Report: Leaked emails indicate Syria president got advice from Iran

By msnbc.com staff and news services

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took advice from Iran on how to handle the uprising against his rule, according to several thousand emails apparently received and sent by the Syrian leader and his wife, the Guardian newspaper of London reported Wednesday.

Assad also received details about Western journalists in Homs and was urged to "tighten the security grip" on the opposition-held city in November, The Guardian said, citing more than 3,000 emails that activists shared with the newspaper after downloading them from private accounts belonging to Assad and his wife, Asma.

The messages were intercepted by members of the opposition Supreme Council of the Revolution group between June and early February, the Guardian said.

The documents emerged on the eve of the rebellion’s first anniversary, a day that also saw Saudi Arabia close its embassy in Damascus and ahead of a United Nations briefing by crisis envoy Kofi Annan, who completed a peace mission to Syria to end violence that has already cost 8,000 lives.

The email messages appear to show Asma spending thousands of dollars over the internet for designer goods such as candlesticks, tables and chandeliers while Assad swapped entertaining internet links on his iPad and downloaded music from iTunes.  More >>

At the Poker Table with Bibi and Barack | FrontPage Magazine

FrontPage Magazine/ by Daniel Greenfield

As Netanyahu’s plane crossed the vast distance of the Atlantic Ocean, he must have thought that the oceanic gap was small compared to the diplomatic gap with the Obama administration. This time around there were no visible hostilities or outbursts. With an election coming up, Obama is less eager to humiliate Netanyahu, and Netanyahu does not seriously expect that a passionate appeal will get through to Obama.

Both men know the nature of the game they are playing, but neither of them expects much of the other.

Netanyahu does not believe that he can get Obama to set a firm “red line” that will trigger military action. For all the talk about “having Israel’s back”, the administration has not been willing to set such a “red line” in public or private, which makes all the assurances completely worthless. Without that “red line”, no actual commitments have been made, except a commitment to the Sisyphean diplomatic track.

And so Netanyahu has not bothered to seriously push for a “red line.” Any possibility of such a thing was off the table even before he arrived. More >>

Israel shelves Iran military option

www.Sovereign-Investor.com

NEW YORK – Ron Prosor, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations says Jerusalem believes diplomacy is the preferred course to resolve the current nuclear standoff with Iran.
“We should really pursue and focus on the sanctions and the diplomatic elements in trying to bring the regime in Tehran to reassess the way they want to go forward,” explained the Israeli diplomat.

The emphasis on the diplomatic option would appear to be a shift toward the position of the Obama administration which has stressed stepping up the diplomatic and economic pressure on the regime of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“We are very keen, very clear in saying there is still a lot to be done on the diplomatic front that is not being done. … It is a pity that this has taken so much time. … But, I think the sanctions, especially those on the central bank of Iran, can be very effective.  We have to pursue that,” said Prosor in an exclusive interview Friday.

Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are to meet and confer on a host of topics this week in Washington.

At the same time, AIPAC, the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, one of the most influential lobbying bodies on Capitol Hill, holds its yearly convention in Washington.

Addressing the conference, Obama said:

“A nuclear-armed Iran is completely counter to Israel’s security interests. But it is also counter to the national-security interests of the United States.”

The Obama-Netanyahu meeting comes just ahead of “Super Tuesday” which is expected to narrow down the remaining candidates to challenge Obama’s bid for re-election in November.

Israel, Iran and Syria are just a few of the topics under debate and Prosor admitted U.S. presidential politics have impacted on the situation.

“Israel is a very vibrant democracy and is completely aware of the constraints of an election year. We know from our own experiences what can or cannot be done … but, the [U.S.-Israel] relationship is so deep and important that it will override anything else.”

Prosor’s comments came on the heels of recent proclamations by Tehran that it has accelerated its nuclear program by adding a new generation of centrifuges, used to enrich uranium, and raising its current uranium enrichment operation to 20 percent, just shy of the amount needed for nuclear weapons, according to the Pentagon. More >>

Obama to AIPAC: Diplomatic pressure will bring Tehran to the right decision

DEBKAfile Special Report

US President Barack Obama and Israeli President Shimon Peres in addressing the opening of the pro-Israeli lobby AIPAC convention in Washington, Sunday, March 4, condemned a nuclear Iran as a threat to the US, Israel and the world. President Obama urged the efficacy of diplomacy backed by pressure since “Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon” and there was still time for Iran’s leaders to make the right decision. debkafile: Iran has used this policy to accelerate its nuclear program as never before.

Obama won't hesitate to use force: wishtv.com

Read more >>

Striking Iran and the Myth of Regional War

Daniel Greenfield

In 2007, Israeli Air Force jets crossed into Syria and destroyed an Iranian-backed nuclear reactor. The operation had the backing of the United States and employed intelligence derived from an Iranian defector. There was no regional war afterward. Not even an exchange of fire at the Israeli-Syrian border.

In 1981, Israel struck deep inside Iraq, destroying Saddam’s Osirak reactor. The attack was universally condemned at the United Nations and even by Israel’s allies. Had Saddam used it as the basis for a war, Israel would have had no international support at all. But again no war followed.

Today, Iran and opponents of any attack on its nuclear program hold up the specter of a regional war that will drag in the United States, devastate the region and drive up oil prices. This is the only card in their deck until the mullahs have their own bomb, and it’s an effective card to play. But is any of that a serious risk?

Let’s start by looking at the current state of the Iranian regime. The regime is wildly unpopular at home. It had to use its Revolutionary Guard corps to violently suppress protests against the regime, it does not trust its own military and without troops loyal to it close to home, the regime would be gone faster than you can say Nicolai Ceausescu. (If you have trouble saying that, substitute the fallen dictator of your choice.)

Iran has repeatedly attacked American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan; its terrorists have attacked Israel and Jews around the world, but those attacks amount to terrorism and guerrilla warfare mostly carried out by secondary actors. It’s quite different from committing to a major conflict, which will give the regime a choice between either keeping its loyalist Revolutionary Guard at home and sending unreliable conventional troops off to fight and possibly turn on it, or sending off its trusted troops and leaving its leaders naked to the people’s wrath. More >>

Fears grow of Israel-Iran missile shootout

By Robert Windrem
NBC News

With tensions between Israel and Iran running sky high over the latter’s nuclear program, U.S. officials and military analysts are growing increasingly concerned that Israel will launch a multi-phase air and missile attack that could trigger waves of retaliatory missile strikes from Tehran. 

Such a shootout could quickly spiral into a regional conflict that would potentially force the U.S. to intervene to protect its interests. 

The emerging consensus among current and former U.S. officials and other experts interviewed by NBC News is that that an Israeli attack would be a multi-faceted assault on key Iranian nuclear installations, involving strikes by both warplanes and missiles. It could also include targeted attacks by Israeli special operations forces and possibly even the use of massive explosives-laden drones, they say. 

The Iranian response to such an attack is uncertain, but many experts and officials believe it is likely to include retaliatory missile strikes. Iran has more missiles in its arsenal than Israel, according to some estimates, and has the capability of striking targets in most Israeli population centers. More >>

What Happens After Israel Attacks Iran

This article is part of a Foreign Affairs package: The Iran Debate -- To Strike or Not to Strike?

Since its birth in 1948, Israel has launched numerous preemptive military strikes against its foes. In 1981 and 2007, it destroyed the nuclear reactors of Iraq and Syria, operations that did not lead to war. But now, Israelis are discussing the possibility of another preemptive attack -- against Iran -- that might result in a wider conflict.

(lrargerich / flickr)

The public debate in Israel about whether Jerusalem should order a strike on Iran’s nuclear program is surprisingly frank. Politicians and policymakers often discuss the merits of an attack in public; over the past year, for example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have sparred regularly and openly with former Mossad director Meir Dagan, the most prominent opponent of an Israeli operation. But much of the conversation is focused on whether Israel should strike, not on what might happen if it does -- in other words, the result on the “day after.”

Israeli policymakers are ignoring several of the potential longer-term consequences of a strike.

Indeed, the analysis in Israel about the possible effects of a bombing campaign against Iran is limited to a small, professional elite, mostly in government and behind closed doors. This intimate circle that does consider scenarios of the “day after” concentrates almost exclusively on what an Iranian response, direct or through proxies, might look like. This is not surprising, given that Israel must worry first and foremost about the immediate military implications of an Iranian counterattack. But in doing so, Israeli policymakers are ignoring several of the potential longer-term aspects of a strike: the preparedness of Israel’s home front; the contours of an Israeli exit strategy; the impact on U.S.-Israel relations; the global diplomatic fallout; the stability of world energy markets; and the outcome within Iran itself. Should Israel fail to openly debate and account for these factors in advance of an attack, it may end up with a strategic debacle, even if it achieves its narrow military goals.

Israeli officials have thought extensively about how the first moves of a military conflict between Jerusalem and Tehran might play out. Ephraim Kam, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and deputy head of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reflected the general consensus in the security establishment when he wrote in the Institute’s 2010 strategic assessment that Iran may respond in two possible ways to an Israeli operation: missile strikes on Israel, either directly or through allied organizations such as Hezbollah or Hamas; or terror attacks, likely on Israeli targets abroad by Iranians or those proxy groups.

A direct Iranian response would involve a missile barrage from Iran onto Israeli territory, similar to the volley of rockets launched at Israel by Iraq during the first Gulf War. Only one Israeli citizen died then, and it seems that Israeli officials estimate that the damage of a similar Iranian strike would be greater, but still limited. This past November, Ehud Barak, referring to possible direct and proxy-based Iranian retaliation, said that “There is no scenario for 50,000 dead, or 5,000 killed -- and if everyone stays in their homes, maybe not even 500 dead.” Barak’s calm also reflects Israel’s previous experience in preempting nuclear threats. Iraq did not respond when Israel destroyed its nuclear facility in 1981, disproving the doomsday predictions made by several Israeli experts prior to the strike, and Syria remained silent when Israel bombed its nascent reactor in 2007.  More >>

Iran boosts nuclear site defences, warns EU on oil

Iran deployed warplanes and missiles Monday in an "exercise" to protect nuclear sites threatened by possible Israeli attacks and warned it could cut oil exports to more EU nations unless sanctions were lifted.

The European Union said it could cope with any halt in Iranian supplies.

Tehran's stance marked a hardening of its defiance in an international standoff over its nuclear programme -- and suggested it was readying for any eventual confrontation.

The moves came the same day as officials from the UN nuclear watchdog agency arrived in Tehran for a second round of talks they said were focused on "the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear programme."  More >>

Iran Oil Ministry: Exports cut to Britain, France

By msnbc.com staff and news services

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran has halted oil shipments to Britain and France, the Oil Ministry said Sunday, in an apparent pre-emptive blow against the European Union after the bloc imposed sanctions on Iran's crucial fuel exports.

The EU imposed tough sanctions against Iran last month, which included a freeze of the country's central bank assets and an oil embargo set to begin in July. Iran's Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi had warned earlier this month that Tehran could cut off oil exports to "hostile" European nations. The 27-nation EU accounts for about 18 percent of Iran's oil exports. 

According to the BBC, Qassemi reaffirmed his stance, claiming the suspension posed no problems for Iran.

Targeting Britain and France appeared to be a political decision by Iran to punish the two countries for supporting tougher sanctions against Iran over its disputed nuclear program.

"Crude oil exports to British and French companies have been halted," Oil Ministry spokesman Ali Reza Nikzad-Rahbar said on the ministry's website. "We have our own customers and have no problem to sell and export our crude oil to new customers."

Britain's Foreign Office declined comment, and there was no immediate response from French officials. More >>

US, Britain urge Israel not to attack Iran

By JOSEF FEDERMAN

The U.S. and Britain on Sunday urged Israel not to attack Iran's nuclear program as the White House's national security adviser arrived in the region, reflecting growing international jitters that the Israelis are poised to strike.

In their warnings, both the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, and British Foreign Minister William Hague said an Israeli attack on Iran would have grave consequences for the entire region and urged Israel to give international sanctions against Iran more time to work. Dempsey said an Israeli attack is "not prudent," and Hague said it would not be "a wise thing."

Both Israel and the West believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb — a charge Tehran denies. But differences have emerged in how to respond to the perceived threat.

The U.S. and the European Union have both imposed harsh new sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector, the lifeline of the Iranian economy. With the sanctions just beginning to bite, they have expressed optimism that Iran can be persuaded to curb its nuclear ambitions.

On Sunday, Iran's Oil Ministry said it has halted oil shipments to Britain and France in an apparent pre-emptive blow against the European Union. The semiofficial Mehr news agency said the National Iranian Oil Company has sent letters to some European refineries with an ultimatum to either sign long-term contracts of two to five years or be cut off. The 27-nation EU accounts for about 18 percent of Iran's oil exports.  More >>

New Delhi's Israeli Embassy Car Bombing: Is Iran Behind the Blast?

Sajjad Hussain / AFP / Getty Images

Investigators inspect the scene of the car bombing near the Israeli embassy in New Delhi on Feb. 13, 2012.

 Global Spin/
“We would be talking in a different tone if it had happened 20 minutes later and her kids were in the car,” a senior Israeli intelligence official told TIME on Monday, commenting on the bomb attack in New Delhi that injured an Israeli diplomat. An eyewitness claimed to have seen a man aboard a motorbike pull up alongside the car carrying Tali Koren Yeshova, 42, and attach an explosive device whose detonation injured Yeshova, her driver, and two bystanders. Yeshova, who had been en route to pick up her children in the Indian capital, has been hospitalized with spinal and liver injuries and is reported to be in “critical but stable” condition. Soon after the blast, which took place around 3 p.m., Israel blamed Iran for the attack, as well as a foiled attempt on the same day to attach a hand-grenade to an Israeli embassy vehicle in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi.

(PHOTOS: A bomb explodes near New Delhi’s Israeli embassy.)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters in Jerusalem that “Iran stands behind the bombers.” Israeli embassies around the world has been on high alert Sunday, the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Imad Mugniyah, former military commander of the Iran-backed Lebanese Shi’ite Hizballah organization.

Iranian officials denied the allegation, while India’s Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna condemned the attack vowed to investigate.

Israeli officials believe the latest attacks are related to a series of as many as ten failed attempts, including one in Thailand and one in Azerbaijan in recent weeks. And they suspect Hizballah, perhaps operating through local proxies, as being the perpetrators.

If Monday’s attacks were related to the Mughniyeh anniversary, Israeli sources said, they highlight just how difficult it has been for Hizballah to replace a mastermind whose resume allegedly included spectacular track bombings of U.S. and French embassies in Beirut in 1983, attacks on the Israeli embassy and a Jewish cultural center in Argentina in 1994 and the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia in 1996, which together claimed hundreds of lives. By comparison, Monday’s attacks appear to have been relatively unimpressive, even amateurish in the case of the Georgian attempt.

Earlier in the evening, Indian television channels showed a burning car around 300 meters away from the Israel embassy in Delhi, which is in a high security zone in the country’s capital, with the Indian Prime Minister’s residence only 500 meters away. Later in the evening, however, the scene at the Israeli Embassy on the six-lane, tree-lined Aurangzeb Road was calm. Three or four security personnel stood around making sure the rush hour traffic moved quickly. The gates to the embassy were closed but not barricaded and floodlights lit up the compound from the inside. The windows facing the street were lit, a sign of the alarm of the embassy officials inside.

David Goldfarb, the spokesman for Israel’s Delhi embassy, said Yeshova’s car was close to the building on Aurangzeb Road when the explosion went off. Syed Akbaruddin, spokesperson of India’s Ministry of External Affairs told TIME that Indian officials are working closely with the Israelis. Officials of the central forensic laboratory were seen collecting evidence at the blast site on Monday evening.

India now finds itself caught in the geo-political mire between Israel and Iran, two countries that both share friendly relations with New Delhi. The coming few weeks will be a test for Indian diplomacy as well as its security establishment. It’s unclear whether Hizballah is gaining a foothold in the country, which has suffered no terrorist attack since a blast at Delhi’s High Court last September. In the grisly 2008 assault on buildings in ritzy south Mumbai, conducted by Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba, a prominent Jewish center was targeted. This is the first prominent attack on a foreign government property in India since the January 2002 attack on the American Center in Kolkata. Monday’s blast has brought the spotlight back on the vulnerability of diplomatic missions in the country. India is not taking any chances and has strengthened its security apparatus across the country to prevent a repeat of Monday’s incident.

—with reporting by Elliot Hannon/New Delhi

Read more: http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2012/02/13/is-iran-behind-a-new-delhi-attack-on-an-israeli-diplomat/#ixzz1mICcbWx0

Ahmadinejad "Jesus WILL Return" (As a Servant to Imam Mahdi) and I will be his President

Uploaded by IranFree1390 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivers a startling message to the people of Britain in an "Alternative" Christmas message.
Jesus WILL return , what he intentionality did not include, was that Jesus will return As a Servant to Imam Mahdi
‫Iran Reza Pahlavi پیام شاهزاده رضا پهلوی به مناسبت نوروز ۱۳۹۰ ایران
Ahmadinejad New Year Message 2008 احمدینژاد پیام سال نو
Nowrūz (Persian: نوروز, IPA: [nouˈɾuːz], "New Day", originally "New Light") is the name of the New Year in Iranian calendars and the corresponding traditional celebrations. Nowruz is also widely referred to as the Persian New Year.

Nowruz is celebrated and observed by Iranian peoples and the related cultural continent and has spread in many other parts of the world, including parts of Central Asia, South Asia, Northwestern China, the Crimea and some groups in the Balkans.

Nowruz marks the first day of spring and the beginning of the year in Iranian calendar. It is celebrated on the day of the astronomical vernal equinox, which usually occurs on March 21 or the previous/following day depending on where it is observed. As well as being a Zoroastrian holiday and having significance amongst the Zoroastrian ancestors of modern Iranians, the same time is celebrated in parts of the South Asian sub-continent as the new year. The moment the Sun crosses the celestial equator and equalizes night and day is calculated exactly every year and Iranian families gather together to observe the rituals.

Originally being a Zoroastrian festival, and the holiest of them all, Nowruz is believed to have been invented by Zoroaster himself, although there is no clear date of origin. Since the Achaemenid era the official year has begun with the New Day when the Sun leaves the zodiac of Pisces and enters the zodiacal sign of Aries, signifying the Spring Equinox.

The Jewish festival of Purim is probably adopted from the Persian New Year. It is also a holy day for Sufis, Ismailis, Alawites, Alevis, and adherents of the Bahá'í Faith.

The term Nowruz in writing, first appeared in Persian records in the 2nd century AD, but it was also an important day during the time of the Achaemenids (c. 648-330 BC), where kings from different nations under the Persian empire used to bring gifts to the Emperor, also called King of Kings (Shahanshah), of Persia on Nowruz. The significance of Nowruz in the Achaemenid empire was such that the great Persian king Cambyses II's appointing as the king of Babylon was legitimized only after his participation in the New Year festival (Nowruz).

The UN's General Assembly in 2010 recognized the International Day of Nowruz, describing it a spring festival of Persian origin which has been celebrated for over 3,000 years. During the meeting of The Inter-governmental Committee for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Heritage of the United Nations, held between 28 September -- 2 October 2009 in Abu Dhabi, Nowrūz was officially registered on the UNESCO List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity
--

The Haft Sīn items are: * sabzeh - wheat, barley or lentil sprouts growing in a dish - symbolizing rebirth * samanu - a sweet pudding made from wheat germ - symbolizing affluence * senjed - the dried fruit of the oleaster tree - symbolizing love * sīr - garlic - symbolizing medicine * sīb - apples - symbolizing beauty and health * somaq - sumac berries - symbolizing (the color of) sunrise * serkeh - vinegar - symbolizing age and patience.

Other items on the table may include: * Sonbol - Hyacinth (plant) * Sekkeh - Coins - representative of wealth * traditional Iranian pastries such as baghlava, toot, naan-nokhodchi * Aajeel - dried nuts, berries and raisins * lit candles (enlightenment and happiness) * a mirror (symbolizing cleanness and honesty) * decorated eggs, sometimes one for each member of the family (fertility) * a bowl of water with goldfish (life within life, and the sign of Pisces which the sun is leaving). As an essential object of the Nowruz table, this goldfish is also "very ancient and meaningful" and with Zoroastrian connection.[62] * rosewater, believed to have magical cleansing powers * the national colours, for a patriotic touch * a holy book (e.g., the Avesta, Qur'an, Bible, Torah, or Kitáb-i-Aqdas) and/or a poetry book (almost always either the Shahnameh or the Divan of Hafez).

Countdown! Iran's finger on nuclear trigger

WND.com. / By Reza Kahlili

WASHINGTON – Iranian nuclear experts have completed the component for a nuclear bomb trigger, overcoming a major obstacle in obtaining the bomb, according to sources within Iran.

As reported last May, the Iranian nuclear and military industries, under the order of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were to weaponize at least two warheads with a nuclear payload no later than next month.

Sources within the Revolutionary Guards reveal that the work on the trigger is taking place covertly under the control of the Guards in the cities of Darkhovin and Isfahan.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the main brain behind the Iranian nuclear bomb program, is guiding the project. Fakhrizadeh reportedly reports directly to Khamenei and is under tight security because of the assassination of other Iranian nuclear scientists.

The Islamic regime has rejected several requests by the International Atomic Energy Agency to interview him. The U.N. nuclear watchdog believes Fakhrizadeh was responsible for the project “111,” which would convert highly enriched uranium into metal for a nuclear warhead and its reentry design.

The IAEA last November indicated that Iran had experimented with firing multiple detonators with a high level of simultaneity. The report also indicated that Iran as early as 2003 began a large-scale experiment to initiate a high-explosive charge in the form of a hemispherical shell. This indicates work on a nuclear bomb.

According to Sepahonline, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, Iranian nuclear bomb progress is overseen by the supreme leader’s military adviser, Rahim Safavi, a former chief commander of the Guards, and a cleric, Mohsen Ghomi, who has communicated the will of the supreme leader for a speedy completion of the project. These activities are taking place at several secret locations unknown to the IAEA. One location reportedly is in the city of Mobarake, south west of Isfahan.

Peter Vincent Pry, executive director of the newly established Task Force on National and Homeland Security, a congressional advisory board, concludes from IAEA intelligence that Iran’s nuclear weapons program is very advanced.

”Iran has already developed hemispherical explosive lenses and highly precise detonators,” Pry states, “a clear indicator Iran is working on, or has already built, an implosion-type nuclear weapon. The United States used an implosion atomic bomb during World War II to destroy Nagasaki.”  More >>

Iran expected to deliver 'major' nuclear announcement

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US officials: Israel uses terror group to kill Iran nuke scientists

Richard Engel and Robert Windrem

NBC News

Deadly attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists are being carried out by an Iranian dissident group that is financed, trained and armed by Israel’s secret service, U.S. officials tell NBC News, confirming charges leveled by Iran’s leaders.

ROCK CENTER EXCLUSIVE

The group, the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, has long been designated as a terrorist group by the United States, accused of killing American servicemen and contractors in the 1970s and supporting the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran before breaking with the Iranian mullahs in 1980.

The attacks, which have killed five Iranian nuclear scientists since 2007 and may have destroyed a missile research and development site, have been carried out in dramatic fashion, with motorcycle-borne assailants often attaching small magnetic bombs to the exterior of the victims’ cars.

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Obama administration is aware of the assassination campaign but has no direct involvement.

The Iranians have no doubt who is responsible – Israel and the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, known by various acronyms, including MEK, MKO and PMI. 

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

More >>

Israel: Iran's nuclear arms program is complete, its missiles can reach US

DEBKAfile Special Report

Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi

Iran has completed the development of a nuclear weapon and is only waiting for a sign from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to start assembling its first nuclear bomb, said Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi on Thursday, February 2. By the end of 2012 or early 2013 Iran may have a single nuclear bomb, he said, but by 2015 the figure would jump to four or five. Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon: None of Iran's nuclear installations are immune from attack. Read more >>

Americans talk about an Israeli strike on Iran, but prepare own offensive

DEBKAfile/

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has been outspoken about a possible Israeli offensive being launched against Iran from April, but has not leveled about massive US war preparations. The question is no longer if armed hostilities are afoot, but when. Tehran too is gearing up with a new three-week "exercise" and calling allies to the flag, including Syria. There, the appalling bloodbath has reached a scale – 350 Saturday, Feb. 4 alone – which potentially rivals nuclear Iran as the trigger for a Middle East confrontation. Read more >>

The Point of No Return: 3 Reasons Israel will attack Iran

For the Obama administration, the prospect of a nuclearized Iran is dismal to contemplate— it would create major new national-security challenges and crush the president’s dream of ending nuclear proliferation. But the view from Jerusalem is still more dire: a nuclearized Iran represents, among other things, a threat to Israel’s very existence. In the gap between Washington’s and Jerusalem’s views of Iran lies the question: who, if anyone, will stop Iran before it goes nuclear, and how? As Washington and Jerusalem study each other intensely, here’s an inside look at the strategic calculations on both sides—and at how, if things remain on the current course, an Israeli air strike will unfold. 
The Atlantic/ By Jeffrey Goldberg

 

Alex Williamson

It is possible that at some point in the next 12 months, the imposition of devastating economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran will persuade its leaders to cease their pursuit of nuclear weapons. It is also possible that Iran’s reform-minded Green Movement will somehow replace the mullah-led regime, or at least discover the means to temper the regime’s ideological extremism. It is possible, as well, that “foiling operations” conducted by the intelligence agencies of Israel, the United States, Great Britain, and other Western powers—programs designed to subvert the Iranian nuclear effort through sabotage and, on occasion, the carefully engineered disappearances of nuclear scientists—will have hindered Iran’s progress in some significant way. It is also possible that President Obama, who has said on more than a few occasions that he finds the prospect of a nuclear Iran “unacceptable,” will order a military strike against the country’s main weapons and uranium-enrichment facilities.

But none of these things—least of all the notion that Barack Obama, for whom initiating new wars in the Middle East is not a foreign-policy goal, will soon order the American military into action against Iran—seems, at this moment, terribly likely. What is more likely, then, is that one day next spring, the Israeli national-security adviser, Uzi Arad, and the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform them that their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has just ordered roughly one hundred F-15Es, F-16Is, F-16Cs, and other aircraft of the Israeli air force to fly east toward Iran—possibly by crossing Saudi Arabia, possibly by threading the border between Syria and Turkey, and possibly by traveling directly through Iraq’s airspace, though it is crowded with American aircraft. (It’s so crowded, in fact, that the United States Central Command, whose area of responsibility is the greater Middle East, has already asked the Pentagon what to do should Israeli aircraft invade its airspace. According to multiple sources, the answer came back: do not shoot them down.)

In these conversations, which will be fraught, the Israelis will tell their American counterparts that they are taking this drastic step because a nuclear Iran poses the gravest threat since Hitler to the physical survival of the Jewish people. The Israelis will also state that they believe they have a reasonable chance of delaying the Iranian nuclear program for at least three to five years. They will tell their American colleagues that Israel was left with no choice. They will not be asking for permission, because it will be too late to ask for permission.

More >>

Israeli official implies strike on Iran nukes program is near

By Joshua Mitnick

TEL AVIV  — Tensions between Israel and Iran are on the rise after a group of top Israeli leaders engaged in a round of saber-rattling on Thursday and Iran’s Supreme Leader answered on Friday with a pledge to "remove" Israel.

Speaking at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center's annual conference, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak compared the current standoff with Iran to the "fateful" period before the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, when Israel launched a preemptive strike against Egypt.

At the same conference, Israel’s military intelligence chief, Aviv Kochavi said that Iran had enough nuclear material to make four bombs, and could construct a missile within three years. Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon warned that "an unconventional country can’t be allowed to have a nonconventional weapon" and that "a nuclear Iran would be the nightmare of the West."

Even though Israeli leaders have been heartened by international sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program, which Iran insists is for peaceful purposes only,  the chorus of warnings from Israel reflect growing anxiety among some leaders that Iran may still obtain a nuclear bomb.

"The temperature is rising in Israel," says Meir Javedanfar, an Iran analyst in Tel Aviv. He says that if the defense minister sees the current period as similar to the run-up to the [1967] Six-Day War, "that gives credibility to those who think Israel is going to launch an attack."

Israeli strike would be 'a gift' for Iran, says dissident Amid the rising anxiety, an Iranian dissident who lives in exile in the US, came to the Jewish state this week to warn leaders here that a preemptive strike on Iran would be counterproductive.

Amir Abbas Fakhravar, whose visit got significant attention in the Israeli media, says that Israelis are right to take the threat of a nuclear Iran seriously. But he says he is telling Israeli leaders – among them officials at the Foreign ministry – that harsh economic sanctions like the oil embargo adopted by Europe have the potential to weaken the regime. An Israeli attack, on the other hand, would strengthen it.

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"This will be the worst scenario. It will be a gift from God for [embattled Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad," he says. "After a limited military attack, they can act as a victim, go around the world, and get support and legitimacy from other little countries."

Mr. Fakhravar predicts that absent a strike economic sanctions will eventually bring down the Islamic regime and lead to a new government that would not seek nuclear weapons.

Fakhravar says that he spent five years in Iranian jails and was tortured for participating in student riots against the regime in 1999. He then fled in 2006 with the help of former US defense official Richard Perle. Reports in the US have questioned his credentials as an opposition leader. He was brought to Israel by an Israeli consulting group linked to Israel's opposition Kadima party, in cooperation with the Israeli embassy in Washington.

Netanyahu compares Iran to Nazi Germany But while Fakhravar's credibility may be questioned, his view on Iran is shared by numerous Israeli security chiefs who have publicly cast doubt about the effectiveness of an Israeli strike, and warned about widespread damage from a regional war. Among them is former Mossad chief Meir Dagan.

Israeli leaders, however, remain skeptical that sanctions would stop Iran’s government gaining such a capability.

Comparing Iran’s regime to Nazi Germany, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said it is Israel’s right to act to prevent Iran from attaining a nuclear weapon.

Iranian Organization Bids Communist Protests in US

TrevorLoudon.com: New Zeal Blog/

On Saturday, February 4, thousands of protesters will gather in cities all over the US and in several other countries, to march against alleged US plans to make war on Iran.

In the US, the ultra militant, pro-Cuba and North Korea Workers’ World Party is taking a leading role in coordinating the actions.

From Workers’ World:

U.S.-based anti-imperialist and anti-war organizations have called for protest demonstrations to stop U.S. aggression aimed at Iran on Feb. 4, calling it a “global day of action.” As of Jan. 29, the movement had grown to include protests in 48 U.S. cities, plus cities in five other countries.
The demonstrators demand, in a leaflet posted on a few of the endorsing organizations’ websites: “No war, no sanctions, no intervention, no assassinations against Iran.”
While the organizations involved have varied assessments of the Iranian government, they all see that any intervention by U.S. imperialism in the oil-rich Asian country not only threatens the Iranian people, but could also be a stepping stone to a much wider war in Asia.

Workers’ World spoke on January 28 with Sara Flounders, a WWP leader co-director of the International Action Center, one of the original organizations to call for the Feb. 4 action.

“The quick response to the emergency action shows deep apprehension about the threat of war,” said Flounders. “Different combinations of the endorsing groups have already called for actions in 48 cities around the United States. Each of these groups has its own political program and analysis of the world situation, but they have agreed to give priority to fighting against this new and possibly devastating war that threatens humanity.
“Sometimes people in the U.S. fail to see that sanctions are in themselves an act of war. Those the U.S. and the United Nations carried out against Iraq from 1990 to 2003 cost the lives of more than 1 million Iraqis, including at least half a million children. The Iran sanction measures also impose sanctions on any country that doesn’t go along with the U.S. blockade. This drives up oil prices and threatens to unhinge the economies of the poorest countries.
“International support, considering the short time span, has been good,” continued the IAC leader. “Demonstrations are planned in Ireland, Norway, India, Bangladesh and Canada.”

Significantly, the protests are at the behest of an Iranian based organization, The House of Latin America. According to Workers’ World:

Activists in Iran are also concerned about these dangers. The Iranian organization called The House of Latin America has been contacting its friends in the Western Hemisphere to work toward actions on Feb. 4.

And what exactly is the House of Latin America in Iran?

According to Workers’ World Party supporter Phil Wilayto, writing in MRzine in October 2010:

HOLA was started about five years previously to promote solidarity with the peoples of Latin America. Its activities have included organizing solidarity trips to Nicaragua and Venezuela, hosting a talk by Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, translating a book by Hugo Chavez  of Venezuela, and facilitating a visit to Iran by the son and daughter of Che Guevara  to participate in a commemoration of the 40th a anniversary of Che’s death.

Wilayto goes on to explain HOLA’s role inviting Workers’ World Party fronts International Action Center and the ANSWER Coalition to Iran to discuss building a movement to defend the Islamic Republic.

In mid-October 2010, a nongovernmental organization in Iran called the House of Latin America, or HOLA, invited several anti-imperialist organizations from North America to Tehran with the goal of building the movement against war and sanctions against Iran. Among those who attended were representatives of the International Action Center, ANSWER Coalition,Toronto Coalition Against the War , and the American Iranian Friendship Committee.
Now, as a result of the aforementioned meeting with North America-based activists, HOLA has set up a new campaign called Solidarity with Iran (SI) and initiated an English-language international appeal, detailing U.S. threats to Iran and defending Iran’s right to develop nuclear power for peaceful energy purposes.

This photo of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a House of Latin America in Iran book launching with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, would indicate that HOLA is almost certainly a state sponsored organization.

The book launch of Enghelab-e Venezuela, the Persian translation of Hugo Chávez Frías: un hombre, un pueblo (Marta Harnecker's interview with Chávez) by the House of Latin America in Iran

The fact that an Iranian organization, probably state directed, is bidding US communists to try and influence US government policy, should be more than enough grounds to spark an FBI investigation.