Is Big-Money Cuban Signing Jose Abreu Capable of Instant MLB Stardom?

Bleacher Report

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

The Chicago White Sox made Jose Abreu the richest Cuban player in Major League Baseball history this offseason, inking the slugging first baseman to a six-year, $68 million contract through 2019.

Yet, as is the case with any big-name international signee, the 27-year-old will now be expected to produce out of the gate this season, presumably hitting in the middle of order for the White Sox. 

Cuban players have made an immediate impact in the major leagues in recent years, with Yoenis Cespedes’ eye-opening rookie campaign in 2012 or Yasiel Puig’s historically good 2013 season serving as prime examples. Though they both struggled at times in their stateside debuts, each player’s respective ability to make adjustments allowed him to overcome said struggles and turn in an impressive rookie campaign. 

Although Abreu is a much different type of player, the big-money Cuban import has the makings of a future star in the major leagues. 

  

Background

Abreu put up monster offensive numbers annually during roughly a decade playing in Cuba's Serie Nacional. 

In 2009-10, Abreu finished third in the league’s MVP voting—behind well-known mashers Alfredo Despaigne and Yulieski Gourriel—after batting .388/.542/.786 with 30 home runs and a 55/74 K/BB ratio in 94 games. In addition to drawing 32 intentional walks, he also led the league in on-base percentage and slugging while finishing second in batting average and home runs.

During the following season, Abreu put himself on the map with one of top offensive performances in Serie history. Appearing in 77 games, he batted .448/.592/.952 with 16 doubles, 37 home runs and a 37/66 K/BB ratio, and was subsequently named league MVP. During the regular season, Abreu tied Yoenis Cespedes with 33 home runs despite missing 23 games with bursitis in his shoulder.

Abreu once again posted huge numbers during the 2011-12 season, batting .394/.543/.835 with 18 doubles, 37 home runs, 103 RBI and a 43/80 K/BB ratio in 92 games. Although he paced the circuit in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS, he finished behind Despaigne in the end-of-season MVP voting.

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Last year, Abreu furthered his success by batting .344/.479/.604 with 17 doubles, 19 home runs and 43/58 K/BB ration in 83 games. However, his season was cut short due to his participation in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, in which he batted .360/.385/.760 with three home runs in 25 at-bats.

Scouting Report

Listed at 6’3”, 255 pounds, Abreu is arguably the most prolific Cuban sluggers in the country’s rich baseball history. A right-handed hitter who showcases robust power to all fields, the 27-year-old employs a unique double toe-tap load to initiate an easy, but powerful, swing.

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While some scouts are divided about how his strength-driven bat speed will translate at the major league level, he does an excellent job of getting the barrel on the ball and uses his strength to drive it with authority from line-to-line.

In previous international competitions, such as the World Port Tournament in Rotterdam and the World Baseball Classic last March, Abreu demonstrated the ability to square velocity, though he seemed to prefer pitches that allowed him to extend his hands. Like most Cuban hitters, Abreu can punish mediocre breaking balls within the strike zone but also chases better offerings off the plate.

In spite of his perceived shortcomings at the dish, White Sox manager Robin Ventura believes that Abreu’s relentless work ethic in the cage will aid his success next season (via MLB.com):

It's professional. That's another one of those things we liked about him, numbers-wise and talent...He has more of a professional approach for being a big guy, hitting the ball the other way, more aware of his pitch. That's stuff you like to see, the way they work, they go about it. He knows how to practice.
...
You see that with guys even from other teams...You would try to peak over at Edgar Martinez in the cage to see what he was doing. When you play the Yankees, you get in the cage when Don Mattingly is in there to see what he's doing and why. Hopefully, he has that. His practice habits and the things that he does, he has the potential to do that.

Though Abreu will have plenty to prove next season, it's hard to not get excited about his future when mentioned him in the same sentence as as Martinez and Mattingly.

2014: What to expect

Compared to other recent Cuban players, there will be greater expectations tied to Abreu’s bat due to his projection as a middle-of-the-order first baseman. Plus, while Cespedes and Puig also provide value in the outfield and on the base paths, Abreu’s impact in the major leagues will depend solely on his ability to hit for power and drive in runs. Basically, he has a smaller margin for error as a bat-only player.

However, the White Sox are confident that the right-handed hitting slugger will make an immediate impact next season. And if the statistical projection models are correct, then Abreu should emerge as one of the more productive first baseman in the American League:

Jose Abreu's 2014 Statistical Projections (Steamer, ZIPS)

	PA	2B	HR	RBI	BB%	K%	BA	BABIP	wOBA
Steamer	398	17	25	63	11.0%	18.9%	.272	.279	.384
ZIPS	538	23	26	65	10.6%	17.1%	.273	.288	.371

FanGraphs.com

As you can see, both the Steamer and ZIPS projection models (via FanGraphs) believe that Abreu will be good for a .270-plus batting average (not driven by his batting average on balls in play), 25-plus home runs and solid strikeout and walk rates, especially for a first-year player.

So, how does Abreu’s potential production compare to some of the AL’s other top first baseman? Here’s a look at the ZIPS projections:

2014 ZIPS Projections: AL First Basemen

	PA	2B	HR	RBI	BB%	K%	BA	BABIP	wOBA
Jose Abreu	538	23	26	65	10.6%	17.1%	.273	.288	.371
Chris Davis	612	27	41	107	9.0%	30.9%	.267	.326	.370
Edwin Encarnacion	564	27	30	89	11.5%	13.5%	.276	.271	.377
Mike Napoli	476	24	22	68	12.2%	30.5%	.241	.314	.350
Prince Fielder	669	30	30	101	12.6%	16.3%	.276	.293	.364
Eric Hosmer	653	31	20	77	8.2%	15.1%	.296	.325	.352

FanGraphs.com

While there are plenty of question marks regarding Abreu’s performance next season, the ZIPS projections suggest that the 27-year-old’s production will rank in the top five among AL first baseman.

Granted this is purely speculative, but it's difficult to envision him not making an impact next season in the major leagues.