Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta desempleo. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta desempleo. Mostrar todas las entradas
sábado, abril 26, 2014
viernes, enero 17, 2014
U.S. Seven Devastating Economic Facts
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U.S. economic conditions in 2014 continue to languish, as millions of Americans remain jobless. Seven economic facts underscore America’s increasingly dire economic outlook.
1. A Record 91.8 Million Americans Are No Longer in the Workforce
The latest Labor Department figures reveal that a record 91.8 million Americans are no longer in the U.S. labor force. To be included in the Labor Department's calculations for this statistic, a person must be 16 years or older, a civilian, not in an institution (such as prison), and someone who has not looked for a job in the last four weeks.
Minorities have been hit especially hard. As Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research noted to PBS, last month’s jobs report also saw “the lowest rate of labor force participation among African-American men since we have kept that count. So that was really striking.”
According to the U.S. Census, 317 million people live in the United States.
2. Since Jan. 2009, the Number of Jobless Working-Age Americans Has Risen 9.6 Million People
As Michael Snyder notes:
The number of working age Americans that do not have a job has increased by nearly 10 million since Barack Obama first entered the White House. In January 2009, the number of "officially unemployed" workers plus the number of Americans "not in the labor force" was sitting at a grand total of 92.6 million. Today, that number has risen to 102.2 million. That means that the number of working age Americans that are not working has grown by close to 10 million since Barack Obama first took office.
3. 47.4 Million Americans Now Rely on Food Stamps
The Department of Agriculture, which oversees the food stamp program, says that 47,415,895 Americans – roughly one out of every six Americans – now receives food stamps. Indeed, for the last fifteen consecutive months, the number of individuals has consistently stayed above 47 million, a first in U.S. history.
Food stamp enrollments, which are considered an indicator of economic distress, have skyrocketed in recent years as the Obama administration has loosened eligibility requirements and aggressively promoted enrollments. In January 2009, 31.9 million people received food stamps.
4. A Record 10.98 Million Americans Now Receive Disability Checks
Social Security data reveal that a record 10,988,269 Americans now receive a monthly check for an average $1,146.43. Several recent studies and investigations have revealed that the nation’s disability program is rife with fraud and abuse.
When health care for disabled workers is included, U.S. taxpayers now spend $260 billion a year funding the disability program – a figure that exceeds the amount spent on food stamps and welfare combined.
5. Nearly One in Three Americans Fell into Poverty Between 2009-2011
A new Census Bureau report released last week found that 31.6% of Americans fell beneath the federal poverty line for at least two months between 2009 to 2011, a 4.5% increase over the 2005 to 2007 period.
6. 42% of Americans Believe Themselves Worse Off Financially than a Year Ago
Gallup on Wednesday released its latest “Mood of the Nation” poll that found that 42% of Americans say they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, a number that has grown over the last two years.
7. U.S. Debt Now Stands at over $17.3 Trillion
America’s federal debt explosion continues unabated. In Jan. 2009, the national debt was $10.626 trillion. Today, America’s national debt stands at over $17,300,000,000,000.
sábado, mayo 04, 2013
NYT: Real Unemployment at 21.9 Million
On Friday, President Barack Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Alan B. Krueger took a victory lap of sorts after the Labor Department’s jobs report showed the U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in April.
“Today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover,” said Krueger.
But behind Friday’s Labor Department figures lies a stark economic reality: America remains in a downward jobs spiral.
Consider the following: according to the Labor Department, the U.S. added 165,000 jobs in April, but to return to pre-recession employment levels, the U.S. would need to add 208,000 jobs a month over seven years.
The government officially recognizes 11.7 million individuals as being unemployed. But as the New York Times notes, including “those who are underemployed—that is, adding in those workers who are part-time but want to be employed full time, and workers who want to work but are not looking—brings the total up to 21.9 million."
Since President Barack Obama took office, 9.5 million Americans have fallen out of the U.S. workforce. Today, 89,936,000 people living in the U.S. no longer work.
That means America is trapped in the slowest job market recovery since World War II.
As New York Times economic reporter Binyamin Appelbaum concludes, “the United States economy is not getting any closer to recreating the jobs lost during the recession.”
Financial strain pushes many veterans to the breaking point
inplainsight
Courtesy Adam Legg
Navy veteran Adam Legg said a long jobless spell after tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan left him feeling hopeless and led him to "go weeks without smiling, walking around like a shadow, like you're not there."
By Bill Briggs, NBC News contributor
Hundreds of thousands of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have been flying home to a fresh fox hole: A debt crater that’s sucking in entire military families and could be helping to fuel the veteran suicide crisis.
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Courtesy Adam Legg
"I was a watch commander where I had 25 to 30
people working beneath me, in charge of millions of dollars worth of ammunitions, weapons, vehicles, computers," said Adam Legg, a Navy veteran. "And then when I come home, not only can I not find a job, I can't take care of my family." |
A bad job market, a long backlog for federal disability benefits, and occasionally unwise spending habits have been conspiring to strain the financial and mental health of many veterans, experts say.
"We keep hearing of suicides rising. How much pressure do you think one person can take?" asks Christopher Fitzpatrick, deputy director of VeteransPlus, a nonprofit that has fielded more than 170,000 calls from ex-service members with imminent financial concerns.
"No one wants to talk about the fact that there are other reasons, besides PTSD, for suicide at 2 in the morning. You know how we know? We have an online form people use to contact us, and we get those emails — they’re sent at 1, 2, 3, 4 in the morning. People are reaching out, literally: 'Can you please help me? I’m losing everything.'"
It's a problem that could get even worse in coming years, with more than one million service members expected to make the transition to civilian life.
Navy veteran Adam Legg, 30, ran into financial trouble following two tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan. A jobless and hopeless period that began after his service separation in 2009 led him to "go weeks without smiling, walking around like a shadow, like you're not there," he said.
He couldn't secure a job at his local McDonald's or at dozens of other companies to which he applied in Central Florida. With a wife, Melissa, and a young daughter to feed, he maxed out a credit card that he was able to pay off with money he'd saved during his eight years in the Navy.
'Very, very dark place'
But bigger bills — like the mortgage — went untouched. After losing his Florida home to foreclosure and two cars to repossession, Legg said he began to consider suicide.
But bigger bills — like the mortgage — went untouched. After losing his Florida home to foreclosure and two cars to repossession, Legg said he began to consider suicide.
"When you feel like you can’t take care of your family, feed them, shelter them, it’s a very, very dark place. A feeling of uselessness that maybe they would be better off if you’re not around," Legg said.
"We've been below the poverty line, absolutely. I was a watch commander where I had 25 to 30 people working beneath me, in charge of millions of dollars worth of ammunitions, weapons, vehicles, computers. And then when I come home, not only can I not find a job, I can’t take care of my family. If it weren’t for my wife, if she was not supportive the way she was, I really don’t think I’d be here right now."
According to VeteransPlus, fewer than 20 percent of their clients have stockpiled a six-month savings cushion while serving in Iraq or Afghanistan despite untaxed, hazardous-duty wages that fattened paychecks.
Some returning veterans planned to live off their credit cards until landing civilian work, even though the veteran unemployment rate is two points higher than the civilian rate, Fitzpatrick said. Some expected to support themselves via VA benefits, apparently unaware that average wait time for that money approaches — and sometimes eclipses — one year.
The Pentagon urges military personnel and their families to bank some money while in the service. This year, during “Military Saves Week," service members were reminded to “set a goal, make a place and save automatically.” Service members also can take advantage of the Thrift Savings Plan, a federally sponsored retirement savings and investment program resembling a civilian 401(k).
But even some of those who build up savings while serving abroad find their stash exhausted after buying gifts for family and plucking shiny toys, like motorcycles, for themselves when they come home from war, according to VeteransPlus.
"We don’t like using the word ‘entitlement,’ but often that’s what it really is for these young men and women who feel like they’ve served their country and are coming home with some money and ‘now it’s my turn,’" Fitzpatrick said.
Move west, young man
For Legg, the way out was to escape Florida, not his life. He and his wife packed up their daughter, dog, cat and remaining belongings and recently drove to the Pacific Northwest. Two things lured the Legg family to Baker City, Ore.: a lower cost of living and its proximity to a military-friendly college, Eastern Oregon University.
For Legg, the way out was to escape Florida, not his life. He and his wife packed up their daughter, dog, cat and remaining belongings and recently drove to the Pacific Northwest. Two things lured the Legg family to Baker City, Ore.: a lower cost of living and its proximity to a military-friendly college, Eastern Oregon University.
He's now a full-time student, living off of his GI Bill and his VA benefits for a diagnosed anxiety disorder (not PTSD), damaged knees, a bad back, and an injured left arm — combat baggage that requires daily Vicodin consumption. They live in a small, rented house.
Melissa was scheduled to deliver their second child last Wednesday. Soon, Legg plans to file for bankruptcy.
 |
| Courtesy Adam Legg/ Navy veteran Adam Legg and
his family moved to Oregon from Florida.
|
"I have no choice. We're at that rock bottom line," he said. "I'm not the only one. Of the (veteran) friends I've kept up with, most are struggling."
Many veterans panic when they face getting kicked out of their homes, or must decide between buying food or diapers, said Kristy Kauffman, executive director of Code of Support, an Alexandria, Va.-based nonprofit that proclaims to "bridge the gap between civilian and military America."
"It happens far too often. We get at least one call, email, or referral every week," she said.
Kaufmann agrees with Fitzpatrick that poverty is one factor behind the veteran suicide rate, adding: "It does increase the risk."
"The vast majority of those who have worn the uniform," she said, "are imbued with a strong sense of mission and pride in 'getting it done.' For those who have trouble reintegrating into the civilian world — whether due to physical or mental health issues, or lack of employment opportunities — it's that loss of mission that seems most debilitating."
lunes, abril 29, 2013
El Estudiante, los Profesores y la Teoria del Endeudamiento vs Austeridad
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| Thomas Herndon |
El País / Sandro Pozzi.- Cuando la deuda de un país supera el 90% del PIB, el crecimiento de la economía es inviable. El aserto, nacido de dos cerebros de Harvard y sobre el que se asientan las políticas de austeridad que están a punto de dinamitar los pilares del Estado de bienestar en medio mundo, ha resultado tan falaz como las armas de destrucción masiva que sirvieron para justificar la invasión de Irak.
“Es exagerado hacer la comparación, pero acepto la analogía porque es cierto que se están adoptando políticas a partir de premisas que son falsas”. Quien habla es Thomas Herndon, el estudiante de 28 años que, en su camino para sacarse un doctorado en Economía en la Universidad de Massachusetts, ha desenmascarado la mentira macroeconómica más significativa de los últimos años, y sobre la que EE UU y Europa se han apoyado en su campaña por la austeridad fiscal y el recorte drástico del gasto.
Herndon cuenta que se frotaba los ojos al cruzar los datos de su trabajo ordinario de carrera con los del hipercitado informe de los profesores de la prestigiosa Universidad de Harvard Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff. Los errores eran básicos. De hecho, al principio pensó que el equivocado era él. No podía ser que dos reputadas eminencias hubieran podido pasar por alto cosas así.
El estudio que está en el centro de la controversia global lo publicaron Reinhart y Rogoff en la American Economic Review en 2010. Ahí defienden cómo el crecimiento cae de golpe cuando la deuda pública de un país supera el 90% del PIB. Reinhart, nacida en La Habana (Cuba) hace 57 años, fue economista jefa durante tres años del difunto Bear Stearns, la primera víctima de la crisis financiera. Eso fue en los años 1980, antes de ocupar varios cargos en el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), donde llegó a ser la número dos en el departamento de investigación antes de llegar a Harvard. Rogoff, de 60 años, fue su jefe en el FMI, donde tuvo un sonado encontronazo con Joseph Stiglitz a cuenta de la crítica que el premio Nobel hizo de esa institución en su libro El malestar en la globalización (2002).
Su novia, una socióloga acostumbrada a cruzar números, fue la primera en apoyarle: “No creo que estés equivocado”, le dijo
No fueron pocos los políticos que echaron mano del trabajo para defender que se pase la podadora al gasto para volver a la senda de un crecimiento sano y robusto. Entre ellos, Paul Ryan, el candidato republicano a la vicepresidencia de EE UU. También el comisario europeo de Asuntos Económicos, Olli Rehn, y el expresidente del Banco Central Europeo Jean-Claude Trichet. Ninguno cuestionó la metodología del trabajo, ni sus datos, como hizo el joven Herndon.
“Estaba convencido desde el principio de que algo iba realmente mal con el estudio. Y cuando me llegaron los datos [los autores le mandaron las tablas de Excel que utilizaron, a petición del estudiante], se confirmaron mis sospechas”, relata Herndon. El joven estudiante, criado en Austin (Texas), de padre texano y madre de Hong Kong, al que le gusta tocar el bajo, le pasó las tablas a su novia, Kyla Walters. Ella tiene un doctorado en Sociología y gracias a su trabajo de investigación está muy acostumbrada a cruzar números. “No creo que te estés equivocando”, le respondió.
El siguiente paso fue acudir a Michael Ash y Robert Pollin, dos de sus profesores, que ahora le cubren las espaldas, pero que en un primer momento se mostraron más bien incrédulos. Lo que no logró anticipar Herndon, ni tampoco Ash y Pollin, es lo que venía a continuación. Hay economistas que les han llamado para emprender con ellos una batalla contra la idea de que el alto endeudamiento frena el crecimiento.
Pero hasta ahora ni un solo dirigente político se ha puesto en contacto con el trío para conocer su teoría. Aun así, el estudiante señala que el trabajo “está empezando a marcar la diferencia en los círculos de decisión política”. Cita, por ejemplo, el blog de John Taylor. El reputado economista por Stanford asegura que el error puesto en evidencia por el joven influyó en la decisión de los ministros de Finanzas del G-20 para omitir en su comunicado de la semana pasada una referencia al nivel de endeudamiento.
En el origen del fiasco está un encargo convencional de los profesores. Pidieron a los alumnos que emularan resultados estadísticos de estudios ya publicados. Él eligió el estudio de Reinhart y Rogoff porque, “aunque era poco atractivo”, le pareció oportuno vistas las dificultades que tienen Europa y EE UU para salir del agujero de la recesión y del impacto de las políticas que se están adoptando en los países.
Los profesores de Harvard ahora cuestionados le facilitaron en enero todo el material que necesitaba para descifrar el estudio y le dieron libertad para publicar lo que quisiera. “Vi el error muy rápido”, dice Herndon. A comienzos de abril, Reinhart y Rogoff admitieron que habían cometido algunos fallos a la hora de codificar las cifras. Pero siguen defendiendo su metodología e insisten en que existe una clara correlación entre alto endeudamiento y lento crecimiento. “Este lamentable desliz no afecta al mensaje central”, dicen en una nota.
Herndon, que habla siempre en plural, admite que criticar el trabajo de los dos profesores de Harvard “es lo más fácil” y no cree que hubiera una intencionalidad cuando omitieron ciertos datos, como el hecho de que Australia, Canadá y Nueva Zelanda crecieran en periodos de alto endeudamiento, o se equivocaran en alguna suma al introducir mal las órdenes en la celdilla de Excel. Pero está convencido también de que la teoría no puede replicarse, porque está mal planteada. Y apoya que se adopten políticas de estímulo para salir de la recesión. “La austeridad es contraproducente, crea sufrimiento”.
El joven no se declara ni conservador ni liberal; dice que no le gustan las etiquetas. Pero sí parece tener muy claro que “es falso decir que el alto endeudamiento es malo”. Por eso cree que lo que deben hacer los dirigentes es ver las circunstancias específicas en las que la deuda puede ser efectiva en un escenario de recesión. Su prioridad ahora, comenta, es terminar el segundo semestre y recopilar ideas para su tesis final.
De momento se está dedicando con sus profesores a publicar los primeros hallazgos para después seguir desarrollando el trabajo a lo largo del verano, integrando mejoras estadísticas. Y entre clase y clase busca tiempo para conceder entrevistas e incluso acercarse a Nueva York para verse con Stephen Colbert, el conductor del programa satírico The Colbert report. Colbert le dedicó esta semana dos espacios a su trabajo, lo que muestra hasta qué punto está caliente el debate. En el primero se dedicó a mofarse de los profesores de Harvard y de los que se apoyaron en su estudio para aventurar “una nueva crisis económica alimentada por la deuda”. “¿Sabes que has enfadado a mucha gente en el campo de la austeridad, importantes y muy poderosos?”, le preguntó después. “La Universidad me cuida mucho”, le respondió. Herndon admite no estar preparado para la avalancha mediática. “Ni siquiera tenía una buena foto”, comenta. Y las siglas con las que los tres autores firman el trabajo, HAP, tomada de la inicial de sus apellidos, ha inspirado ya una expresión entre los estudiantes: “To get happed”, que alguien te señale los errores.
El joven cree que su experiencia hará que los estudiantes presten mucha más atención a la hora de comprobar una y otra vez los resultados de sus trabajos. “Serán mucho más cuidadosos”. Como le dijo Colbert, la pareja de Harvard no se dio cuenta de los errores porque no hay nadie por encima de ellos que les revise sus estudios. Ahora, como señala Kyla, su chico tendrá menos tiempo para practicar música, pero sus perspectivas de trabajo han mejorado.
jueves, abril 18, 2013
Thatcher's economic legacy
but she was not a economist!!!: "She arrived at Oxford in 1943 and graduated in 1947 with Second-Class Honours in the four-year Chemistry Bachelor of Science degree; in her final year she specialised in X-ray crystallography under the supervision of Dorothy Hodgkin.[12][13]
Roberts became President of the Oxford University Conservative Association in 1946.[14][15] She was influenced at university by political works such as Friedrich von Hayek's The Road to Serfdom (1944),[16] which condemned economic intervention by government as a precursor to an authoritarian state.[17]
After graduating, Roberts moved to Colchester in Essex to work as a research chemist for BX Plastics.[18] In 1948, she applied for a job at ICI, but was rejected after the personnel department assessed her as "headstrong, obstinate and dangerously self-opinionated".[Margaret Thatcher - Wikipedia]
------------------------- EconomistMagazine
sábado, marzo 09, 2013
Record 89,304,000 Americans ‘Not in Labor Force’ | Fausta's Blog
Fausta's Blog
Record 89,304,000 Americans ‘Not in Labor Force’ — 296,000 Fewer Employed Since January
Mr. Bingley has more >>
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) labels people who are unemployed and no longer looking for work as “not in the labor force,” including people who have retired on schedule, taken early retirement, or simply given up looking for work.The number of Americans not in the labor force increased by 296,000 between January and February, which means that the labor force participation rate, which measures workers and those looking for jobs, also fell, to a 32-year low of 63.5 percent.
The increase marks the second month in a row, after rising in January from 88.8 million in December. Those not in the labor force had declined in December from 88.9 million in November.
Mr. Bingley has more >>
miércoles, febrero 27, 2013
More Than 400 'Life of Pi' Visual Effects Artists Protested The Oscars
"Life of Pi" may have been a big Oscar winner Sunday night, but those responsible for bringing the CGI-filled film to life aren't celebrating.
During one of the oddest moments of the awards, VFX supervisor Bill Westenhofer was played off the Oscar stage to the "Jaws" theme while accepting his award for "Life of Pi."
The gesture came off overtly rude to critics and VFX artists considering Westenhofer was only 45 seconds into his speech.
The average speech of the past decade has clocked in at closer to two minutes.
The "Jaws" music began playing during his mention of Rhythm & Hues VFX studio.
Rhythm & Hues is the studio responsible for bringing the CGI-filled "Life of Pi" to life. It took 600 of its artists to bring Bengal tiger, Richard Parker, to life on screen.
It's also known for its work on "Snow White And The Huntsman" and bringing a pig to life in "Babe."
Earlier this month, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and laid off more than 200 employees without pay.
It's not the first VHX company to have trouble in the past few months.
Digital Domain Media Group (DDMG), the company responsible for helping to bring "Titanic" to life on the big screen, filed for bankruptcy back in September. They were soon bought for $37 million by Beijin's Galloping Horse and Mumbai-based Reliance Capital.
Later in the press room, Westenhofer said he was trying to address a bigger issue on stage regarding the importance of VHX in films.
"It’s ironic that when visual effects are dominating the box office, visual effects are struggling," said Westenhofer. "We’re artists, and if we don’t fix the business model we may lose something.”
Earlier in the day, while the primary focus during the Oscars was on the red carpet, not far off, more than 400 VFX professionals protested the event.
Called the "Piece of Pi" protest, plan, protestors held signs with slogans including "End The Subsidies War" and the one below:
martes, febrero 26, 2013
The Natural Rate of Unemployment in 2013
Last March, we estimated what the natural unemployment rate for the United States was given the number of employed and unemployed Americans as well as the job turnover rates for which Americans were being hired into new jobs or let go from their old ones. Here's what we found:
Running the numbers for December 2012, we find that the unemployment rate at the end of 2012 was 7.85% - just a hair below the 7.87% natural rate of unemployment that we estimated with the January 2012 data we used in our previous calculation. Or rather, the pace of job creation throughout 2012 was not sufficient to significantly lower the official rate of unemployment, just as we expected.
But then, we also find that natural rate of unemployment through December 2012 is 7.63%. When compared to December 2012's official unemployment rate of 7.85%, that suggests that the pace of job creation as given by the JOLTS new hire and new separation data will not be sufficient to significantly lower the official rate of unemployment, which we've already seen with the January 2013 employment situation report, where the official rate of unemployment came in at 7.9%, up slightly from the previous month.
That outcome agrees with our tool's finding for the data of December 2012: there's not a lot of slack in the U.S. job market, so there will be little prospect of significantly altering the official unemployment rate data in the short term.
With that being the case, we can expect little improvement in the official unemployment rate this year, which unless something happens to upset the economy, should slowly converge with the natural unemployment rate. Believe it or not, that's consistent with what President Obama's economic forecasters have predicted for 2013, who foresaw back in July 2012 that the U.S. would have a 7.6% unemployment rate by the end of 2013.
In the tool, the labor market is considered to be overheating when the official rate of unemployment is below the natural rate of unemployment. That's definitely not the case for January 2012, with a natural rate of unemployment of 7.87% and an official rate of unemployment of 8.26%.Let's do the math again, this time with the data available through the end of 2012:
The natural unemployment rate of 7.87% also suggests that the current pace of job creation as given by the JOLTS data will not be sufficient to significantly lower the official rate of unemployment, which we've already seen with the February 2012 employment situation report, where the official rate of unemployment came in at 8.27%, up slightly from the previous month.
Running the numbers for December 2012, we find that the unemployment rate at the end of 2012 was 7.85% - just a hair below the 7.87% natural rate of unemployment that we estimated with the January 2012 data we used in our previous calculation. Or rather, the pace of job creation throughout 2012 was not sufficient to significantly lower the official rate of unemployment, just as we expected.
But then, we also find that natural rate of unemployment through December 2012 is 7.63%. When compared to December 2012's official unemployment rate of 7.85%, that suggests that the pace of job creation as given by the JOLTS new hire and new separation data will not be sufficient to significantly lower the official rate of unemployment, which we've already seen with the January 2013 employment situation report, where the official rate of unemployment came in at 7.9%, up slightly from the previous month.
That outcome agrees with our tool's finding for the data of December 2012: there's not a lot of slack in the U.S. job market, so there will be little prospect of significantly altering the official unemployment rate data in the short term.
With that being the case, we can expect little improvement in the official unemployment rate this year, which unless something happens to upset the economy, should slowly converge with the natural unemployment rate. Believe it or not, that's consistent with what President Obama's economic forecasters have predicted for 2013, who foresaw back in July 2012 that the U.S. would have a 7.6% unemployment rate by the end of 2013.
Want to Run Other Numbers for Yourself?
You can get the most recently reported data through the links below!- Employment Situation (EMPSIT)
- This report is produced monthly and contains the number of employed and the number of unemployed for the total U.S. civilian workforce. The appropriate data is found in Table A-1 in the data section of the report.
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS)
- This report is produced quarterly and provides the numbers of those newly hired or who have recently separated from their previous employment in the civilian workforce. This data is found in Table A of the main body of the report.
viernes, febrero 01, 2013
lunes, enero 28, 2013
Break the Silence on the Unemployment Problem
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| economist.com |
This slow recovery has left unemployment tragically high in most parts of the country. In the San Francisco Bay Area where I live we are relatively lucky. In San Francisco the unemployment rate is 6.7%. The rate is 7.8 % in the country as a whole, and 9.8 % in the state as a whole. In the nearby central valley—cities like Yuba City, Modesto, Merced, Fresno—it’s about 15%, and down south in El Centro California it’s 27%.
The numbers would all be worse if they included the unusually large number of people who have dropped out of the labor force and are no longer counted as unemployed. If they counted, the national unemployment rate would be 9.1 percent. Another way to think about this is to look at the fraction of working age adults who are employed. Though this number usually rises during recoveries, it is actually smaller now than when the recovery began.
But you know even that relatively low 6.7% in San Francisco is pretty terrible. I like to tell the story about what Senator Hubert Humphrey said when President Ford’s Council of Economic Advisers, where I worked with Alan Greenspan, reported to the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) that it was raising the definition of the normal unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.9%. Humphrey, who chaired the JEC, was outraged and told us in the JEC hearing that “if the country was suffering a plague and you economists were doctors your solution would be to raise the definition of normal body temperature above 98.6 degrees”
So I am worried when people stop talking about today’s very high unemployment rates as if they were normal. It is not a good sign that the inaugural address was silent on the subject, not even including the word unemployment.
miércoles, diciembre 12, 2012
Federal Reserve announces unprecedented steps to bolster the economy
As long as expected inflation remains tame, the Fed said it could keep its key short-term rate near zero even after unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. Unemployment is now 7.7 percent.
Analysts said the Fed’s new guidance will make it easier for companies, investors and consumers to make financial decisions because they will have a clearer grasp of when borrowing costs will begin to rise.
“This approach is superior” to setting a timetable for a possible rate increase, Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a news conference after the Fed held a two-day policy meeting and issued a statement. “It is more transparent and will allow the markets to respond quickly and promptly to changes” in the Fed’s economic outlook.
Though the Fed’s low interest-rate policies are intended to boost borrowing, spending and stock prices, they also hurt millions of retirees and others who depend on income from savings.
Bernanke made clear that even after unemployment falls below 6.5 percent, the Fed might decide that it needs to keep stimulating the economy. Other economic factors will also shape its policy decisions, he said.
“The Fed has become more explicit and more transparent,” said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics. “This should provide the markets with much more clarity around monetary policy action in the upcoming year.”
In its statement, the Fed said it will also keep spending $85 billion a month on bond purchases to drive down long-term borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth.
The Fed will spend $45 billion a month on long-term Treasury purchases to replace a previous bond-purchase program of an equal size. And it will keep buying $40 billion a month in mortgage bonds.
Those purchases, and the Fed’s commitment to low rates, are intended to spur borrowing and spending in an economy still growing only modestly 3½ years after the Great Recession ended.
Still, Bernanke warned that none of the Fed’s actions could outweigh the economic pain that would be caused by sharp tax increases and government spending cuts that are set to kick in next month. The standoff between President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers over how to resolve the “fiscal cliff” is already hurting the economy, in part by reducing consumer and business confidence, he said.
Fed policymakers are hopeful that the crisis can be resolved without significant long-term economic damage, Bernanke said. They foresee slightly faster growth next year and a gradual decline in unemployment.
Bernanke’s comments about the impact of the fiscal cliff seemed to raise some concern among investors. Stocks had risen after the Fed’s statement was released. But by the end of Bernanke’s news conference, market averages were mixed. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down about 3 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose fractionally.
sábado, octubre 06, 2012
US Election: Suspicion of poll, jobs numbers takes hold on right
As the presidential election reaches its apex in intensity, so have arguments from the right that polls and economic statistics -- the numbers used to explain the 2012 campaign -- are not to be trusted.
The theory that many polls are under-sampling Republicans (and thus overstating the support for Obama) has become widespread on the right, as many supporters of Mitt Romney asserted this week during rallies before the first presidential debate.
martes, junio 12, 2012
jueves, abril 05, 2012
Doubts about the official jobless rate
Something in Friday’s employment data won't add up.
For the past 50 years, it’s been widely assumed that the jobless rate can’t fall much unless the economy expands faster than its normal pace. Anything less only creates enough jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force -- not absorb the millions left unemployed by the latest downturn.
But over the past six months, the U.S. unemployment rate has surprised economists by rapidly falling to 8.3 percent from 9.1 percent even as the economy has yet to get back up to pre-recession speed. According to the textbooks, that’s not supposed to happen.
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Doubts about the official jobless rate have prompted some economists to turn to an alternate measure: the employment-to-population ratio, which paints a more sobering picture of the employment outlook.
More >>
viernes, enero 13, 2012
E-Mail: Detroit's Decline [Photo essay]
TotallyCoolPix
Detroit Motor City is in the spotlights these days. It’s the time of year when the big automakers of the world bring their shiny new cars to the Detroit Auto Show. After some troublesome times the Big Three US car makers have hit on good times again, but the city of Detroit, once world famous for it’s cars and it’s music, is now more famous for the decay of it’s once grand buildings and the high levels of unemployment.
1 A man sits as he waits for Sunday mass to start at the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 18, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
2 Chris Mitchell walks up the stairs at the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 17, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
3 A woman walks past the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 17, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
4 A woman eats her lunch at the soup kitchen in the basement of St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 21, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
5 People are reflected in a window in of the soup kitchen in the basement at the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 21, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
6 Children sit with Santa Claus in a series of photos placed on the table in the soup kitchen in the basement of the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 17, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
7 Calvin Lockridge Jr. looks on in the soup kitchen in the basement of the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 17, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
8 A decal reading God Bless America is seen on the wall of the soup kitchen in the basement of the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 17, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
9 Arym Ward looks down as she takes part in a re-enactment of the birth of Jesus following the Sunday mass at the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 18, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
10 A man collects money from donations during Sunday mass at the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit December 18, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
11 A sign is posted at the health clinic at the St. Leo Catholic Church in Detroit, December 17, 2011. St. Leo Catholic Church, located in one of the most abandoned pockets of the nation's most depressed city, is operating on life support. Built more than 120 years ago as Detroit was developing into a manufacturing powerhouse, St. Leo is one of the many area churches to have succumbed to a same priest and parishioner shortage that has plagued the Catholic Church in America. Picture taken December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
12 The inside of the abandoned Martyrs of Uganda Catholic Church is seen in Detroit, December 18, 2011. When a Catholic church closes, the land and buildings go back to the archdiocese. The neighboring parishes can come and take their pick of relics or ecclesiastical equipment. If a new tenant doesn't materialize, criminals sometimes do. Thieves often strip the building of copper or pluck out stained glass. The abandoned Martyrs of Uganda church in Detroit, closed by the Archdiocese in 2006, is an example of this decay. Picture taken December 18, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
13 The inside of the abandoned Martyrs of Uganda Catholic Church is seen in Detroit December 18, 2011. When a Catholic church closes, the land and buildings go back to the archdiocese. The neighboring parishes can come and take their pick of relics or ecclesiastical equipment. If a new tenant doesn't materialize, criminals sometimes do. Thieves often strip the building of copper or pluck out stained glass. The abandoned Martyrs of Uganda church in Detroit, closed by the Archdiocese in 2006, is an example of this decay. Picture taken December 18, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
14 A newly built housing project is seen near downtown Detroit, Michigan, January 4, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 4, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
15 The skyline of Detroit, Michigan is seen from Windsor, January 4, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 4, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
16 General Motors world headquarters (C) is seen along the Detroit river in downtown Detroit, Michigan, January 4, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 4, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
17 Nicole Conaway holds a protest sign outside the Lincoln Library Branch as she protests against its closing in Detroit, Michigan, January 3, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 3, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
18 A larger banner reading Outsource to Detroit is seen on the side of a building on Woodward Ave in downtown Detroit, Michigan, January 7, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 7, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
19 Two Detroit People Mover cars are seen on the elevated track in downtown Detroit, Michigan, January 6, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 6, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
20 Iron worker Douglass Washburn rides the People Mover on his lunch break from the North American International Auto Show at Cobo Center in downtown Detroit, Michigan, January 7, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 7, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
21 Detroit Police Chief Ralph Godbee announces a plan to dramatically reduce services that will be at the city's eight police stations during a press conference at the Northeastern District police station in Detroit, Michigan, January 6, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 6, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
22 A neighborhood crime watch sign is seen in Detroit, Michigan, January 6, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 6, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
23 An abandoned, vacant house is seen in Detroit, Michigan, January 3, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 3, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
24 A partially burned, abandoned house is seen in Detroit, Michigan, January 7, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 7, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
25 An older neighborhood is seen from a broken window of the abandoned Packard Plant in Detroit, Michigan, November 27, 2010. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken November 27, 2010. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
26 Auto Show worker Chuck Standhardt buffs the scratches off of a Cadillac XTS vehicle as he gets it ready for display at the North American International Auto Show at Cobo Center in Detroit, Michigan, January 7, 2012. Saddled with crippling debt, mounting labor costs, and onerous union contracts, the city that paved the auto industry's success is in need of a bailout of its own. Picture taken January 7, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
27 A child's toy is seen in a pile of concrete blocks inside the abandoned and decaying Packard Motor Car Manufacturing Plant in Detroit, Michigan April 2, 2011. The city is a part of America's Midwestern Rust Belt, the heartland of the country and home to big unionized manufacturers like the auto and steel industries. The plant, built in 1907 and designed by Albert Kahn, is located near downtown. Picture taken April 2, 2011. REUTERS/Eric Thayer
28 A chair is seen inside the abandoned and decaying manufacturing plant of Packard Motor Car in Detroit, Michigan April 2, 2011. The city is a part of America's Midwestern Rust Belt, the heartland of the country and home to big unionized manufacturers like the auto and steel industries. The plant, built in 1907 and designed by Albert Kahn, is located near downtown. Picture taken April 2, 2011. REUTERS/Eric Thayer
29 The abandoned and decaying manufacturing plant of Packard Motor Car is seen in Detroit, Michigan April 2, 2011. The city is a part of America's Midwestern Rust Belt, the heartland of the country and home to big unionized manufacturers like the auto and steel industries. The plant, built in 1907 and designed by Albert Kahn, is located near downtown. Picture taken April 2, 2011. REUTERS/Eric Thayer
30 Broken windows are seen inside the abandoned and decaying manufacturing plant of Packard Motor Car in Detroit, Michigan April 2, 2011. The city is a part of America's Midwestern Rust Belt, the heartland of the country and home to big unionized manufacturers like the auto and steel industries. The plant, built in 1907 and designed by Albert Kahn, is located near downtown. Picture taken April 2, 2011. REUTERS/Eric Thayer
31 The abandoned Michigan Central Station is seen in Detroit, Michigan April 5, 2011. The city is a part of America's Midwestern Rust Belt, the heartland of the country and home to big unionized manufacturers like the auto and steel industries. REUTERS/Eric Thayer
32 The Michigan Central Train depot sits vacant just west of downtown Detroit, Michigan, November 1, 2011. For years, Michigan Central Station, the towering train depot on the outskirts of downtown Detroit, stood as a haunting symbol of the city's decline and fall. The last train pulled out of the station in 1988, shortly before the Honda Accord became the best-selling car in America, a humbling milestone for the city and its top industry. Feature DETROIT-COMEBACK/ REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
33 The Michigan Central Train depot sits vacant just west of downtown Detroit, Michigan, October 28, 2011. For years, Michigan Central Station, the towering train depot on the outskirts of downtown Detroit, stood as a haunting symbol of the city's decline and fall. The last train pulled out of the station in 1988, shortly before the Honda Accord became the best-selling car in America, a humbling milestone for the city and its top industry. Picture taken October 28, 2011. Feature DETROIT-COMEBACK/ REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
34 The downtown Detroit skyline is seen in Detroit, Michigan November 11, 2009. For years, Michigan Central Station, the towering train depot on the outskirts of downtown Detroit, stood as a haunting symbol of the city's decline and fall. The last train pulled out of the station in 1988, shortly before the Honda Accord became the best-selling car in America, a humbling milestone for the city and its top industry. Picture taken November 11, 2009. Feature DETROIT-COMEBACK/ REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
35 A burnt out abandoned house is seen in Detroit, December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
36 A burnt out abandoned house is seen in Detroit, December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
37 The inside of an abandoned church, formally known as the Abundant Life Christian Center is seen in Detroit, December 18, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
38 A burnt out abandoned apartment building is seen in Detroit, December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
39 A burnt out abandoned house as a tax foreclosure notice posted on the front in Detroit, December 17, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
40 The inside of an abandoned church, formally known as the Abundant Life Christian Center is seen in Detroit, December 18, 2011. REUTERS/Mark Blinch
41 Protesters carry signs as workers demand jobs, in front of Cobo Center in Detroit, Michigan January 8, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
42 Chrysler Transport worker James Theisen carries a Detroit Needs Jobs sign as he joins a demonstration of about a dozen workers demanding jobs, in front of Cobo Center in Detroit, Michigan January 8, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
43 Retired United Auto Workers (UAW) Local 909 President Al Benchich carries a Put Detroit Back To Work sign as he joins a demonstration of about a dozen workers demanding jobs, in front of Cobo Center in Detroit, Michigan January 8, 2012. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
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¨Saturno jugando con sus hijos¨/ Pedro Pablo Oliva
Liborio
A la puerta de la gloria está San Pedro sentado y ve llegar a su lado a un hombre de cierta historia. No consigue hacer memoria y le pregunta con celo: ¿Quién eras allá en el suelo? Era Liborio mi nombre. Has sufrido mucho, hombre, entra, te has ganado el cielo.
Martha Colmenares
Un sitio donde los hechos y sus huellas nos conmueven o cautivan
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