large relative to the size of the economy, it would still require a great effort to achieve the capacity to service the debt without great stress on its external accounts, and on consumption and investment.
Looking at the debt in an alternative way,  the ratio of projected 2014 debt to exports of goods and services at 143% would place Cuba among a number of countries with investment grade credit ratings.  Nonetheless, a majority of current account receipts are part of barter trade with Venezuela and other countries such as Brazil, China and Russia which provide a small amount of free cash flow.  Another measure, the ratio of debt to convertible exports and tourism receipts which are paid in cash, places the ratio at over 450%, an unsustainable level that implies a high probability of default.
These numbers depict a situation where debt levels even after some restructuring are still daunting, and where the solution lies in opening up the economy to trade and investment as well as a decisive push to engage in a wider set of external financial negotiations.  These will require a contribution by Cuba to make partial restitution payments on defaulted obligations.  All of this will be arduous as political considerations in Cuba and abroad stand in the way of progress. 


[i] Club of Paris, Annual Report, 2011.
[ii] Ibid, Annual Report, 2012.
[iii] Pravda, February 22, 2013
[iv]  “Deal on Forgiving $32 billion Cuban Debt to USSR Signed”, The Moscow Times, 11 December 2013, Issue 5274.
[v] “Mexico Says it will waive most of $487 million debt owed to Cuba”, Reuters, November 1, 2013.

[vi] Luis, L. R., “Cuba: External Debt and Finance in the Context of Limited Reforms,” Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, Annual Proceedings, 2013, forthcoming.

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martes, enero 28, 2014

Bernanke and beyond


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viernes, enero 17, 2014

Hippocrits! U.S. Senators Introduce Bill to Expand Magnitsky Law Beyond Russia

Mary Greeley

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China and Japan Increase Holdings of U.S. Debt to Record High levels

China, the largest foreign buyer of U.S. Treasury debt, increased its holdings by $12.2 billion in November. This represents almost a 1% increase in its total debt holdings to $1.32 trillion, a record level.

The second largest foreign holder of treasury debt is Japan, which increased its holdings by 1% to $1.19 trillion, also a record. Overall, foreign holdings of U.S. treasury bonds increased by 1.1% in November to 5.72 trillion. Some are unsure about the consequences of China and Japan owning such a large amount of U.S. treasuries. However, this huge investment in America ties both countries' fortunes with the success of the U.S. economy.
According to Forbes contributor Kenneth Rapoza, foreign investors owning debt is not a threat to the United States. Rapoza points out that of the $16 trillion in outstanding U.S. debt, most of it is held by large banks here in America: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank, and Bank of America. China holds about 7.5% of U.S. debt. “One of the reasons why China has so much Treasury holdings is because of trade. Companies put money in short term Treasury notes and bills to settle trade payments,” Rapoza asserts.
Forbes also noted that the Pentagon did an assessment on the risks posed by China’s ownership of U.S. treasuries in July and came to the same conclusion: “Attempting to use U.S. Treasury securities as a coercive tool would have limited effect and likely would do more harm to China than to the United States.”

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sábado, diciembre 21, 2013

Choteo: Cuba emitirá bonos del "tesoro" para financiar déficits presupuestarios

Bonos de la República de 1905 emitidos para pago de haberes del Ejército Libertador firmados por Tomás Estrada Palma presidente y Juan Rius Rivera Secretario de Hacienda./
www.futurodecuba.org
la emision de bonos del tesoro es un mecanismo financiero normal de amplia practica internacional para lograr equilibrios macroeconomicos y financiar deficits presupuestarios. sin embargo se requiere que la tesoreria nacional que no queda claro en el caso de cuba donde reside, cuente con la credibilidad minima indispensable para que inversores y no  asociaciones de "amistad" o socios politicos consideren conveniente comprar bonos a 20 anos con solo un 2.5% de interes anual. el comportamiento del regimen cubano respecto a honrar la deuda externa indica que la plaza antillana no es altamente riesgosa sino que no disfruta de absolutamente ninguna credibilidad. rusia acaba de hacerle un write off al 90% [29 billones de dolares, hecho del cual los "entendidos" no han acabado de enterarse] a la deuda heredada de cuba con la union sovietica y los socios del club de paris aun esperan por una renegociacion seria y responsable por parte de la habana.
en la breve nota no se precisa -como es costumbre- si la compra de bonos sera publica o solo podran acceder a ella personas juridicas [y ello requiere analisis complementarios muy rigurosos pues la inconvertibilidad del peso cubano o su posible convertibilidad arbitraria distorsionaria cualquier compra por parte de instituciones extranjeras e incluso en los casos en que se realizara por personas naturales y juridicas nacionales]. igualmente fijar que hasta el 70% del deficit presupuestario sera cubierto por esta via y el 30% por emision de dinero, no solo es una proporcion puesta "a dedo" que no se corresponde con la realidad economico-financiera de un pais que incumple en un 25% el discreto crecimiento planificado para el 2013 a pesar de las reformas y la inescrupulosa metodologia de cuentas nacionales, sino que la emision irresponsable de dinero generara inflacion -acentuada por el proceso de unificacion monetaria-, deteriora aun mas la menguada capacidad adquisitiva de los segmentos mas vulnerables de la ya estratificada sociedad cubana por una parte; mientras el escenario de una compra significativa de los bonos del tesoro excluyendo un putin que acaba de rescatar a ucrania de la union europea con un bill out de 15 billones, es tan improbable como que los dictadores de biran se conviertan en socialdemocratas.
luego, si toda la reforma financiera-fiscal del pais concluye con un incremento del deficit presupuestario, hara bien el general de hojalata en contratar a un tecnico del banco  mundial para que le disene una politica financiera seria y sustentable.
-------------------
La Habana, 21 dic (PL) Cuba comenzará a emitir bonos soberanos para financiar la deuda generada por el déficit presupuestario, informó al Parlamento Lina Pedraza, Ministra de Finanzas y Precios.

Según explicó la titular, el país comenzará a financiar de esta manera hasta el 70 por ciento del déficit, el cual se prevé que alcance el 4.7 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) para el 2014.

La deuda restante se cubrirá con la emisión de dinero por el Banco Central. Así, según la ministra, se controlará la inflación de manera más eficiente.

Además, explicó que son títulos de deudas negociables y ante la necesidad de un banco de adquirir efectivo puede ponerlo a disposición de otra entidad del sistema financiero del país.

Los bonos tendrán un interés anual del 2.5 y vencerán a los 20 años.

En su intervención ante el foro con motivo de la presentación del anteproyecto de Ley de Presupuesto para el 2014, Pedraza explicó que se prevé que el déficit crezca más que el PIB.

Dicho fenómeno genera desequilibrio y una correlación desfavorable en la que se contraen deudas a un ritmo superior que el crecimiento de la economía, indicó.

El próximo año -adelantó- será sustantivo para la relación financiera de las empresas con el presupuesto.

A partir de enero, el sector empresarial estatal entregará el 50 por ciento de sus utilidades, mientras que tendrá a su disposición el resto de las ganancias, agregó la titular.

En esta misma jornada los diputados recibieron información sobre los resultados económicos del 2013 que registraron un crecimiento del PIB de 2.7 por ciento, inferior al 3,6 previsto.
--------------
notas:  
  1. los bonos tendran caracter de deudas negociables y ante la necesidad de un banco de adquirir efectivo puede ponerlo a disposición de otra entidad del sistema financiero del país, con lo que todo quedara en "casa".
  2. de acuerdo con juventud rebelde "A diferencia de años anteriores, el ciento por ciento del déficit fiscal se financiará mediante la emisión de bonos soberanos. El 70 por ciento correrá a cargo de instituciones bancarias cubanas, y el 30 por ciento por el Banco Central de Cuba". con esta "novedad" de terrateniente feudal y absoluto, raul castro subordina el sistema bancario nacional a los marasmos de su politica economica, donde ahora solo bastara darle la "orden" correspondiente al banco que se considere para que "pague" por los descalabros economico-financieros de la finca. 
ahora comprendo la consternacion de la ministra de finanzas lina pedraza y el expresidente del banco central francisco soberon, dos tecnocratas que si saben el alcance de la decision tomada por la rinconada y promovida posiblemente por el grupito de los murillos.
 

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miércoles, noviembre 27, 2013

Chair of Canadian Mint helped run offshore 'tax-avoidance scheme' for clients

The chair of the Royal Canadian Mint, who also served as an adviser on international taxation to the federal Finance Department, helped engineer the transfer of millions of dollars of a prominent Canadian family through offshore tax havens in what others involved characterized as a "tax avoidance scheme," documents obtained by CBC News show.
Slightly more than $8 million was moved through offshore entities in Bermuda, Barbados and Antigua, later prompting allegations that the arrangement, if exposed, could lead to potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in "taxes, interest and penalties." The documents show there were also concerns about secrecy and instructions to shred files.
The hundreds of records are part of a sprawling lawsuit against James Barton Love, a Toronto tax lawyer who chairs the mint's board of directors, and others by descendants of former prime minister Arthur Meighen. Quietly settled in 2011, the lawsuit saw family members allege that the offshore transactions, which began in 1996, were unlawful and negligent and that Love "breached his fiduciary duties and acted oppressively."
Love countered in sworn statements that the offshore manoeuvres "resulted in significant savings of Canadian tax" for Meighen's heirs — an amount he estimated at $1 million.
He also emphatically denied any breach of trust and said he had "specifically advised" there were risks to the offshore arrangement.
None of the allegations was ever tested in court.

'Complex transaction'

Love, a close friend of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty who was appointed to the Mint's board in 2006, was also a trustee for most of the last decade of the Arthur Meighen Trust, an entity set up by the former Conservative PM in 1949 to distribute his wealth to his family. Before taking on that formal role, documents show Love had been an adviser and "close" friend to several Meighen family members.
If you have more information on this story, or other investigative tips to pass on, please email investigations@cbc.ca.
It was in that advisory role that Love, in the mid-1990s, informed the managers of the Meighen Trust that they could get "Canadian tax relief on the income from about 40 per cent of the [trust] assets" if they moved the money offshore, Meighen's great-granddaughters say in their statement of claim.
The use of secret accounts in offshore jurisdictions like Switzerland or the Cayman Islands has been thrust into the media limelight in recent years, following a spate of data leaks — including from several Swiss banks — that exposed account-holders’ identities and information.  The most recent large leak was made public in April, when CBC News teamed up with the U.S.-based International Consortium of Investigative Journalists to report on secret accounts linked to 130,000 people worldwide.
More at cbc >>
-----------------
Also:  How the rich hide money offshore >>
How the rich hide money offshore
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martes, noviembre 05, 2013

The Proper Role of Debt in Public Policy

What is the proper role of debt in public policy?
Most people would agree that when a government borrows money, it should be used to fund projects today that will provide positive benefits to the community for years to come. That mainly means things like investing in physical infrastructure to support not just projects that have high costs to create, such as roads, bridges, water treatment facilities, airports or schools, but also that will also last for decades while providing a positive return on investment through increased economic activity.
Under no circumstances however should governments borrow large amounts of money for the sake of sustaining their day-to-day operations that they cannot pay off with their direct tax collections within the course of a single year. These are not just expenses like the wages, salaries, and benefits of government employees and the office supplies they consume, but also for things that have relatively short life spans, which means that they will need to be replaced within in much less than ten years time. Things like library books, computer software, mobile phones, police cars, trash bins, et cetera.
http://aging.ohio.gov/news/agingconnection/2009January/2.asp
The reason why it is such a bad thing to begin using large amounts of debt to finance short-term operational expenses is because of the mismatch it creates between the life span of the expense and the term of the debt. It makes absolutely no sense to pay principal and interest payments for a government-issued bond for thirty years for the sake of buying something like police cars today that will most likely be decommissioned in less than five years time. By the time the debt that supported these kinds of expenses will be paid off, the benefits provided to the public will have been long forgotten.
When that kind of mismatch develops between the term of government-issued debt and the lifespan of the things it funds or sustains, it is a clear indication that the government has crossed the event horizon for its debt, which can now spiral out of control and become a debt death trap. In this situation, a government must issue ever-increasing amounts of debt to sustain the excessive spending ambitions of its politicians, who often will be long gone or perhaps even in prison by the time the bills they racked up through their fiscal malfeasance might fully be paid.
Unfortunately, that is the story of many local governments and municipalities around the United States, which are increasingly turning to bankruptcy proceedings to escape the fiscal recklessness of their civic leaders. And while it has not yet reached that point, it is today's developing story for the City of Chicago. The Chicago Tribune's Jason Grotto, Heather Gillers, Patricia Callahan and Alex Richards report:
When municipal officials want to build for the future, they have a powerful financial tool at their disposal: general obligation bonds that yield millions of borrowed dollars. The money is meant to let cities move forward on costly projects that will serve the community for decades.
But in an unprecedented analysis of Chicago’s finances, a Tribune investigation found that city officials have long abused their borrowing privileges, spending funds meant for long-term initiatives on problematic short-term expenses from library books to legal settlements.
Residents know little about it, as Illinois law doesn’t require Chicago to ask voters’ permission before issuing bonds. And when the city can’t pay what it owes, it uses yet more borrowed money as leverage to push off payments on old bonds.
This pattern of fiscal recklessness, which started under former Mayor Richard M. Daley, created a mountain of debt that threatens the financial future of the city. Now Rahm Emanuel is groping for ways to deal with the problem along with a looming pension crisis and chronic budget deficits.
Once a debt death trap begins, an ever-increasing portion of a government's spending must go to support its debt obligations. The interest rates that the increasingly fiscally-distressed government must pay to its lenders for new debt to sustain its spending also increase at the same time, because the lenders recognize that the government is less capable of making its debt payments from its available tax collections, so they must protect themselves from an increased risk of default by charging a higher price for the money they lend.
That vicious cycle then repeats and becomes amplified over time, which makes it more and more difficult to escape from that situation as the government's debt situation spirals out of control and it becomes stuck in a debt trap of the politicians' own making.
Petition to File for Bankruptcy - Source: FBI
Faced with that situation, many politicians increasingly turn to tax hikes to try to balance their government's books, but these measures invariably fail because of how adversely they affect the local economy that supplies the tax revenue that supports the government's operations. The negative impact of these tax hikes create a massive fiscal drag that far outstrips the impact of what simply cutting their government's unsustainable amount of spending to more fiscally-responsible levels would have been, if only they had been willing to reduce their spending.
So why don't the politicians do the fiscally-responsible thing and reduce the amount of their spending to a more sustainable level long before it even puts the government at risk of a debt crisis?
In many cases, the unsustainable level of spending that puts their government at risk is really what the politicians promised to deliver to their political backers in exchange for the endorsements and campaign contributions that help put them in power, which is why they resist taking that responsible action so strongly. It is far more important to them to meet their backers' needs than those of regular citizens, and particularly so when their political backers gain so much from the government's spending.
In the end, the only way out is to make the political sacrifice and cut government spending to sustainable levels, while at the same time defaulting on their debt obligations and seeking relief through bankruptcy. The people who get hurt the most as that process plays out are the regular citizens whose real interests were being ignored by the politicians all along.
And how that process will play out is the real story that is developing in Chicago today.

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jueves, octubre 31, 2013

Britain: "A World Capital for Islamic Finance"/ Gatestone Institute

"I want London to stand alongside Dubai and Kuala Lumpur as one of the great capitals of Islamic finance anywhere in the world." — David Cameron, Prime Minister, Great Britain.
But critics say that British ambitions to attract investments from Muslim countries, companies and individuals are spurring the gradual establishment of a parallel financial system based on Islamic Sharia law. The Treasury also said some sukuk Islamic bond issues may require the government to restrict its dealings with Israeli-owned companies in order to attract Muslim money.
The London Stock Exchange will be launching a new Islamic bond index in an effort to establish the City of London as one of the world's leading centers of Islamic finance.
Britain also plans to become the first non-Muslim country to issue sovereign Islamic bonds, known as sukuk, beginning as early as 2014.
The plans are all part of the British government's strategy to acquire as big a slice as possible of the fast-growing global market of Islamic finance, which operates according to Islamic Sharia law and is growing 50% faster than the conventional banking sector.
Although it is still a fraction of the global investment market -- Sharia-compliant assets are estimated to make up only around 1% of the world's financial assets -- Islamic finance is expected to be worth £1.3 trillion (€1.5 trillion; $2 trillion) by 2014, a 150% increase from its value in 2006, according to the World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report 2012-2013, published in May 2013 by the consultancy Ernst & Young.
But critics say that Britain's ambitions to attract investments from Muslim countries, companies and individuals are spurring the gradual establishment of a parallel global financial system based on Islamic Sharia law.
British Prime Minister David Cameron announced the plans during a keynote speech at the ninth World Islamic Economic Forum, which was held in London from October 29-31, the first time the event has ever been held outside the Muslim world.
"Already London is the biggest center for Islamic finance outside the Islamic world," Cameron told the audience of more than 1,800 international political and business leaders from over 115 countries.
"And today our ambition is to go further still. Because I don't just want London to be a great capital of Islamic finance in the Western world, I want London to stand alongside Dubai and Kuala Lumpur as one of the great capitals of Islamic finance anywhere in the world."
Keep reading on Gatestone Institute >>
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viernes, octubre 18, 2013

Why China Wants to Dump the Dollar

www.dailypaul.com

China’s Dagong credit rating agency on October 17th downgraded its United States sovereign credit rating to A- and maintained its negative outlook on America’s solvency. Dagong warned that despite Washington's last-minute resolution of the debt ceiling deadlock, “The fundamental situation that the debt growth rate significantly outpaces that of fiscal income and gross domestic product remains unchanged.” 

China's official state-run news agency, Xinhua, reiterated its statements that because of the continuing risk of a U.S. debt default, it is “a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world.” This language is code for China wanting to abandon the U.S. dollar as the world’s “reserve currency” and move international financial transactions to the renminbi, the currency of the People's Republic of China
Having benefited for twenty years from their under-valued currency, importing manufacturing jobs, and exporting lower priced products, China’s comparative advantage is being destroyed by America’s oil and natural gas fracking boom. The Chinese communist authorities are terrified their loss of competitiveness will cause unemployment and the social consequences that flow from it. But with the terms of trade now substantially against China, convincing the world to dump the U.S. dollar as reserve currency and switch to the Chinese “renminbi” is their best hope to try to save tens of millions of manufacturing jobs. 
When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, China’s economy began to implode and inflation skyrocketed from 10% to 25%. The United States, Europe, and Japan saved the Chinese economy by allowing China to devalue their currency by 68% and gain tariff free export to the world’s largest markets. Under this new communist form of capitalism from 1993 to 2008, China’s economy quadrupled, the U.S. economy doubled, Europe's rose by half, and Japan's stagnated.
Contract manufacturing is a very competitive business and historically had an average profit margin of only 3.5%. This assumes uncontrollable costs of about 75-80% for purchased inputs and 13.5% for energy. The companies primarily compete over managements’ ability to get more or less productivity from an average of 8.5% in labor cost, but China’s labor rates were initially 75% cheaper than the U.S. By moving production to China, manufacturers could often double their profit margins to 7% of sales. Once in China, manufacturers could also discount their sales prices to wipe out U.S. competition.
U.S. trade “experts” in 1993 expected Chinese workers’ total factor productivity (TFP) would be less than a quarter of American workers’ 1.25% annual productivity gain. This may not sound like allot, but over a 15 year period Chinese manufacturers would produce a unit for 95% of original cost and U.S. manufacturers would be producing the same unit for 82% of cost. The “experts” predicted few jobs would be lost to China, and America would gain new markets for high tech manufactured goods. 
Over the next 15 years, China grew the number of assembly workers involved in manufacturing for export to over 200 million workers. America lost about eight million manufacturing jobs to China, 40% of our 20 million production jobs. But even more damaging, every manufacturing job also lost four service jobs and another 1.58 manufacturing jobs from sub-assembly manufacturers who locate near their customer.
China understood that as it sucked manufacturing jobs out of the U.S., the Chinese renminbi currency would be expected to rise in value and destroy their “cheap” labor advantage. As a communist nation, they adopted a national policy of recycling a portion of their export sales revenue into the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds to drive up the value of the U.S. dollar versus the Chinese renminbi.
Keep reading on breitbart >>

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miércoles, octubre 09, 2013

El adiós del ‘helicóptero Ben’

blog.afraidtotrade.com
Ben Bernanke nunca mostró gran pasión por trabajar en la Reserva Federal, o al menos no estuvo tan enamorado del cargo como su predecesor, Alan Greenspan. Es más, se mostró contrario a que la institución se asocie a una única persona. Por eso, a más de tres meses de cumplir su segundo mandato al frente del banco central más poderoso del mundo, se confirma que el 31 de enero de 2014 será su último día.
En ese momento empezará a juzgarle la historia por haber estado al frente del mayor experimento de política monetaria desde que se creó la Reserva Federal. De momento, lo que parece claro, vistas las circunstancias, es que se merece un respiro. El periodo durante el que le tocó dirigir la Fed fue extraordinario en todos los sentidos y eso es algo que no cuestionan ni los más críticos.
Bernanke ya atravesó por alguna dificultad cuando el Senado tuvo que confirmarle para un segundo mandato, porque a un gran número de republicanos y a algunos demócratas les preocupaba la laxitud de su política. Laxitud que llevó a la Fed a dejar los tipos intactos en el 0% desde diciembre de 2008 y a comprar activos de deuda en masa hasta multiplicar por cinco su balance.
El presidente de la Fed, uno de los principales expertos en el estudio de la Gran Depresión, se mostró siempre tranquilo, incluso en los momentos más intensos y complicados de la crisis financiera. Además, estableció una estrecha cooperación y colaboración con el Tesoro de EE UU al salir al rescate del sector financiero tras el colapso de Lehman Brothers, epicentro del seísmo.
La espita de los estímulos sigue abierta. La Fed está comprando deuda pública e hipotecaria a un ritmo de 85.000 millones de dólares al mes. A este ritmo, para cuando deje el cargo acumulará cerca de cuatro billones en su balance. Ese es el legado que deja a su sucesor y también un mercado que se ha acostumbrado a ver como la Reserva Federal le echa una mano cuando lo necesita.
Continuar leyendo en  EL PAÍS >>
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"Hablame"

"EN TIEMPOS DIFÍCILES" - Heberto Padilla

A aquel hombre le pidieron su tiempo

para que lo juntara al tiempo de la Historia.

Le pidieron las manos,

porque para una época difícil

nada hay mejor que un par de buenas manos.

Le pidieron los ojos

que alguna vez tuvieron lágrimas

para que contemplara el lado claro

(especialmente el lado claro de la vida)

porque para el horror basta un ojo de asombro.

Le pidieron sus labios

resecos y cuarteados para afirmar,

para erigir, con cada afirmación, un sueño

(el-alto-sueño);

le pidieron las piernas

duras y nudosas

(sus viejas piernas andariegas),

porque en tiempos difíciles

¿algo hay mejor que un par de piernas

para la construcción o la trinchera?

Le pidieron el bosque que lo nutrió de niño,

con su árbol obediente.

Le pidieron el pecho, el corazón, los hombros.

Le dijeron

que eso era estrictamente necesario.

Le explicaron después

que toda esta donación resultaria inútil.

sin entregar la lengua,

porque en tiempos difíciles

nada es tan útil para atajar el odio o la mentira.

Y finalmente le rogaron

que, por favor, echase a andar,

porque en tiempos difíciles

esta es, sin duda, la prueba decisiva.

Los Aldeanos: "El Socialismo en Tiempos del Colera: Toda Una Nación"

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La columna de Cubanalisis

NEOCASTRISMO [Hacer click en la imagen]

NEOCASTRISMO [Hacer click en la imagen]
¨Saturno jugando con sus hijos¨/ Pedro Pablo Oliva

Seguidores

Carta desde la carcel de Fidel Castro Ruz

“…después de todo, para mí la cárcel es un buen descanso, que sólo tiene de malo el que es obligatorio. Leo mucho y estudio mucho. Parece increíble, las horas pasan como si fuesen minutos y yo, que soy de temperamento intranquilo, me paso el día leyendo, apenas sin moverme para nada. La correspondencia llega normalmente…”

“…Como soy cocinero, de vez en cuando me entretengo preparando algún pisto. Hace poco me mandó mi hermana desde Oriente un pequeño jamón y preparé un bisté con jalea de guayaba. También preparo spaghettis de vez en cuando, de distintas formas, inventadas todas por mí; o bien tortilla de queso. ¡Ah! ¡Qué bien me quedan! por supuesto, que el repertorio no se queda ahí. Cuelo también café que me queda muy sabroso”.
“…En cuanto a fumar, en estos días pasados he estado rico: una caja de tabacos H. Upman del doctor Miró Cardona, dos cajas muy buenas de mi hermano Ramón….”.
“Me voy a cenar: spaghettis con calamares, bombones italianos de postre, café acabadito de colar y después un H. Upman #4. ¿No me envidias?”.
“…Me cuidan, me cuidan un poquito entre todos. No le hacen caso a uno, siempre estoy peleando para que no me manden nada. Cuando cojo el sol por la mañana en shorts y siento el aire de mar, me parece que estoy en una playa… ¡Me van a hacer creer que estoy de vacaciones! ¿Qué diría Carlos Marx de semejantes revolucionarios?”.
¨La patria es dicha de todos, y dolor de todos, y cielo para todos, y no feudo ni capellaní­a de nadie¨ - Marti

"No temas ni a la prision, ni a la pobreza, ni a la muerte. Teme al miedo"
-
Giacomo Leopardi

¨Por eso es muy importante, Vicky, hijo mío, que recuerdes siempre para qué sirve la cabeza: para atravesar paredes¨Halvar de Flake [El vikingo]

"Como no me he preocupado de nacer, no me preocupo de morir" - Lorca

"Al final, no os preguntarán qué habéis sabido, sino qué habéis hecho" - Jean de Gerson

"Si queremos que todo siga como está, es necesario que todo cambie" - Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa

"Todo hombre paga su grandeza con muchas pequeñeces, su victoria con muchas derrotas, su riqueza con múltiples quiebras" - Giovanni Papini


"Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans" - John Lennon

"Habla bajo, lleva siempre un gran palo y llegarás lejos" - Proverbio Africano

"No hay medicina para el miedo" - Proverbio escoces

"El supremo arte de la guerra es doblegar al enemigo sin luchar"
- Sun Tzu

"You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother" - Albert Einstein

"It is inaccurate to say I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office" - H. L. Menken

"I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation. We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented" - Elie Wiesel

"Stay hungry, stay foolish" -
Steve Jobs

"If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert , in five years ther'ed be a shortage of sand" - Milton Friedman

"The tragedy of modern man is not that he knows less and less about the meaning of his own life, but that it bothers him less and less" - Vaclav Havel

"No se puede controlar el resultado, pero si lo que uno haga para alcanzarlo" -
Vitor Belfort [MMA Fighter]

Liborio

Liborio
A la puerta de la gloria está San Pedro sentado y ve llegar a su lado a un hombre de cierta historia. No consigue hacer memoria y le pregunta con celo: ¿Quién eras allá en el suelo? Era Liborio mi nombre. Has sufrido mucho, hombre, entra, te has ganado el cielo.

Para Raul Castro

Cuba ocupa el penultimo lugar en el mundo en libertad economica solo superada por Corea del Norte.

Cuba ocupa el lugar 147 entre 153 paises evaluados en "Democracia, Mercado y Transparencia 2007"

Cuando vinieron

Cuando vinieron a buscar a los comunistas, Callé: yo no soy comunista.
Cuando vinieron a buscar a los sindicalistas, Callé: yo no soy sindicalista.
Cuando vinieron a buscar a los judíos, Callé: yo no soy judío. Cuando vinieron a buscar a los católicos, Callé: yo no soy “tan católico”.
Cuando vinieron a buscarme a mí, Callé: no había quien me escuchara.

Reverendo Martin Niemöller

Martha Colmenares

Martha Colmenares
Un sitio donde los hechos y sus huellas nos conmueven o cautivan

CUBA LLORA Y EL MUNDO Y NOSOTROS NO ESCUCHAMOS

Donde esta el Mundo, donde los Democratas, donde los Liberales? El pueblo de Cuba llora y nadie escucha.
Donde estan los Green, los Socialdemocratas, los Ricos y los Pobres, los Con Voz y Sin Voz? Cuba llora y nadie escucha.
Donde estan el Jet Set, los Reyes y Principes, Patricios y Plebeyos? Cuba desesperada clama por solidaridad.
Donde Bob Dylan, donde Martin Luther King, donde Hollywood y sus estrellas? Donde la Middle Class democrata y conservadora, o acaso tambien liberal a ratos? Y Gandhi? Y el Dios de Todos?
Donde los Santos y Virgenes; los Dioses de Cristianos, Protestantes, Musulmanes, Budistas, Testigos de Jehova y Adventistas del Septimo Dia. Donde estan Ochun y todas las deidades del Panteon Yoruba que no acuden a nuestro llanto? Donde Juan Pablo II que no exige mas que Cuba se abra al Mundo y que el Mundo se abra a Cuba?
Que hacen ahora mismo Alberto de Monaco y el Principe Felipe que no los escuchamos? Donde Madonna, donde Angelina Jolie y sus adoptados around de world; o nos hara falta un Brando erguido en un Oscar por Cuba? Donde Sean Penn?
Donde esta la Aristocracia Obrera y los Obreros menos Aristocraticos, donde los Working Class que no estan junto a un pueblo que lanquidece, sufre y llora por la ignominia?
Que hacen ahora mismo Zapatero y Rajoy que no los escuchamos, y Harper y Dion, e Hillary y Obama; donde McCain que no los escuchamos? Y los muertos? Y los que estan muriendo? Y los que van a morir? Y los que se lanzan desesperados al mar?
Donde estan el minero cantabrico o el pescador de percebes gijonese? Los Canarios donde estan? A los africanos no los oimos, y a los australianos con su acento de hombres duros tampoco. Y aquellos chinos milenarios de Canton que fundaron raices eternas en la Isla? Y que de la Queen Elizabeth y los Lords y Gentlemen? Que hace ahora mismo el combativo Principe Harry que no lo escuchamos?
Donde los Rockefellers? Donde los Duponts? Donde Kate Moss? Donde el Presidente de la ONU? Y Solana donde esta? Y los Generales y Doctores? Y los Lam y los Fabelo, y los Sivio y los Fito Paez?
Y que de Canseco y Miñoso? Y de los veteranos de Bahia de Cochinos y de los balseros y de los recien llegados? Y Carlos Otero y Susana Perez? Y el Bola, y Pancho Cespedes? Y YO y TU?
Y todos nosotros que estamos aqui y alla rumiando frustaciones y resquemores, envidias y sinsabores; autoelogios y nostalgias, en tanto Louis Michel comulga con Perez Roque mientras Biscet y una NACION lanquidecen?
Donde Maceo, donde Marti; donde aquel Villena con su carga para matar bribones?
Cuba llora y clama y el Mundo NO ESCUCHA!!!

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