Cuba: ¿Y si fuera todo lo contrario?

El Independent

Por Gina Montaner

El Nuevo Herald

A los economistas del Banco Mundial (BM) lo que más les preocupa de la realidad cubana no es la falta de libertad, sino el problema que podría plantearle a la dictadura castrista el deterioro de Venezuela. Será que a veces los números no dejan ver el depauperado bosque.

El pasado miércoles Augusto de la Torre, el economista jefe del BM para América Latina, declaraba, “todos los latinoamericanos sabemos que Cuba está en un proceso de apertura”. Tan contundente afirmación no incluye a los cubanos dentro y fuera de la isla, víctimas de un régimen totalitario que lleva en el poder la friolera de cincuenta y cuatro años, y sin visos de un solo gesto que indique la única apertura real a estas alturas: una transición a la democracia y el fin de la dinastía de los Castro.

La conclusión a la que ha llegado el BM es que las supuestas medidas innovadoras impulsadas por Raúl Castro podrían irse al garete si el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro continúa dando tumbos. El BM considera que la “modernización” de la economía cubana “va muy en serio”, pero Venezuela, cuya fuente de apoyo es crucial para Cuba, podría ser la responsable de un posiblel estancamiento de la restructuración cubana.

No hay duda de que la subsistencia de Cuba depende, en gran medida, de las ayudas millonarias que recibe de Caracas desde que hace quince años el desaparecido Hugo Chávez comenzara a enviarle a la isla más de cien mil barriles de petróleo al día. Una ayuda que no se ha limitado a proveerle crudo, sino alimentos y otros productos de consumo que durante décadas escasearon mientras los cubanos estaban sometidos a la famélica libreta de racionamiento que ahora se impone en la Venezuela del socialismo del siglo XXI.

Pero la política de codependencia económica del castrismo es algo tan antiguo como el propio régimen. Ya desde la década de los sesenta, el único modo de supervivencia de un sistema colectivista que detuvo de golpe el crecimiento económico experimentado en los cincuenta, fue depender de la ayuda que durante treinta años le suministró la antigua Unión Soviética. El economista cubanoamericano Carmelo Mesa-Lago calcula que de 1960 a 1990, cuando colapsa el bloque soviético, la URSS le otorgó a Cuba la astronómica cifra de $65,119 millones en ayudas. El también economista y disidente cubano Oscar Espinosa Chepe declaró al periódico La Vanguardia en 2011 que, “sólo en créditos impagados, los rusos estiman que perdieron unos $20,000 millones de la época, una cifra a mi juicio conservadora”. Espinosa Chepe se preguntaba si, en parte, el descalabro de la economía soviética tuvo que ver con la excesiva carga que para ellos representó el improductivo y parasitario satélite cubano.

Lo cierto es que tras el desmoronamiento de la URSS, los noventa fueron los años de mayor penuria en Cuba. La tenebrosa época del “Periodo Especial”. Precisamente lo que salva a los cubanos de una hambruna que comenzaba a tener las dimensiones de la que se padece en Corea del Norte, fue la mano amiga que le tendió Chávez a su preceptor Fidel Castro.

Lo que parece escapársele a los sesudos economistas del BM es que lo mejor que le podría ocurrir a Cuba es dejar de ser un Estado codependiente de otros, incapaz de salir adelante por sus propios medios y habituado a vampirizar a gobiernos que los subvencionan a cambio de la exportación de sus médicos y de su aparato de inteligencia. ¿Acaso los expertos del BM no saben que el verdadero bienestar debe ir de la mano de la libertad en una sociedad abierta? ¿De qué vale la apertura de paladares, los tímidos y oscilantes permisos a cuentapropistas o los cantos de sirena a inversores extranjeros si los cubanos, que a fin de cuentas tienen derecho a ser el motor del país, no son ciudadanos libres a la hora de diseñar su futuro?

A Cuba le conviene dejar de ser un Estado mantenido. Para Venezuela también sería muy beneficioso desprenderse de la rémora económica que significa La Habana en un momento en el que la fórmula chavista se desgasta aceleradamente y los venezolanos cuestionan la injerencia de Cuba en sus asuntos internos.

Cuando el Muro cayó en Europa del Este y se secó el grifo soviético, Fidel Castro, cuya incapacidad para gestionar el Estado ha sido proverbial, dijo, “para nosotros fue como si dejara de salir el sol”. Me temo que la prosperidad de Cuba depende justo de lo contrario de lo que señala el BM. El día que haya libertad, y no una dictadura codependiente, saldrá el sol en todo su esplendor.

Breakingviews: Central banks at Sea

ReutersVideo 

Incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney's avocation of nominal GDP targeting is a dubious tweak to current policy. The trade's intellectual armoury looks empty, says Breakingviews.

IMF chief hails Canada as economic model for the world

Financial Post

TORONTO — The head of the International Monetary Fund says measures taken to protect Canada’s economy should be a model for countries trying to fix their financial systems.

Christine Lagarde said Thursday that Canada has been a leader in creating policies intended to rein in the build-up of household debt.

“Abroad, Canada is identified by its values of co-ordination and consensus building, which have given your country influence beyond its years,” she said. 

“Building a safe and stable financial system is in the best interests of the global community, but it also serves the self-interest of nations,” she added.

Lagarde made the comments at a dinner held in Toronto by the Canada International Council — an organization created to promote Canada’s position on the world market.

She pointed to the decision by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to boost down payments on new mortgages for homebuyers as an example of restraint that others should follow.

“All of these new reforms comprise the tools so far that will help us shape the future financial system,” she said.

“We must shape the system so it cannot again hold us ransom to the consequences of its failings.”

Lagarde’s speech focused on global financial reforms that while “heading in the right direction,” still haven’t delivered the safer financial system they were designed to create.

“Some financial systems are still under distress and crisis-fighting efforts are inadvertently impeding reforms,” Legarde said.

She singled out Basel III requirements as one of the financial reforms that had “generous implementation timetables,” that have been in development since 2010.

Under the proposed Basel III rules, a bank’s required capital levels must meet certain requirements, amongst other standards. The intention of the rules is to set a standard on key measures of a bank’s health and its ability to endure future economic downturns.

“There are many vested interests working against change and pushback is intensifying,” Legarde said.

“It is interesting how some banks say the new regulations will be too burdensome, but then spend hundreds of millions of dollars lobbying to kill them.”

Canadian banks have been proactive in reinforcing their balance sheets to meet the Basel III requirements ahead of schedule, and are widely considered a model for international banks because they weathered the global recession better than others.

“Most countries have committed to adopt some or all of the new regulations, and some have moved further ahead with their own national policies,” Lagarde said.

“The challenge now is to proceed to the end of the reform path all together.” More >>

Jim Yong Kim named World Bank president

The World Bank named  Jim Yong Kim, Dartmouth College’s president, as its new chief on Monday after an unprecedented competition against nominees from Nigeria and Colombia.

In a statement Monday afternoon, the bank board said it had chosen Kim as the institution’s 12th president to succeed Robert Zoellick when his five-year term ends in June.  More >>

World Bank competition

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Why Jim Yong Kim will be a good World Bank president

Shadow Government/ By Daniel Runde

Jim Yong Kim is the American candidate for the World Bank president. The U.S. supported the European candidate for the IMF and the Europeans will support our candidate for the World Bank. I had assumed it was going to be Hillary Clinton. I was wrong and so were many others.

Overall, an out of the box pick and a clever pick in terms of responding to the expected lines of attack to a U.S. candidate. At the end of the day, the Europeans owe us this one after we helped them with the IMF, so ignore any manufactured "drama" about his candidacy being in question.

An initial set of thoughts:

1) Dr. Kim is a dual national both Korean and U.S. He helps respond to the criticism that the U.S. "holds" the World Bank. Perhaps Indra Nooyi's dual nationality was an issue for the White House because putting an Indian in such a role would have likely been "vetoed" by the Chinese.

Also, Dr. Kim's family will have experienced the power of prosperity and development in their own lives through the success of South Korea. South Korea and Ghana famously had the same GNP per capita in 1960. South Korea is now a donor nation and one of the world's largest economies. Dr. Kim's life experience is an asset.

2) Dr. Kim, as a College president has to manage a fractious board, a tenured faculty and deal with donors who want constant attention while also trying to provide thought leadership. The World Bank's staff are (too) pampered with many many privileges -- just like a tenured faculty. The World Bank's board is like a college board of directors -- only larger and more of a micro-manager than a college board of directors. The World Bank's donors -- including the U.S. congress demand constant attention -- just like college donors do. From that standpoint, he also is an interesting pic.

3) Dr. Kim, as a global health expert, answers the criticism that past World Bank Presidents "do not come with development expertise."

4) Tim Geithner is a prominent alum of Dartmouth and thus knows Dr. Kim, and the Treasury Department is the lead agency when it comes to the World Bank for the U.S. Government. This is how Dr. Kim would have been put on the table.

5) Dr. Kim's challenge is that the big opportunities for the World Bank are not in the global health arena and the World Bank will not be the leader in global health going forward. He will need to pick lieutenants who bolster him in three areas. First, in terms of bolstering the World Bank's work in the private sector, a strong banker with development experience would be a good pick for the IFC job (which is also open) -- my recommendation would be someone like the Dutchman, Michael Barth, former head of FMO (the Dutch OPIC) and former World Bank and IFC Director (if an American could get that job, I would nominate the American Elizabeth Littlefield, the very highly regarded CEO of OPIC for the top job at IFC). Second, Dr. Kim needs to elevate the role of governance in the World Bank with a new Vice Presidency for Governance. He should pick someone such as the prominent Chilean economist Dani Kaufman for such a role. Third, he needs to strengthen the World Bank's ability and processes to work in conflict zones and post conflict zones regardless of the vocal objections of the World Bank staff. He should pick a former staffer for that and create a Vice Presidency for Conflict and Fragile States and make it a fast track career path. I would recommend he names someone like the American Dennis De Tray, former Bank Country director and former adviser to General Petraeus, for this role.

World Bank chief Robert Zoellick will step down

The World Bank announced Wednesday that its top official Robert Zoellick would leave his post when his five-year term expires on June 30th.

Zoellick said in a statement, “I’m very pleased that when the world needed the Bank to step up, our shareholders responded with expanded resources and support for key reforms that made us quicker, more effective and more open.”

Read more at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/2012/02/15/gIQAzVRjFR_story.html

Cuba vive "momento propicio" para volver a FMI y BM, según experto de EEUU

y everleny [omar] lo vincula al levantamiento del embargo. mejor ni cuando la era brezhnev.
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AFP/

Cuba, inmersa en una ambiciosa reforma económica, vive "el momento propicio" para procurar su "readmisión" al Fondo Monetario Internacional y al Banco Mundial, que abandonó hace casi medio siglo, opinó este jueves el reconocido economista estadounidense Richard Feinberg.

"Después de casi 50 años de alejamiento, ahora que tanto las IFI (instituciones financieras internacionales) como la economía cubana operan bajo nuevos lineamientos, el momento resulta propicio para un diálogo renovado", sostuvo Feinberg, que trabajó con los gobiernos estadounidenses de Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) y Bill Clinton (1993-2001).

"No existe reclamación ni contra-reclamación pendientes (...), el expediente está limpio en caso de que Cuba procurase su readmisión" a esos organismos, escribió Feinberg en un artículo publicado en la página digital de la revista cubana Temas. Mas >>

IMF report: Global economy is slowing sharply

washingtonpost.com.
The world economy is slowing sharply, and the euro region headed for recession this year, the International Monetary Fund predicted Tuesday in a bleak update of global conditions.  Overall, the world economy is expected to expand 3.25 percent in 2012 -- down from the 4 percent projected by the IMF in the fall.

That figure includes 8.2 percent growth in China, still the world’s most quickly expanding economy, and 7 percent in India. U.S. Growth is forecast at 1.8 percent, the same as the fund projected in the fall.  In those cases and for the rest of the world, the IMF said growth was being crimped by what remains the world’s major economic risk -- the ongoing financial crisis in the euro zone.  In a trio of reports released Tuesday morning, the IMF forecasts a “mild recession” for the 17-nation euro zone this year, and warns that matters could easily worsen.  More at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/imf-report-global-economy-to-hit-mild-recession/2012/01/24/gIQAWR6SNQ_story.html

Why Cuba Is Not Part of the IMF, WB & IDB

Richard Feinberg. Photo: irps.ucsd.edu

By Dawn Gable/ HAVANA TIMES, Nov 21 — 

“Cuba has no principled position against relations with the IMF or World Bank,” a senior Cuban diplomat told Dr. Richard Feinberg, former special assistant to President Clinton and senior director of the National Security council’s office on inter American affairs, adding that Cuba does not necessarily need to agree with all of the activities of an international organization in order to be a member of it, the UN and the WTO being two examples. More >