*** A different attitude to greet Obama’s second inauguration:
Presidential inaugurations are typically a time of celebration and
renewal, and that was certainly true of President Obama’s first
inaugural four years ago. But as Obama is set to begin his second term
on Monday, he confronts an American public that remains in a funk.
According to our new NBC/WSJ poll, just 35% of adults think the nation
is headed in the right direction (down six points from last month); more
than seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the current state of the
economy; and 60% believe the coming year will be a time to hold back and
save because of harder times ahead. Much of this sour mood is
explainable. After all, the country just witnessed a bitter fiscal-cliff
fight right after the election, as well as a national tragedy in
Newtown, CT. Also, a second inaugural is always different than the
first. But it’s also true this isn’t Jan. 2009. “If 2009 was all about
hope,” NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says, “2013 is about the
ability to cope.”
Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images
Two
workers adjust flags on the Capitol as preparations continue for the
second inauguration of President Barack Obama in Washington, DC, on Jan.
17, 2013.
*** But Obama remains popular: Despite this sour attitude, the
American public continues to like Obama. He finds himself with a
job-approval rating at 52% among all adults, and majorities support his
general direction on gun control and immigration reform. As for views on
his qualities as president, Obama gets the best marks for being
easygoing and likeable (61% give him high marks here), having the
ability to handle a crisis (55%), being compassionate (53%), being
knowledgeable and experienced (53%) and being a good commander-in-chief
(51%). His lowest marks come on achieving his goals (44%), working
effectively with Congress (29%) and changing business as usual in
Washington (28%). Also, the public doesn’t have a lot of confidence in
his economic stewardship: Just 36% say they are “very confident” or
“fairly confident” in his ability to promote a strong and growing
economy. The White House will look at these numbers and say, “Phew, at
least expectations are lower this time than they were four years ago.”
And that may very well be true. But the fact remains: The country wants
the economy turned around; it’s the No. 1 message they want to send the
president. And so far, they don’t believe he’s done it, and they are
worried he can’t do it even as they hope he does.
*** The same isn’t true of the GOP, Congress:
Yet just like in last year’s presidential election, Obama and the
Democrats are benefitting from one important thing: They public has MUCH
LESS confidence in the opposition party. According to the poll, 49%
hold a negative view of the Republican Party -- its highest negative
rating in the survey since 2008. (In fact, it’s been higher than 49%
just once in the entire history of the NBC/WSJ poll.) Only 26% have a
positive view of the GOP. By comparison, the Democratic Party has a net
positive rating, with 44% holding a favorable view of the party and 38%
holding an unfavorable one. And the conservative Tea Party movement,
which took off in Obama’s first year as president, also finds its
popularity at an all-time low in the poll, with an upside-down fav/unfav
of 23%/47%. What’s more, just 14 percent of adults approve of Congress’
job (which is near the all-time low in the poll), while 81 percent
disapprove (which is close to its all-time high). By the way, most of
the recent negative movement for the GOP is among core Republicans. The
GOP was already viewed very negatively by Democrats and indies; it
couldn’t really get much worse with those two groups. So this latest
shift for the GOP is due to the fact that a growing number of core
Republicans were not happy with how the party handled the fiscal cliff.
*** On gun control:
Also in the poll, 56% believe that the laws covering the sale of
firearms should be stricter, compared with a combined 42 percent who
want them less strict or kept the same. That’s the most support on this
particular question since 2006, but it’s less than the 60%-70% who
supported stricter gun laws during the 1990s, including when Congress
passed an assault-weapons ban in 1994. But here’s the bigger challenge
for the White House and Democrats: There’s a big divide between gun
owners and non-gun owners. Per the poll, 55% of Republicans say they (or
someone in their household) own a gun, compared with just 27% of
Democrats who say that and 48% of independents. In addition, 61% of
rural respondents have a gun in their households, versus 42% of suburban
respondents and only 29% of urban dwellers. And nearly half of whites
own guns (47%), while just 24% of African Americans, 24% of Latinos, and
34% of those ages 18-34. Bottom line: The members of the Obama
coalition DON’T own guns, while those who are probably represented by a
GOP member Congress DO own guns. If one were to map gun ownership in
American, you’d see most of those folks living in the red congressional
districts. And what does that mean? It’s unlikely the Republican House
will budge on these issues because THEIR constituents will have a
different view.
*** On immigration reform: Attention Marco Rubio: Finally, our
poll shows that -- for the first time -- a majority of Americans (52%)
favor allowing illegal immigrants who hold jobs to apply for legal
status in this country. That’s the good news if you’re a supporter of
comprehensive immigration reform. But here’s the bad news: There’s a big
difference by party. Democrats favor this by a 70%-28% margin. But
independents oppose it 54%-43%, and Republicans oppose it 65%-33%. These
numbers explain why Marco Rubio has spent so much time this week trying
to sell his immigration plan to conservative media. To truly speed up
the politics of immigration, it’s going to take a conservative like
Rubio to persuade other conservatives that this is the path forward.
*** On Organizing for Action: And First Read confirms the news
that Obama's political organization “is forming an outside, nonprofit
group to support the president's legislative agenda. The unprecedented
move gives Obama a way to promote his agenda outside the confines of the
White House and seeks to harness the energy from his re-election
campaign into support for legislation. Democratic officials say the
group, Organizing for Action, will be announced Friday. The nonprofit
will work on key legislative battles, train future leaders and local
issues around the country.” Organizing for Action will be set up as a
501c4 group, but we are told the group WILL have full disclosure of its
donors (either monthly or quarterly); setting it up a 501c4 (as opposed
to a Super PAC) makes it easier to legally coordinate with the White
House. But the Obama folks are conceding a big point here: They can’t do
the things they want to do (like the organizing, etc.) inside the
Democratic Party. If this version of OFA is successful, we’re also told
then don’t be surprised if this becomes Obama’s personal vehicle
post-presidency, a la Bill Clinton’s Clinton Global Initiative.
![NEOCASTRISMO [Hacer click en la imagen]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_5jy0SZhMlaU/SsuPVOlq2NI/AAAAAAAAH1E/4xt2Bwd2reE/S150/ppo+saturno+jugando+con+sus+hijos.jpg)
