CONTRA EL PINGALISMO CASTRISTA/ "Se que no existe el consuelo que no existe la anhelada tierrra de mis suenos ni la desgarrada vision de nuestros heroes. Pero te seguimos buscando, patria,..." - Reinaldo Arenas

Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Economia China. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Economia China. Mostrar todas las entradas

lunes, marzo 17, 2014

Sina Weibo and Alibaba, the Chinese E-Giants Coming to U.S.

www.crunchbase.com
Two of the biggest Internet companies in the world are going public in the United States, but most Americans have never heard of Chinese powerhouses Weibo Corp. and Alibaba.
Despite both companies' lack of recognition in the U.S., they are poised to make massive stock-market debuts in New York — and make a play to become household names in America, too.
Sina Weibo
Weibo kicked off the buzz on Friday, when the company filed paperwork to raise $500 million in an initial public offering.
The company owns Sina Weibo, China's largest microblogging site. Sina Weibo is similar to Twitter, with short posts from brands, celebrities and regular folks.
The site has managed to grow rapidly — the service had more than 129 million active users as of December, up 77 percent in just two years — despite a tightly controlled media environment in China. Hundreds of Weibo users have reportedly been arrested in China over posts that angered the government.
Sina Weibo does have a small English-language section featuring celebrity users like David Beckham, Tom Cruise and British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Sina Weibo is still big and buzzy, but it has also struggled to retain its cachet amid the rise of apps like Tencent's WeChat: a rival to the WhatsApp service that Facebook is planning to buy for $16 billion. 
Alibaba: China's Amazon, eBay, PayPal and more
E-commerce behemoth Alibaba Group is more difficult to describe. It has been described as China's Amazon, eBay and PayPal wrapped into one. But Alibaba isn't a perfect mirror of any of those U.S. counterparts, and its scope is much broader.
Alibaba followed Sina Weibo's news by revealing its own plans on Sunday: a New York debut that could reportedly raise $15 billion for the company. While Alibaba hasn't filed its official paperwork yet, its stock-market debut is slated to be the buzziest since that of Facebook.
The company said in its announcement on Sunday that the U.S. IPO "will make us a more global company and enhance the company’s transparency, as well as allow the company to continue to pursue our long-term vision and ideals."
Alibaba employs about 20,000 people in more than 70 offices in China, Singapore, India and the United States. The company's nine major businesses span all parts of the e-commerce process, and they're split between consumer- and business-focused missions.
On the consumer side, Alibaba's crown jewel is Taobao Marketplace: an eBay-like online shopping site with a whopping 760 million product listings as of March 2013, the most recent data available. According to Internet site ranking company Alexa, it's the 8th most popular site in the world and the No. 3 site in China.
The more upscale Tmall sells brand-name goods from from 70,000 global companies including Apple, Nike, Gap and Adidas. ETao is a search engine exclusively for shopping, which lets users hunt for products, coupons, hotels and more. Alibaba also runs a Groupon competitor called Juhuasuan.But Alibaba was founded for businesses, and that legacy continues. The namesake Alibaba.com is a trading site that connects small businesses with two million suppliers. Both 1688.com and AliExpress focus on the wholesale marketplace. The PayPal-like Alipay is the biggest third-party online payment platform in China, and Aliyun.com sells cloud computing and data services to other companies.
Alibaba's CEO is the charismatic Jack Ma, who created the company in 1999 with 17 co-founders working out of an apartment in Hangzhou, China. Unlike many of the dot-coms that went bust during that time, Alibaba became profitable just three years later. That attracted big investors like Yahoo, which currently owns about a quarter of Alibaba, and Japan's Softbank, which owns about 37 percent.
Like Sina Weibo, however, Alibaba also faces competition. The large Chinese investment firm Tencent announced this month that it will buy a 15 percent in JD.com, the country's No. 2 e-commerce company.



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viernes, enero 31, 2014

Political Calculations: China's Rebalancing Economy

Last week, news that China's economy is slowing down contributed to investor fears in world stock markets, sending equity prices lower. Not trusting Chinese GDP statistics, which have long been considered to be off target, we turned to the data that the U.S. Census Bureau reports on the value of trade between the U.S. and China to get a clearer picture of what's going on within China's economy.
Our chart below shows the exchange rate adjusted value of the year-over-year growth rate of trade between the two nations from January 1986 through November 2013, the most recent month for which that data is available at this writing: 

Keep reading Here >>
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domingo, diciembre 08, 2013

China derrumba al Bitcoin


bitcoin
Imagen de Bitcoincharts.com
China prohibió hace unos días el uso de Bitcoins por instituciones financieras, algo que afectó bastante a la moneda, ya que ahora Baidu (el “Google chino”) y China Telecom han dejado de aceptar bitcoins, derrumbando su valor y dejándolo a poco más de 700 dólares la unidad.
Baidu anunció esta semana que ya no aceptaría la moneda digital como forma de pago, lo hizo como respuesta al Banco de China, informando que las últimas grandes fluctuaciones en el valor de Bitcoin hace difícil salvaguardar los intereses de los usuarios.
Después de haber alcanzado los 1000 dólares por bitcoin a finales de noviembre (llegó a 1200 dólares en algunos momentos), parecía que no había freno para esta fiebre. Ni las noticias sobre los robos de bitcoins en ciertos sitios especializados en compra y venta de la moneda, ni la falta de garantía de muchos de ellos parecía afectar a los que siguen invirtiendo en la moneda de 2013, año en el que ha obtenido más atención en la web (el bitcoin fue creado en 2009).
Está claro que China es un mercado suficientemente potente como para afectar a todas las monedas del mundo, incluidas las “virtuales”; es allí donde se encuentran algunas de las mayores infraestructuras que minan Bitcoins, gigantescos ordenadores conectados entre ellos con el único objetivo de crear “monedas”. El Bitcoin es algo más que una moda, y es necesario que se entienda de esa forma para que pueda seguir sobreviviendo de forma independiente.

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sábado, noviembre 30, 2013

The Disappearance of China's Re-Education Camps | Foreign Affairs

By John Delury
Inmates listen to a speech, Shanxi province, September 1, 2010. (Courtesy Reuters)
Advocates for the rule of law in China won a victory two weeks ago when the most Kafkaesque aspect of the country’s penal system was officially slated for abolition. The system of laodong jiaoyang, or laojiao for short, translates, innocuously enough, to “re-education through labor.” In practice, laojiao is a system of punishment for misfits -- from drug addicts to political critics -- whose rehabilitation is deemed to require years of forced labor without the benefit of a trial or even a chance to hear formal charges. It is a remnant of Maoist Communism that is entirely at odds with the country’s contemporary capitalist sheen.
When the Chinese Communist Party plenum, an annual conclave of top leaders, announced its intention to do away with the system, it was rightly considered a major test of new president Xi Jinping’s determination to reform the country’s political system. But it is far too soon to conclude whether he has passed the test. Xi’s decisions at the recent plenum -- which included creating high-level commissions to coordinate foreign policy, domestic security, and economic reform, strengthening the market and shrinking the state’s role in the economy, and easing the one-child policy -- have mostly served to clarify the battle lines in the Chinese political establishment over issues of reform. In the case of laojiao, those battle lines are especially entrenched, given that they were drawn in the beginnings of China’s Communist era.
Keep reading on Foreign Affairs >>
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jueves, mayo 16, 2013

China's female workforce: Factory girls

EconomistMagazine


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martes, febrero 12, 2013

China Surpasses U.S. in International Trade

In 2012, China became the world's biggest trading nation, with the total value of that nation's exports and imports surpassing those of the United States. Bloomberg reports:
U.S. exports and imports of goods last year totaled $3.82 trillion, the U.S. Commerce Department said last week. China’s customs administration reported last month that the country’s trade in goods in 2012 amounted to $3.87 trillion.
Since we have the data, we thought it might be interesting to see just what portion of China's volume of trade is with the United States. Our charts below show the component data for what the U.S. has imported from China, and also what the U.S. has exported to China in each month since January 1985, in terms of each nation's currency (click the images for larger versions):
Value of U.S. Exports to China, January 1985 - December 2012Value of U.S. Imports from China, January 1985 - December 2012
Taking the data just for 2012, we find that the total value of goods and services China either imported from or exported to the U.S. adds up to $536.2 billion U.S. dollars. With a total trade volume of $3.87 trillion U.S. dollars in 2012, China's trade with just the United States accounts for 13.9% of all its international trade activity. Applying similar math for the United States reveals that the U.S.' trade with China accounts for 14.0%, or just under 1/7th, of all its international trade activity.
More at politicalcalculations >>
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viernes, febrero 01, 2013

Data Freak: Behind mild China data, signs rebound is intact

ReutersVideo

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lunes, enero 14, 2013

Pollution highlights the price China is paying for rapid development

Skyscrapers are obscure by heavy haze in Beijing Sunday, Jan. 13, 2013. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

By
Beijing has developed into an impressive modern city over the past two decades. But a tourist visiting the Chinese capital over the past four days would have difficulty seeing many of its ancient and modern landmarks because of the horrendous pollution hanging over the city.
China's capital has been notorious for its smog over the past few years, as have most northern Chinese cities.
In Beijing, the smog unexpectedly appears and is likely to be when there is no wind to blow away the pollution, as is the case at the moment.
At first you believe, charitably, it’s just morning mist.  But it doesn't disappear and just lingers all day.
More than 20 years ago, when I first visited, Beijing, like many Chinese cities, was a very different place.
There was only the odd skyscraper and factory. Most people used bicycles to get around rather than the car.
The smog seems to have just enveloped the city, making it dangerous for people to even go outdoors.
With the current levels of pollution, it might be healthier to sit in your car for hours in a traffic jam and let the air filters do their work rather than breathe in the polluted air as you cycle around Beijing. 
The smog seems to have just enveloped the city, making it dangerous for people to even go outdoors.
The Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center is recommending that children and the elderly stay indoors.

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lunes, diciembre 31, 2012

Factory data highlights China's balancing act

ReutersVideo

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lunes, diciembre 24, 2012

Inside China's Secret Arsenal

popsci.com
In a single generation, China has transformed itself from a largely agrarian country into a global manufacturing and trading powerhouse. China’s economy is 20 times bigger than it was two decades ago and is on track to surpass the United States’ as the world’s largest. But perhaps most startling has been the growth of China’s ambitious and increasingly powerful military.
Just 10 years ago, the budget for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was roughly $20 billion. Today, that number is more like $100 billion. (Some analysts think it’s closer to $160 billion.) The PLA’s budget is only a sixth of what the U.S. devotes to defense annually, but defense dollars go much further in China, and in the years ahead, Chinese military spending will grow at the same rate as its economy. Meanwhile, Chinese president Hu Jintao has called for the PLA to carry out “new historic missions” in the 21st century—to move beyond the traditional goal of defending the nation’s sovereignty and develop the global military reach of a true world superpower. In some cases, China’s increasing international presence could lead to greater cooperation with the U.S., as it did in 2008 when China joined antipiracy patrols off Somalia. But if American and Chinese forces end up in the same place with different goals, the result could be a standoff between two of the best-equipped militaries in the world.


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viernes, noviembre 30, 2012

China’s $3.8 Trillion Hemorrhage

Follow The Money

http://dailyreckoning.com/chinas-3-8-trillion-hemorrhage/
As we covered yesterday, China is starting to hemorrhage money.
How much?
Over the past decade, about $3.8 trillion has left China illicitly. The trend, if you’ll recall yesterday’s discussion, is accelerating. Somewhere around $50 billion per month is flooding out of China.
Today I want to cover the final ramifications of this monetary hemorrhage, and why it matters to your investments and your wealth…
At the individual level, what’s a Chinese saver to do? Over the past decade, the Chinese have sought wealth preservation, if not investment returns, in China’s stock market, as well as in Chinese property markets. These ideas worked out well for some Chinese investors, but not for others. Plus, as I mentioned yesterday, the Chinese buy gold — lots of it.
In addition to investing in Chinese assets — stocks, property, gold, etc. — there’s long been anecdotal evidence of Chinese moving funds offshore in shady ways, as illustrated by the Vancouver story about suitcases full of cash. In other times and other places, I’ve heard similar stories of Chinese suitcase money: in Russia, across the Middle East, in Africa and South America.
There’s an old saying in the field of statistics that “The plural form of the word anecdote is data.” And recently, a number of investigators have gained access to much more hard data about how much Chinese money has moved overseas. The amount of money is huge, to the point of shocking.
When it comes to funds that have moved away from China — and the fate of the individual owners is something else entirely — we’re dealing with what The Economist magazine recently called a form of “voluntary exile.”
The bottom line is that large numbers of Chinese are moving money offshore, by hook or by crook. According to Hurun Report — a Shanghai-based service that caters to a very upscale clientele — the average wealthy Chinese (defined as having a net worth over 10 million yuan, or about $1.6 million) holds 19% of his assets overseas.
Meanwhile, per Hurun, 85% of wealthy Chinese plan to send their children to school outside China, while 44% have plans to emigrate at some point in their life. In and of itself, that’s hardly a ringing endorsement for the future livability of China.
Also, according to a report issued Oct. 25, 2012, by the Washington, D.C.-based Global Financial Integrity (GFI) group, almost $3.8 trillion (yes, trillion!) illegally exited the Chinese economy between 2000 and the end of 2011. About $602 billion left China in just 2011, so the trend is accelerating.
Indeed, if about $50 billion per month ($602 billion divided by 12 months) left China in 2011, it’s no wonder that, for the past year, we’ve seen market-moving reports that China’s economy is slowing down. Perhaps China’s economy isn’t so much “slowing down,” in many respects, as it’s decapitalizing due to illicit outflows.
In the GFI report, the authors state that there are “serious questions about the stability of the Chinese economy.” Furthermore, per the report, “If outflows continue to ratchet upward, adverse repercussions on social and political stability cannot be ruled out.”
In other words, the massive, illicit capital outflows from China contribute to a growing sense of economic inequality, as well as pervasive corruption. The principal author of the GFI report, Dev Kar, formerly of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), opined that “The Chinese economy is a ticking time bomb. The social, political and economic order is not sustainable in the long run given such massive illicit outflows.”
The Chinese system is “not sustainable”? Now, that’s a problem.

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sábado, octubre 13, 2012

What China's slowdown means

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jueves, septiembre 20, 2012

The Economist China Hangout

On Thursday 20th September The Economist hosted a live Google+ Hangout on the subject of the rise of China. The conversation was led by our Community Editor, Mark Johnson, and our China Editor, Rob Gifford.

Can China's rise be a peaceful one? Will the country's new leaders transform its politics? How is Chinese society changing?

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viernes, julio 13, 2012

Don't look to China to save the economy this time

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miércoles, mayo 30, 2012

China slowdown threatens US factory revival

An emerging renaissance in American manufacturing is staring at the oncoming threat of a global economic slowdown.
After investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in high tech equipment last year, Drew Greenblatt’s manufacturing business is beginning to see a return on that investment. Business was up 20 percent in 2011 at Marlin Steel, which makes wire baskets for industrial customers.
Exports are helping a lot. Greenblatt’s company just shipped to China a $20,000 order made at his Baltimore, Md., factory with steel supplied by a mill in Illinois.
Low wages and low-cost manufacturing used to make Chinese markets tough for U.S. manufacturers to break into. Today, rising wages in China are giving American companies second thoughts about moving their manufacturing jobs to China, Greenblatt said. More >>

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viernes, mayo 25, 2012

China's economy suffers 'sharp slowdown'

Image: A construction worker near Xi'an, China

Ryan Pyle  /  The New York Times
A construction worker near Xi'an, China. Many have lost their jobs because developers have been caught in a squeeze for money.
By

A nationwide real estate downturn, stalling exports and declining consumer confidence have produced what a Chinese cabinet adviser, quoted on the official government Web site on Thursday, characterized as a “sharp slowdown in the economy.”
Though the Chinese economy continues to expand, construction workers are losing jobs in droves and retail sales grew last month at the slowest pace in more than three years. Investments in fixed assets have increased more slowly this year than in any year since 2001.
The most striking feature of the slowdown is that it extends beyond the coastal provinces, which depend on exports and are closely linked to the global economy, to the country’s far more insular interior, including cities like Xi’an here in northwestern China.
China’s unexpected economic difficulties are starting to unnerve investors in world markets, especially commodity markets, as China is the world’s largest consumer of most raw materials and the second-largest consumer of oil.
A deepening slowdown would ripple across the world economy. Until now, China’s economy barreled ahead mostly unhindered as the main engine of global growth, even as Europe struggled with its government debt crisis and the United States limped along with a crippled housing market.
Cash squeeze Government indexes show real estate prices are falling in more than half of the country’s top 70 urban markets, Xi’an among them. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services and Moody’s each issued reports on Thursday warning that many of China’s real estate developers face a severe cash squeeze as apartment sales slow to a crawl. The developers still owe heavy interest payments on bank loans.
“Weak property developers in China are likely to face a test of their survival this year,” S.& P. said.  More >>

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lunes, abril 16, 2012

Yuan step shows China reform moving forward


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viernes, abril 13, 2012

The end of cheap China

By

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miércoles, abril 11, 2012

The Manufacturing Wage U.S. vs. China Gap is Shrinking

The Daily Reckoning

How a 17-Year-Old Girl's Suicide Attempt Changed Everything You Knew About Investing

This story will surprise even the most seasoned investor...
and could lead to the most-important investing trend
since the Industrial Revolution


After working 12-hour days for a month, Tian Yu still had not received her salary card. Totally broke, exhausted and frustrated... she climbed to the fourth floor of her dormitory and jumped.
Unknown to anyone, the 17-year-old changed the world economy forever when she took that desperate leap.
Ms. Yu didn’t die, like she had hoped. But 18-year-old Ma Diangqian did. And so did 16 other Chinese citizens who’ve taken these drastic leaps.
In communist China, suicide is considered a crime against the state. It’s the ultimate form of protest. And Tian, Ma and those 16 other Chinese have made the ultimate sacrifice to protest the low wages and sweatshop-like working conditions.
Together, they’ve incited a small, but growing revolution — one that has already begun to play its part in shifting the investing landscape, not only in China, but right here in America, too.
If you understand the shift that is under way, you’ll be one of the first to take advantage of the most-important investing trend since the Industrial Revolution.
Here’s what I mean...
Slowly, but surely, these protests are working. Chinese wages are now on the rise. Just take a look at this chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Wage Gap As you see, here in America, we’ve seen slow growth in wages. But Chinese wages are increasing at a much faster clip.
Back in 2005, for example, U.S. manufacturing wages were 22 times those of China. Today, that gap has shrunk to under 10 times.
If China wage growth continues at this rate, the U.S./China wage gap will be under five times by 2015.
But wages are just the start of this story. Here’s what I mean...

The Comeback No One Will Believe

It’s no secret that American companies have outsourced production to China for decades. But with Chinese wages increasing, it doesn’t make as much sense to send those jobs overseas now.
Add in high oil prices and the increased cost of transporting goods from China and you could get the great comeback no one is expecting...
The great revival of American manufacturing.
The world, dear reader, is turning.
For you, this turn could change everything about where you should park your money in the coming years...
Certain entrepreneurs, for example, could gain business from this shift back to American production. Other companies will suffer badly as their source of overseas cheap labor vanishes.
Play this global shift correctly and you stand to grow wealthy. Get it wrong, however, and you’ll sacrifice a fortune.
And know this...
The great revival in American manufacturing has already begun to take off, although most people haven’t noticed yet.
Caterpillar, for example, has built a new plant in Georgia where it will manufacture excavators and small tractors.
Intel is investing $8 billion in building and upgrading plants in Hillsboro, Ore....likely the largest capital project in state history. It’s the first new Intel plant built since 2007...and they chose to build it here in the U.S.
The Chicago Tribune reported in 2011, “Nearly written off after decades of stagnation, job losses and overseas outsourcing, the ‘Made in the USA’ label is poised for a comeback.
“A retooled domestic workforce, paired with rising wages abroad, could lead to a renaissance in U.S. manufacturing within five years.”
The trick to profiting from this shift is to not only study the trend on paper, but to put in the legwork and travel required to research the Chinese culture driving this revolution... and trace the steps back to America.
That’s where we can help. And it’s why I’m excited to offer you something we’ve never offered before...
Hi, I’m Doug Hill — Publisher of Laissez Faire Books.
On April 12, we’re hosting a first in our 40-year history: an online event in which we’ll explore five world-shaking events that are sure to impact your financial future.
Tian Yu and her 17 co-workers who’ve incited the revival of the American industry is just one of those trends.
Other trends we’ll explore are...
- WORLD-SHAKING SHIFTS IN POWER: Since the Industrial Revolution, large gaps have existed — primarily in manufacturing might and military power — between the Western world (America and Europe) and everyone else. But since the late 20th century, these gaps began narrowing and continue to narrow today. This shift could change how investors need to act over the next 30 years
- EMERGING MARKETS BECOMING DEVELOPED MARKETS: Emerging markets now account for 50% of global economic activity. Mexico is bigger than Canada. India is bigger than Germany. Turkey is larger than Australia. This trend will end the era of "emerging markets" and put massive pressure on resources for decades as this trend continues
- GLOBAL WATER SHORTAGES: We take clean, drinkable water for granted here is the United States. But for many countries, plentiful water is a luxury. China, Sudan, Iraq, Pakistan and Egypt all need to "manufacture" clean water. This opens up a huge market in emerging markets for global water companies...and investors.
So how can you ride along on this adventure and get the insight behind all of these trends? And what’s the twist behind it being free? Let me first introduce the man behind this story...

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martes, abril 10, 2012

Is China slowing down?


AEI/ John H. Makin*
With problems in the manufacturing, housing, and export sectors in China, we will likely see slower gross domestic product growth for the world’s second largest economy in 2012. China’s leadership is changing for the first time in a decade, and its new leaders have suggested that significant shifts in economic and currency policy are unlikely to occur during the transition. However, should China’s leadership remain content with slower growth, the global economy will suffer. If China’s growth loses momentum in 2012 and is coupled with similar losses in the United States and Europe, the recovery disappointment could well exceed that which appeared in 2010 and 2011. Despite these challenges, China has a unique opportunity to demonstrate its maturity as a player in the global economy. Through stimulus measures to its own economy, China could push for a bigger global economic pie rather than increase its share of a shrinking pie and in the process influence global economic growth in 2012.
Key points in this Outlook:
  • Slumping Chinese manufacturing, housing, and exports suggest slower GDP growth in 2012, and shifts in policy that would reverse this trend are unlikely to occur during China’s leadership transition.
  • In the midst of European economic austerity and looming US tax hikes, China’s slowdown could not come at a worse time.
  • By stimulating its economy, China could promote a worldwide economic recovery this year—but whether the country will contribute to global growth or act in self-interest via currency manipulation remains to be seen. 

China’s economy is slowing down, from a reported 9.2 percent annual rate of growth at the end of last year to approximately 7 percent during the first quarter of this year. Whether China’s growth will reaccelerate later this year depends on the global growth driving Chinese exports and on Chinese government policies—especially credit policies impacting China’s housing market and fiscal measures aimed at spending on infrastructure.
The tangible signs of slowing Chinese growth include a March drop in a manufacturing index that accurately tracks overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The March purchasing manager’s index (PMI) estimate from HSBC Holdings was reported at 48.3 in late March, a four-month low that is down substantially from last year’s level of 52. Interestingly, in contrast to the HSBC index, the official Chinese March PMI index (which was reported at the same time as HSBC’s) rose sharply to 53.1. Most analysts attributed the rise in the official index to seasonal factors that will subsequently be reversed. The fact that most Chinese stocks were down slightly after HSBC’s PMI index was announced suggests that the official PMI figure is not being taken at face value.
While manufacturing is slowing, China is also experiencing a housing slump. During February, housing prices in China declined in 45 of 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics, continuing a trend underway over the past six months. As its economy has slowed, China’s inflation rate has dropped to about 4 percent from last year’s peak of almost 8 percent. China’s slowing internal growth has been accompanied by a sharp drop in exports.
Perhaps not by coincidence, the steady (about 4 percent) trend appreciation of China’s renminbi (RMB) currency appears to have ended since the start of 2012. An end to RMB appreciation makes economic sense from China’s point of view, because less currency strength makes China’s exports less expensive in global markets where growth is slowing. Less currency appreciation also helps China avoid shrinking its share of the smaller global export market. Furthermore, the drop in China’s inflation rate has lessened the need to allow currency strength (lower prices of imported goods) to blunt inflation pressures.
A Change in Currency Policy?
There are also internal political reasons for China to lean toward a trendless currency during 2012. This fall, China’s leadership will change for the first time in a decade as President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao hand over power to their successors. During such transitions, China’s ruling class prefers to avoid abrupt economic changes, especially those tied to currency policy with high external visibility. After the March National People’s Congress, Premier Wen declared that the “RMB exchange rate is probably close to an equilibrium level.”[1]

The premier’s atypically direct statement about the currency underscores the likelihood that the transitional period since 2005—during which the currency’s value has risen substantially—is over. Wen’s declaration that the RMB has reached an “equilibrium” level after substantial appreciation conveys that China’s new leaders may prefer to wait to address the issue of further exchange rate adjustment until after they assume power this November. Going forward, movements in the RMB may be both stronger and weaker, centering on a new equilibrium level.
"More exchange-rate flexibility can help China's economy, notwithstanding the conflicts about currency manipulation a weaker RMB may engender with Cina's trading partners, especially the United States."It is important to recognize that the possibility of two-way exchange rate flexibility also gives China’s ruling Politburo another lever with which to manage the nation’s economy. Should slower growth persist along with falling inflation, a weaker Chinese currency could help stabilize growth and inflation. As China’s economy matures, leaving behind its era of persistently high growth, its leaders are beginning to think of ways to manage the transition. More exchange-rate flexibility can help China’s economy, notwithstanding the conflicts about currency manipulation a weaker RMB may engender with China’s trading partners, especially the United States.
An International Role for the RMB?
China is sending additional currency policy signals consistent with the expectation of somewhat slower economic growth, coupled in turn with the further internationalization of its currency. Internationalization of the RMB would underscore China’s role as a maturing modern economy. China’s efforts to consolidate its newfound prominence include measures to shore up its financial sector to bring it into better alignment with the country’s status as the world’s
second largest producer of goods and services. So far in 2012, China Development Bank has offered a large increase in new RMB loans to Asian countries, to the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, and India, and even to some indebted European countries. Extending RMB loans to more countries encourages the internationalization and growth of China’s still-nascent financial sector in a number of ways.
If, for example, an Italian, Russian, or Indian firm obtains RMB loans, then paying the interest on such loans (not to mention repaying them) is less risky if the borrower receives Chinese currency for the goods it sells globally. RMB borrowers outside China have an extra incentive to invoice their export customers in RMB; this helps them obtain the necessary currency to pay interest and amortization on their loans without incurring the risk of exchange rate changes that might increase the cost of such borrowing in their own currency.

Slower Chinese Growth Increases Global Risks
We can also look at the Chinese growth question in a broader context. The likelihood of a Chinese growth slowdown during 2012 presents, along with Europe’s austerity-induced recession, a headwind that may more than offset the global boost caused by the modest pickup in US economic growth. US growth accelerated to a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from a more tepid rate of 1.8 percent during the third quarter. Most estimates for US growth during the first half of 2012 are for a more modest 2 percent rate, with the still-tepid pace relying heavily on what may be temporary wealth gains tied to higher equity prices.
The modest rise in early 2012 US growth is also associated with the extra tax cuts passed by the US Congress late in 2011, amounting to about $160 billion. These tax cuts represented an extension and expansion of the extra tax cuts passed in late 2010. The US Federal Reserve has also attempted to keep interest rates very low with extra purchases of long-term treasuries and further promises of zero short-term interest rates until well into 2014.
As Europe’s economy has suffered from the fallout of the European debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has further expanded its easing since December with nearly ?1 trillion of additional three-year loans at guaranteed low interest rates to European banks. The ECB’s aggressive monetary ease under its new president, Mario Draghi, aims to help European banks repair their balance sheets in the face of uncertainty about the value of making substantial loans to shaky European governments. This step—along with the February and March “containment” of the acute Greek debt crisis—has helped calm financial markets during the first quarter of 2012.
"The likelihood of a Chinese growth slowdown during 2012 presents, along with Europe's austerity-induced recession, a headwind that may more than offset the global boost caused by the modest pickup in the US economic growth."Adding to the accommodations offered by central banks worldwide, the Bank of Japan chimed in on Valentine’s Day this year with more asset purchases equal to about 2 percent of GDP coupled with a pledge to end Japan’s persistent deflation by targeting 1 percent of actual inflation. The resulting effect has been modest so far with some increase in the stock market and some moderation of the yen’s appreciation.
A striking conclusion about China’s economic growth outlook emerges from this brief overview of the global economy for 2012: it is not a good time for China’s growth to slow down. While US growth was stronger at the end of 2011, the rest of 2012 promises slower growth. The US outlook will become even more problematic at the end of 2012 when already-legislated tax increases and spending cuts take hold. These measures will subtract about four percentage points from early 2013 growth. The measures will need to be considered by a lame-duck Congress after the November 2012 presidential election if any changes are to be made.
Changes in fiscal policy such as not ending tax cuts and not reducing spending from levels specified under current law will add sharply to already large deficits. The American dilemma thus becomes the price of kick-the-can budget policies whereby deficit reduction is postponed and one-more-time tax cuts and spending programs are continued. The fiscal stimulus measures employed since 2009 are meant to provide a temporary boost to growth, yet they will be followed by a growth drag once they are removed. The longer such one-off measures are extended, the larger the fiscal drag will be once they are removed. Hence we will see a prospective large fiscal drag, which will emerge at the end of 2012 under current law when a broad range of tax cuts and some spending measures are removed all at once.
A Leadership Opportunity for China
The questionable outlook for US growth toward the end of 2012—coupled with Europe’s recession and weakness in emerging markets—makes the focus on China’s perspective growth rate over the coming year even more compelling, especially when it comes to determining whether 2012 will witness the same growth disappointments that arose in 2010 and 2011. The supportive policy response in developed markets—more monetary and fiscal stimulus in the United States both in 2010 and 2011 and more monetary stimulus in Europe in 2011—will likely not be repeated. If China’s growth loses momentum during 2012 alongside similar momentum losses in the US and Europe, the recovery disappointment in 2012 could well exceed that which occurred in 2010 and 2011.
What with inflation having dropped well below the 4 percent target set by China’s policymakers and the fiscal deficit having dropped below 2 percent of GDP, China could manage further stimulus. Policymakers should consider additional spending on transportation and rural infrastructure, especially in view of the weakening impact of China’s external sector growth, and tied to the weak growth outlook in the global economy. Whether the desire for no new policy initiatives during China’s current transition to new leadership will prevent new economic stimulus remains to be seen.
China’s new leaders could break with tradition and signal their new outlook on China’s role in the global economy by stepping in to boost growth at a time when the global economy needs help. This kind of initiative would represent an effective way to enhance China’s image as a leading mature economy. Better to push for a bigger global economic pie with extra stimulus than to push for a bigger share of a static or shrinking pie with more currency intervention to keep the RMB undervalued.  More >>
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*John H. Makin (jmakin@aei.org) is a resident scholar at AEI.

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"Hablame"

"EN TIEMPOS DIFÍCILES" - Heberto Padilla

A aquel hombre le pidieron su tiempo

para que lo juntara al tiempo de la Historia.

Le pidieron las manos,

porque para una época difícil

nada hay mejor que un par de buenas manos.

Le pidieron los ojos

que alguna vez tuvieron lágrimas

para que contemplara el lado claro

(especialmente el lado claro de la vida)

porque para el horror basta un ojo de asombro.

Le pidieron sus labios

resecos y cuarteados para afirmar,

para erigir, con cada afirmación, un sueño

(el-alto-sueño);

le pidieron las piernas

duras y nudosas

(sus viejas piernas andariegas),

porque en tiempos difíciles

¿algo hay mejor que un par de piernas

para la construcción o la trinchera?

Le pidieron el bosque que lo nutrió de niño,

con su árbol obediente.

Le pidieron el pecho, el corazón, los hombros.

Le dijeron

que eso era estrictamente necesario.

Le explicaron después

que toda esta donación resultaria inútil.

sin entregar la lengua,

porque en tiempos difíciles

nada es tan útil para atajar el odio o la mentira.

Y finalmente le rogaron

que, por favor, echase a andar,

porque en tiempos difíciles

esta es, sin duda, la prueba decisiva.

Los Aldeanos: "El Socialismo en Tiempos del Colera: Toda Una Nación"

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La columna de Cubanalisis

NEOCASTRISMO [Hacer click en la imagen]

NEOCASTRISMO [Hacer click en la imagen]
¨Saturno jugando con sus hijos¨/ Pedro Pablo Oliva

Seguidores

Carta desde la carcel de Fidel Castro Ruz

“…después de todo, para mí la cárcel es un buen descanso, que sólo tiene de malo el que es obligatorio. Leo mucho y estudio mucho. Parece increíble, las horas pasan como si fuesen minutos y yo, que soy de temperamento intranquilo, me paso el día leyendo, apenas sin moverme para nada. La correspondencia llega normalmente…”

“…Como soy cocinero, de vez en cuando me entretengo preparando algún pisto. Hace poco me mandó mi hermana desde Oriente un pequeño jamón y preparé un bisté con jalea de guayaba. También preparo spaghettis de vez en cuando, de distintas formas, inventadas todas por mí; o bien tortilla de queso. ¡Ah! ¡Qué bien me quedan! por supuesto, que el repertorio no se queda ahí. Cuelo también café que me queda muy sabroso”.
“…En cuanto a fumar, en estos días pasados he estado rico: una caja de tabacos H. Upman del doctor Miró Cardona, dos cajas muy buenas de mi hermano Ramón….”.
“Me voy a cenar: spaghettis con calamares, bombones italianos de postre, café acabadito de colar y después un H. Upman #4. ¿No me envidias?”.
“…Me cuidan, me cuidan un poquito entre todos. No le hacen caso a uno, siempre estoy peleando para que no me manden nada. Cuando cojo el sol por la mañana en shorts y siento el aire de mar, me parece que estoy en una playa… ¡Me van a hacer creer que estoy de vacaciones! ¿Qué diría Carlos Marx de semejantes revolucionarios?”.
¨La patria es dicha de todos, y dolor de todos, y cielo para todos, y no feudo ni capellaní­a de nadie¨ - Marti

"No temas ni a la prision, ni a la pobreza, ni a la muerte. Teme al miedo"
-
Giacomo Leopardi

¨Por eso es muy importante, Vicky, hijo mío, que recuerdes siempre para qué sirve la cabeza: para atravesar paredes¨Halvar de Flake [El vikingo]

"Como no me he preocupado de nacer, no me preocupo de morir" - Lorca

"Al final, no os preguntarán qué habéis sabido, sino qué habéis hecho" - Jean de Gerson

"Si queremos que todo siga como está, es necesario que todo cambie" - Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa

"Todo hombre paga su grandeza con muchas pequeñeces, su victoria con muchas derrotas, su riqueza con múltiples quiebras" - Giovanni Papini


"Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans" - John Lennon

"Habla bajo, lleva siempre un gran palo y llegarás lejos" - Proverbio Africano

"No hay medicina para el miedo" - Proverbio escoces

"El supremo arte de la guerra es doblegar al enemigo sin luchar"
- Sun Tzu

"You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother" - Albert Einstein

"It is inaccurate to say I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office" - H. L. Menken

"I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation. We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented" - Elie Wiesel

"Stay hungry, stay foolish" -
Steve Jobs

"If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert , in five years ther'ed be a shortage of sand" - Milton Friedman

"The tragedy of modern man is not that he knows less and less about the meaning of his own life, but that it bothers him less and less" - Vaclav Havel

"No se puede controlar el resultado, pero si lo que uno haga para alcanzarlo" -
Vitor Belfort [MMA Fighter]

Liborio

Liborio
A la puerta de la gloria está San Pedro sentado y ve llegar a su lado a un hombre de cierta historia. No consigue hacer memoria y le pregunta con celo: ¿Quién eras allá en el suelo? Era Liborio mi nombre. Has sufrido mucho, hombre, entra, te has ganado el cielo.

Para Raul Castro

Cuba ocupa el penultimo lugar en el mundo en libertad economica solo superada por Corea del Norte.

Cuba ocupa el lugar 147 entre 153 paises evaluados en "Democracia, Mercado y Transparencia 2007"

Cuando vinieron

Cuando vinieron a buscar a los comunistas, Callé: yo no soy comunista.
Cuando vinieron a buscar a los sindicalistas, Callé: yo no soy sindicalista.
Cuando vinieron a buscar a los judíos, Callé: yo no soy judío. Cuando vinieron a buscar a los católicos, Callé: yo no soy “tan católico”.
Cuando vinieron a buscarme a mí, Callé: no había quien me escuchara.

Reverendo Martin Niemöller

Martha Colmenares

Martha Colmenares
Un sitio donde los hechos y sus huellas nos conmueven o cautivan

CUBA LLORA Y EL MUNDO Y NOSOTROS NO ESCUCHAMOS

Donde esta el Mundo, donde los Democratas, donde los Liberales? El pueblo de Cuba llora y nadie escucha.
Donde estan los Green, los Socialdemocratas, los Ricos y los Pobres, los Con Voz y Sin Voz? Cuba llora y nadie escucha.
Donde estan el Jet Set, los Reyes y Principes, Patricios y Plebeyos? Cuba desesperada clama por solidaridad.
Donde Bob Dylan, donde Martin Luther King, donde Hollywood y sus estrellas? Donde la Middle Class democrata y conservadora, o acaso tambien liberal a ratos? Y Gandhi? Y el Dios de Todos?
Donde los Santos y Virgenes; los Dioses de Cristianos, Protestantes, Musulmanes, Budistas, Testigos de Jehova y Adventistas del Septimo Dia. Donde estan Ochun y todas las deidades del Panteon Yoruba que no acuden a nuestro llanto? Donde Juan Pablo II que no exige mas que Cuba se abra al Mundo y que el Mundo se abra a Cuba?
Que hacen ahora mismo Alberto de Monaco y el Principe Felipe que no los escuchamos? Donde Madonna, donde Angelina Jolie y sus adoptados around de world; o nos hara falta un Brando erguido en un Oscar por Cuba? Donde Sean Penn?
Donde esta la Aristocracia Obrera y los Obreros menos Aristocraticos, donde los Working Class que no estan junto a un pueblo que lanquidece, sufre y llora por la ignominia?
Que hacen ahora mismo Zapatero y Rajoy que no los escuchamos, y Harper y Dion, e Hillary y Obama; donde McCain que no los escuchamos? Y los muertos? Y los que estan muriendo? Y los que van a morir? Y los que se lanzan desesperados al mar?
Donde estan el minero cantabrico o el pescador de percebes gijonese? Los Canarios donde estan? A los africanos no los oimos, y a los australianos con su acento de hombres duros tampoco. Y aquellos chinos milenarios de Canton que fundaron raices eternas en la Isla? Y que de la Queen Elizabeth y los Lords y Gentlemen? Que hace ahora mismo el combativo Principe Harry que no lo escuchamos?
Donde los Rockefellers? Donde los Duponts? Donde Kate Moss? Donde el Presidente de la ONU? Y Solana donde esta? Y los Generales y Doctores? Y los Lam y los Fabelo, y los Sivio y los Fito Paez?
Y que de Canseco y Miñoso? Y de los veteranos de Bahia de Cochinos y de los balseros y de los recien llegados? Y Carlos Otero y Susana Perez? Y el Bola, y Pancho Cespedes? Y YO y TU?
Y todos nosotros que estamos aqui y alla rumiando frustaciones y resquemores, envidias y sinsabores; autoelogios y nostalgias, en tanto Louis Michel comulga con Perez Roque mientras Biscet y una NACION lanquidecen?
Donde Maceo, donde Marti; donde aquel Villena con su carga para matar bribones?
Cuba llora y clama y el Mundo NO ESCUCHA!!!

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