La fraudulenta superioridad de los economistas

EL PAÍS

Moisés Naím

economiayepistemologia

“La arrogancia de los economistas ha sido rigurosamente confirmada por una investigación publicada en una de sus revistas especializadas. The Journal of Economic Perspectives revela que el 77% de los alumnos de doctorado en economía de las más prestigiosas universidades de Estados Unidos piensa que ‘la economía es la ciencia social más científica’. Sin embargo, tan sólo el 9% de los entrevistados opina que hay consenso con respecto a cómo responder preguntas básicas de la ciencia económica”.

Esto lo escribí en un artículo publicado hace diez años. Allí también ofrecí ejemplos de la sorprendente brecha que había entre lo poco que sabían y lo muy superiores que se sentían los economistas con respecto a otros científicos sociales como politólogos o sociólogos. Y en vista de su vasta ignorancia sobre temas básicos de la ciencia económica, sugerí que “a los economistas les convendría cambiar su arrogancia intelectual por una actitud más humilde y ver qué pueden aprender de otros”. Eso no pasó. Y no porque la ciencia económica haya llenado los vacíos de conocimiento que la plagaban una década atrás.

La misma revista en cuyos datos basé mi columna hace diez años acaba de publicar un artículo titulado (irónicamente) La superioridad de los economistas. En él se demuestra que una década después, y a pesar de la catastrófica crisis mundial que no fueron capaces de prevenir y sobre cuyas razones y soluciones aún debaten ferozmente, los economistas siguen creyendo que su ciencia es superior a todas las demás. Si bien hay incipientes intentos de recurrir a otras disciplinas para enriquecer sus teorías, la realidad es que los economistas estudian —y citan— predominantemente a sus colegas.

No fueron capaces de prevenir la crisis ni hay acuerdo sobre sus causas

Los autores del artículo, Marion Fourcade, Etienne Ollion y Yann Algan, examinaron las 25 publicaciones científicas más respetadas en Economía, Ciencias Políticas y Sociología. Encontraron que, entre 2000 y 2009, en todos los artículos publicados en The American Economic Review (AER), la más importante, el 40% de las referencias son a artículos publicados en las otras 24 principales revistas de economía. Tan solo el 0,3% de los artículos citados provienen de las revistas de sociología y el 0,8%, de las principales revistas de ciencias políticas. Es decir, que en todos los textos publicados en las 50 revistas más importantes de otras disciplinas durante toda una década, los economistas solo encontraron cerca de un 1% de artículos dignos de ser citados.

Y hay más. A la pregunta “¿Está usted de acuerdo o en desacuerdo con la afirmación de que ‘el conocimiento interdisciplinario es mejor que el conocimiento obtenido de una sola disciplina?”, la mayoría (57%) de los profesores de economía de EE UU que fueron sondeados estuvo en desacuerdo. En cambio el 75% de los profesores de sociología y el 72% de los politólogos encuestados dijeron que trabajar interdisciplinariamente era mejor.

Pero el desdén de los economistas por las ideas de otros campos no es universal. Hay disciplinas que les atraen mucho. Las finanzas y los negocios, por ejemplo. Mientras que las citas de los economistas a otras disciplinas vienen disminuyendo, las referencias a artículos publicados en revistas académicas especializadas en finanzas han experimentado un vertiginoso crecimiento. Analizando el lugar de empleo de los autores de artículos publicados en la principal revista estadounidense de economía (AER), Fourcade, Ollion y Algan encontraron que en los años cincuenta tan solo el 3,2% de los autores trabajaban como profesores en facultades de negocios. Pero en la década que se inició en el año 2000 el porcentaje aumentó al 18%.

Luigi Zingales, un respetado economista, advierte de que la cercanía de sus colegas al mundo de los negocios y las finanzas puede amenazar su independencia y condicionar su agenda, conclusiones y recomendaciones.

Zingales encontró, por ejemplo, que cuando los autores de artículos académicos no trabajan en facultades de negocios, sus textos son significativamente menos propensos a justificar los elevados sueldos que cobran los ejecutivos, y con frecuencia tienen una posición crítica al respecto. Dos tercios de los sociólogos estadounidenses sondeados opinan que las empresas privadas obtienen ganancias excesivas, mientras que solo un tercio de los economistas lo cree así. Casi ningún profesor de finanzas encuestado estuvo de acuerdo.

La crisis económica que aún vive el mundo y la incapacidad de los economistas para ofrecer soluciones sobre las cuales hay un significativo consenso revela que su instrumental teórico necesita urgentemente una inyección de nuevas ideas, métodos y supuestos sobre la conducta humana. Es difícil que esto ocurra mientras prevalezca la arrogante insularidad intelectual de la elite que actualmente rige de manera férrea y miope las investigaciones económicas.

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Soros Warns of ‘Riots,’ ‘Brutal’ Clampdowns & Possible Total Economic Collapse

Becket Adams

George Soros is no stranger to Blaze readers. The billionaire currency speculator and philanthropist has long been in the news, especially since the fateful day in 1992 when he helped crash England’s economy. In fact, since that day, he has been commonly referred to as “the man who broke the bank of England.”

Soros is shrewd, he has a keen eye for investments, and he knows how to play the markets. Therefore, when he makes a prediction, it might be safe to say it’s worth a listen. After all, his predictions (among other things) have made him the multi-billionaire he is today.

So you might want to pay attention to a recent story from The Daily Beast that claims George Soros is nervous about the future of the global economy and that he warns of dark things to come.

“At times like these, survival is the most important thing,” Soros said.

As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of “evil,” writes the Beasts’ John Arlidge. “Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America [Soros] predicts riots in the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties [emphases added]. The global economic system could even collapse altogether.”

And to add a little color, Aldridge notes Soros says it all while “peering through his owlish glasses and brushing wisps of gray hair off his forehead.”

“I am not here to cheer you up. The situation is about as serious and difficult as I’ve experienced in my career,” Soros told Newsweek. “We are facing an extremely difficult time, comparable in many ways to the 1930s, the Great Depression. We are facing now a general retrenchment in the developed world, which threatens to put us in a decade of more stagnation, or worse. The best-case scenario is a deflationary environment. The worst-case scenario is a collapse of the financial system.”

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Financial strain pushes many veterans to the breaking point

inplainsight

Courtesy Adam Legg

Navy veteran Adam Legg said a long jobless spell after tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan left him feeling hopeless and led him to "go weeks without smiling, walking around like a shadow, like you're not there."

By Bill Briggs, NBC News contributor

Hundreds of thousands of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have been flying home to a fresh fox hole: A debt crater that’s sucking in entire military families and could be helping to fuel the veteran suicide crisis.

Courtesy Adam Legg

"I was a watch commander where I had 25 to 30 
people working  beneath me, in charge of millions 
of dollars worth of ammunitions, weapons, vehicles, 
computers," said Adam Legg, a Navy veteran. "And 
then  when I come home, not only can I not find 
a job, I can't take care of my family."

A bad job market, a long backlog for federal disability benefits, and occasionally unwise spending habits have been conspiring to strain the financial and mental health of many veterans, experts say.

"We keep hearing of suicides rising. How much pressure do you think one person can take?" asks Christopher Fitzpatrick, deputy director of VeteransPlus, a nonprofit that has fielded more than 170,000 calls from ex-service members with imminent financial concerns. 

"No one wants to talk about the fact that there are other reasons, besides PTSD, for suicide at 2 in the morning. You know how we know? We have an online form people use to contact us, and we get those emails — they’re sent at 1, 2, 3, 4 in the morning. People are reaching out, literally: 'Can you please help me? I’m losing everything.'"

It's a problem that could get even worse in coming years, with more than one million service members expected to make the transition to civilian life.

Navy veteran Adam Legg, 30, ran into financial trouble following two tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan. A jobless and hopeless period that began after his service separation in 2009 led him to "go weeks without smiling, walking around like a shadow, like you're not there," he said.

He couldn't secure a job at his local McDonald's or at dozens of other companies to which he applied in Central Florida. With a wife, Melissa, and a young daughter to feed, he maxed out a credit card that he was able to pay off with money he'd saved during his eight years in the Navy. 

'Very, very dark place'
But bigger bills — like the mortgage — went untouched. After losing his Florida home to foreclosure and two cars to repossession, Legg said he began to consider suicide. 

"When you feel like you can’t take care of your family, feed them, shelter them, it’s a very, very dark place. A feeling of uselessness that maybe they would be better off if you’re not around," Legg said. 

"We've been below the poverty line, absolutely. I was a watch commander where I had 25 to 30 people working beneath me, in charge of millions of dollars worth of ammunitions, weapons, vehicles, computers. And then when I come home, not only can I not find a job, I can’t take care of my family. If it weren’t for my wife, if she was not supportive the way she was, I really don’t think I’d be here right now."

According to VeteransPlus, fewer than 20 percent of their clients have stockpiled a six-month savings cushion while serving in Iraq or Afghanistan despite untaxed, hazardous-duty wages that fattened paychecks.

Some returning veterans planned to live off their credit cards until landing civilian work, even though the veteran unemployment rate is two points higher than the civilian rate, Fitzpatrick said. Some expected to support themselves via VA benefits, apparently unaware that average wait time for that money approaches — and sometimes eclipses — one year.  

The Pentagon urges military personnel and their families to bank some money while in the service. This year, during “Military Saves Week," service members were reminded to “set a goal, make a place and save automatically.” Service members also can take advantage of the Thrift Savings Plan, a federally sponsored retirement savings and investment program resembling a civilian 401(k).

But even some of those who build up savings while serving abroad find their stash exhausted after buying gifts for family and plucking shiny toys, like motorcycles, for themselves when they come home from war, according to VeteransPlus.

"We don’t like using the word ‘entitlement,’ but often that’s what it really is for these young men and women who feel like they’ve served their country and are coming home with some money and ‘now it’s my turn,’" Fitzpatrick said. 

Move west, young man
For Legg, the way out was to escape Florida, not his life. He and his wife packed up their daughter, dog, cat and remaining belongings and recently drove to the Pacific Northwest. Two things lured the Legg family to Baker City, Ore.: a lower cost of living and its proximity to a military-friendly college, Eastern Oregon University. 

He's now a full-time student, living off of his GI Bill and his VA benefits for a diagnosed anxiety disorder (not PTSD), damaged knees, a bad back, and an injured left arm — combat baggage that requires daily Vicodin consumption. They live in a small, rented house.

Melissa was scheduled to deliver their second child last Wednesday. Soon, Legg plans to file for bankruptcy. 

Courtesy Adam Legg/ Navy veteran Adam Legg and 

his family moved to Oregon from Florida.

"I have no choice. We're at that rock bottom line," he said. "I'm not the only one. Of the (veteran) friends I've kept up with, most are struggling." 

Many veterans panic when they face getting kicked out of their homes, or must decide between buying food or diapers, said Kristy Kauffman, executive director of Code of Support, an Alexandria, Va.-based nonprofit that proclaims to "bridge the gap between civilian and military America."

"It happens far too often. We get at least one call, email, or referral every week," she said.

Kaufmann agrees with Fitzpatrick that poverty is one factor behind the veteran suicide rate, adding: "It does increase the risk." 

"The vast majority of those who have worn the uniform," she said, "are imbued with a strong sense of mission and pride in 'getting it done.' For those who have trouble reintegrating into the civilian world — whether due to physical or mental health issues, or lack of employment opportunities — it's that loss of mission that seems most debilitating."

Mark Carney’s parting shot at Alan Greenspan

The Globe and Mail

By Kevin Carmichael 

JASON FRANSON/THE CANADIAN PRESS

Mark Carney, who has been called the “outstanding” central banker of his generation, has used one of his final speeches as governor of the Bank of Canada to criticize the legacy of Alan Greenspan, who often was characterized as the greatest central banker of his generation.

Mr. Carney said Wednesday that central banks likely left interest rates too low for too long ahead of the financial crisis, mistakenly believing there was little they could do deflate asset-price bubbles.

“It appears likely that monetary policy would ideally have leaned against growing domestic imbalances in the pre-crisis period, thereby mitigating the eventual fall,” Mr. Carney said in a lecture at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

By “imbalances,” Mr. Carney is referring to the housing busts in the United States and parts of Europe that brought down the global economy.

Alan Greenspan

As those bubbles were inflating, central bankers generally were of the mind that it was less costly to let them burst and then clean up the damage by quickly lowering interest rates. Mr. Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, (in)famously argued that bubbles could too easily be confused with desirable wealth creation.

Mr. Greenspan’s approach to monetary policy has come under a considerable amount of scrutiny in recent years, for obvious reasons. Mr. Carney, who in July takes over as governor of the Bank of England, clearly has concluded that the crisis has left Mr. Greenspan’s theory wanting. Mr. Carney says central bankers should “lean” against asset-price bubbles under certain circumstances.

“While there clearly would have been economic costs to leaning, these must be viewed in relation to the enormous costs associated with the crisis,” he says. “Relative to the previous consensus, the lean versus clean debate now appears to be, at the very least, more finely balanced, if not tipping in favour of pre-emptive leaning,” he adds in the speech.

Mr. Carney’s conclusions about pre-crisis monetary policy matter because post-crisis monetary policy is rather similar.

The Bank of Canada’s benchmark lending rate has been 1 per cent or lower since January 2009, and the central bank’s current guidance suggests the overnight target will stay at 1 per cent until at least the end of next year. If that approach created “imbalances” a decade ago, it can do so again. That’s why so many critics think central banks such as the Bank of Canada are sowing the seeds for another crisis.

Mr. Carney concedes there is a risk of a repeat. That’s why the Bank of Canada has been so vocal in warning against the perils of household debt and why the central bank continues to tilt toward raising interest rates even as the economy’s momentum approached stall speed.

Yet Mr. Carney’s critique of the Greenspan doctrine isn’t absolute.

He agrees that raising interest rates to cool a specific market is an inelegant way to guide an economy. Which is why he emphasizes that monetary policy is the last line of defense. First, one hopes households, executives and investors will be guided by common sense. When that fails, they next play is regulatory policy; for example, tightening mortgage requirements, as Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has done on four separate occasions. If that fails, then the central bank must raise interest rates, even if that risks impeding economic growth more broadly, to avoid a calamity.

In effect, by stressing the possibility that bubbles could result in higher interest rates, the Bank of Canada has been leaning against the housing market. Mr. Carney said in his lecture compared it to the way central banks use communication to root inflation expectations – if economics actors believe the central bank will react to excessive debt accumulation with by raising borrowing costs, those actors will take on less debt.

“If leaning is understood, expectations will do some of the work for us,” Mr. Carney said.

Some will question to extent to which that is true. Few should question whether it is worth trying. The new generation of central bankers only is trying to correct the mistakes of the previous one.

El Estudiante, los Profesores y la Teoria del Endeudamiento vs Austeridad

USCOMEDYGOLD

Noticiero Digital

Thomas Herndon

El País / Sandro Pozzi.- Cuando la deuda de un país supera el 90% del PIB, el crecimiento de la economía es inviable. El aserto, nacido de dos cerebros de Harvard y sobre el que se asientan las políticas de austeridad que están a punto de dinamitar los pilares del Estado de bienestar en medio mundo, ha resultado tan falaz como las armas de destrucción masiva que sirvieron para justificar la invasión de Irak.

“Es exagerado hacer la comparación, pero acepto la analogía porque es cierto que se están adoptando políticas a partir de premisas que son falsas”. Quien habla es Thomas Herndon, el estudiante de 28 años que, en su camino para sacarse un doctorado en Economía en la Universidad de Massachusetts, ha desenmascarado la mentira macroeconómica más significativa de los últimos años, y sobre la que EE UU y Europa se han apoyado en su campaña por la austeridad fiscal y el recorte drástico del gasto. 

Herndon cuenta que se frotaba los ojos al cruzar los datos de su trabajo ordinario de carrera con los del hipercitado informe de los profesores de la prestigiosa Universidad de Harvard Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff. Los errores eran básicos. De hecho, al principio pensó que el equivocado era él. No podía ser que dos reputadas eminencias hubieran podido pasar por alto cosas así.

El estudio que está en el centro de la controversia global lo publicaron Reinhart y Rogoff en la American Economic Review en 2010. Ahí defienden cómo el crecimiento cae de golpe cuando la deuda pública de un país supera el 90% del PIB. Reinhart, nacida en La Habana (Cuba) hace 57 años, fue economista jefa durante tres años del difunto Bear Stearns, la primera víctima de la crisis financiera. Eso fue en los años 1980, antes de ocupar varios cargos en el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), donde llegó a ser la número dos en el departamento de investigación antes de llegar a Harvard. Rogoff, de 60 años, fue su jefe en el FMI, donde tuvo un sonado encontronazo con Joseph Stiglitz a cuenta de la crítica que el premio Nobel hizo de esa institución en su libro El malestar en la globalización (2002).

Su novia, una socióloga acostumbrada a cruzar números, fue la primera en apoyarle: “No creo que estés equivocado”, le dijo

No fueron pocos los políticos que echaron mano del trabajo para defender que se pase la podadora al gasto para volver a la senda de un crecimiento sano y robusto. Entre ellos, Paul Ryan, el candidato republicano a la vicepresidencia de EE UU. También el comisario europeo de Asuntos Económicos, Olli Rehn, y el expresidente del Banco Central Europeo Jean-Claude Trichet. Ninguno cuestionó la metodología del trabajo, ni sus datos, como hizo el joven Herndon.

“Estaba convencido desde el principio de que algo iba realmente mal con el estudio. Y cuando me llegaron los datos [los autores le mandaron las tablas de Excel que utilizaron, a petición del estudiante], se confirmaron mis sospechas”, relata Herndon. El joven estudiante, criado en Austin (Texas), de padre texano y madre de Hong Kong, al que le gusta tocar el bajo, le pasó las tablas a su novia, Kyla Walters. Ella tiene un doctorado en Sociología y gracias a su trabajo de investigación está muy acostumbrada a cruzar números. “No creo que te estés equivocando”, le respondió.

El siguiente paso fue acudir a Michael Ash y Robert Pollin, dos de sus profesores, que ahora le cubren las espaldas, pero que en un primer momento se mostraron más bien incrédulos. Lo que no logró anticipar Herndon, ni tampoco Ash y Pollin, es lo que venía a continuación. Hay economistas que les han llamado para emprender con ellos una batalla contra la idea de que el alto endeudamiento frena el crecimiento.

Pero hasta ahora ni un solo dirigente político se ha puesto en contacto con el trío para conocer su teoría. Aun así, el estudiante señala que el trabajo “está empezando a marcar la diferencia en los círculos de decisión política”. Cita, por ejemplo, el blog de John Taylor. El reputado economista por Stanford asegura que el error puesto en evidencia por el joven influyó en la decisión de los ministros de Finanzas del G-20 para omitir en su comunicado de la semana pasada una referencia al nivel de endeudamiento.

En el origen del fiasco está un encargo convencional de los profesores. Pidieron a los alumnos que emularan resultados estadísticos de estudios ya publicados. Él eligió el estudio de Reinhart y Rogoff porque, “aunque era poco atractivo”, le pareció oportuno vistas las dificultades que tienen Europa y EE UU para salir del agujero de la recesión y del impacto de las políticas que se están adoptando en los países.

Los profesores de Harvard ahora cuestionados le facilitaron en enero todo el material que necesitaba para descifrar el estudio y le dieron libertad para publicar lo que quisiera. “Vi el error muy rápido”, dice Herndon. A comienzos de abril, Reinhart y Rogoff admitieron que habían cometido algunos fallos a la hora de codificar las cifras. Pero siguen defendiendo su metodología e insisten en que existe una clara correlación entre alto endeudamiento y lento crecimiento. “Este lamentable desliz no afecta al mensaje central”, dicen en una nota.

Herndon, que habla siempre en plural, admite que criticar el trabajo de los dos profesores de Harvard “es lo más fácil” y no cree que hubiera una intencionalidad cuando omitieron ciertos datos, como el hecho de que Australia, Canadá y Nueva Zelanda crecieran en periodos de alto endeudamiento, o se equivocaran en alguna suma al introducir mal las órdenes en la celdilla de Excel. Pero está convencido también de que la teoría no puede replicarse, porque está mal planteada. Y apoya que se adopten políticas de estímulo para salir de la recesión. “La austeridad es contraproducente, crea sufrimiento”.

El joven no se declara ni conservador ni liberal; dice que no le gustan las etiquetas. Pero sí parece tener muy claro que “es falso decir que el alto endeudamiento es malo”. Por eso cree que lo que deben hacer los dirigentes es ver las circunstancias específicas en las que la deuda puede ser efectiva en un escenario de recesión. Su prioridad ahora, comenta, es terminar el segundo semestre y recopilar ideas para su tesis final.

De momento se está dedicando con sus profesores a publicar los primeros hallazgos para después seguir desarrollando el trabajo a lo largo del verano, integrando mejoras estadísticas. Y entre clase y clase busca tiempo para conceder entrevistas e incluso acercarse a Nueva York para verse con Stephen Colbert, el conductor del programa satírico The Colbert report. Colbert le dedicó esta semana dos espacios a su trabajo, lo que muestra hasta qué punto está caliente el debate. En el primero se dedicó a mofarse de los profesores de Harvard y de los que se apoyaron en su estudio para aventurar “una nueva crisis económica alimentada por la deuda”. “¿Sabes que has enfadado a mucha gente en el campo de la austeridad, importantes y muy poderosos?”, le preguntó después. “La Universidad me cuida mucho”, le respondió. Herndon admite no estar preparado para la avalancha mediática. “Ni siquiera tenía una buena foto”, comenta. Y las siglas con las que los tres autores firman el trabajo, HAP, tomada de la inicial de sus apellidos, ha inspirado ya una expresión entre los estudiantes: “To get happed”, que alguien te señale los errores.

El joven cree que su experiencia hará que los estudiantes presten mucha más atención a la hora de comprobar una y otra vez los resultados de sus trabajos. “Serán mucho más cuidadosos”. Como le dijo Colbert, la pareja de Harvard no se dio cuenta de los errores porque no hay nadie por encima de ellos que les revise sus estudios. Ahora, como señala Kyla, su chico tendrá menos tiempo para practicar música, pero sus perspectivas de trabajo han mejorado.

crazyworld383 

Control de precios: Una tendencia preocupante en América Latina

Libremente
Por Steve Hanke

Argentina (en inglés), Venezuela (en inglés) y ahora incluso Ecuador (en inglés) se han adherido a la desafortunada, aunque familiar, moda económica que actualmente atraviesa la región —los controles de precios. En un intento mal concebido de “suprimir” la inflación, sus respectivos gobiernos han intentado fijar los precios a niveles artificialmente bajos. Como cualquier economista que merezca el título sabe, esto eventualmente derivará en escasez.

Considere a Venezuela, donde el gobierno fija el precio de una serie de productos, incluyendo la gasolina, cuyo precio está fijado en solamente 5,8 centavos por galón. Como el gráfico adjunto muestra, 20,4% de los productos simplemente no se encuentran disponibles en las tiendas.

Mientras que los controles de precios probablemente mantienen los precios de los productos bajos en los mercados oficiales, finalmente conducen a repisas vacías, privando a muchos consumidores del acceso a productos esenciales (como el papel higiénico, en inglés). Esto, a su vez, conduce a una inflación “reprimida” —dados los controles de precio que existen, la tasa de inflación “real” es mantenida en un nivel bajo, o reprimida mediante la intervención estatal al estilo soviético. Como el gráfico adjunto muestra, la tasa implícita de inflación anual de Venezuela (utilizando variaciones en el mercado negro –enlace en inglés– del tipo de cambio entre el bolívar fuerte y el dólar) ubica a la tasa de inflación “reprimida” en un 153%.

De igual forma, Argentina se enfrenta a un dilema similar (ver gráfico adjunto).

Además de la escasez y la inflación reprimida, los controles de precio pueden conducir a consecuencias políticas no intencionadas en el futuro. Una vez que los controles de precio son implementados es muy difícil removerlos sin generar una agitación popular —solo considere las revueltas de 1989 en Venezuela (en inglés) cuando el presidente Carlos Andrés Pérez intentó remover los controles de precio.

Ojalá Ecuador —que, gracias a la dolarización (en inglés), está experimentando una inflación anual de solamente 3%— comprenda este sinsentido y abandone su experimento con los controles de precio.

Si los gobiernos de países como Venezuela están realmente interesados en mantener la inflación bajo control, deberían seguir el ejemplo de Ecuador —simplemente descartar su moneda doméstica y “dolarizar” (en inglés).

Ninety days of destruction from the Obama White House

Fox News

By Wayne Allyn Root 

The economic news in America has gone from bad to worse. 

First, we found out the jobs numbers are collapsing. Then retail sales figures were released- they show across the board contraction. 

Next, we found out U.S. business inventory figures were a disappointment. 

Finally, consumer confidence not only collapsed, but it was the largest miss from expectations in U.S. economic history. 2 words explain it all: "Ninety days."

Creating jobs in Obama's America is like trying to grow healthy plants in a nuclear blast zone.

Ninety days is all it took to put the U.S. economy into a coma, to destroy any chance of recovery. 90 days defined by the Obama "Axis of Evil” -- Taxation, regulation, unionization, litigation, IRS intimidation, demonization, and government strangulation. The last 90 days of this Axis of Evil have sealed our fate.

There are no new jobs. There will be no new jobs. Creating jobs in Obama's America is like trying to grow healthy plants in a nuclear blast zone. Obama has turned the U.S. economy into a “Hostile Work Environment.” I call it Obamageddon. 

Look at the toxic results of what has happened in the last deadly 90 days. Last month we added a miserable 88,000 jobs. 660,000 Americans dropped off the job rolls...in one month. 

Ninety million working-age, able-bodied Americans are no longer in the workforce. The workforce participation rate is the lowest since 1979. For men it’s the lowest since 1948 (when record keeping began). Disposable income in January was the lowest since 1959 (since record-keeping began). Under Obama we’re truly back to the future.

Twenty-percent of eligible adults are on food stamps. Fourteen million on disability. Record-setting numbers of Americans are breaking into their own retirement accounts just to survive. Student loan debt is a disaster -- with defaults up 36% from a year ago. 16.4 million Americans live in poverty…in the suburbs.

You’re on your own as the American economy descends into darkness, overwhelmed by debt and entitlements. 

Obama and the mainstream media have been blowing smoke for months, but the gig is up. No recovery is coming.

Let’s take a look at what Obama did to “save us” in the past 90 days:

- Federal income taxes went up dramatically on business owners (ie jobs creators). 

- Payroll taxes went up. 

- Exemptions and deductions were taken away. 

- ObamaCare taxes took effect. State and local taxes went up across the USA. 

- Gas prices went up drastically -- even as we learned Obama’s EPA wants new gas taxes.

- Grocery prices soared. 

- Health insurance soared. For many small businesses we learned it will double next year. 

- Electric rates went up -- as we learned that Obama’s EPA doubled biofuel taxes, while also trying to eradicate the coal industry and ban oil drilling. 

- IRS audits went up dramatically on business owners (which means higher accountant and legal bills).

Add it up: There’s no money left. Even “the rich” feel poor. The middle class is drowning. Small business is under attack. How can anyone spend if they have no money left after Obama's relentless taxes? Where is the money coming from to start a business?

But it gets even worse. In those same 90 days, the government created 6,118 new rules and regulations. That’s 68 per day. 

To produce that many job-killing regulations, Obama must have sweatshops populated with  slave labor, whipped and kept in chains, working in shifts 24 hours per day. Obama is literally killing the spirit of business owners and taxpayers.

Obama is like a drug addict with giant bills to pay and no income. He has to find a way to pay for his food stamps, disability and unemployment society. 

The bill to keep this Ponzi scheme going gets bigger by the hour. But with 90 million adults no longer working, and everyone who is willing to work being robbed to pay for a nation of deadbeats, who is left to jump-start the economy? Who is left to create jobs? The answer is…clearly…no one.

Even more shocking and depressing are Obama’s priorities. He claims we desperately need to raise all these taxes. 

Yet, our president had no problem giving away $250 million to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, $500 million to the Palestinians, $1.5 million in grant money to study why lesbians are fat (I’m not kidding), and billions of dollars in income tax credits to illegal aliens (who never paid income taxes in the first place). And you wonder why people are angry and disillusioned?

This has been 90 days for the history books. Ninety days that have made an economic collapse much more likely than a recovery. Ninety days that has put capitalism and American exceptionalism on life support.

Ninety days of the Obama "Axis of Evil” showcasing what one man, supported by a blind, adoring liberal-biased media, can do to snuff out ambition, drive, work ethic, creativity, inspiration and enthusiasm -- all in the name of equality, fairness and social justice.

Ninety days that will live in infamy. My book "The Ultimate Obama Survival Guide" is out today. Just in time -- because now it's a fight for survival.

Wayne Allyn Root is capitalist evangelist, entrepreneur, and Libertarian-conservative Republican. He is a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee. Wayne's latest book will be published on April 15: "The Ultimate Obama Survival Guide: Secrets to Protecting Your Family, Your Finances, and Your Freedom." For more, visit his website: www.ROOTforAmerica.com. Follow him on Twitter@WayneRoot.

Did Someone In Maduro’s Team Really Write The “Economic Atomic Bomb” Document

The Devil's Excrement

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Today everyone is talking about this document that Spain’s ABC newspaper wrote about in which reportedly a Communist Deputy that supports Chavismo wrote this highly critical article about the way the Venezuelan economy has been managed and proposes solutions to avoid what it calls “an economic atomic bomb”, which “has practically exploded”.

While I am sure the document is real and written by someone on the Chavista camp, I doubt very much that this person exerts any sort of influence over the Chavista leadership. Clearly, the author is well versed on economic matters, providing a good diagnoses of the situation, except that I don’t think the Chavista leadership would consider that this atomic bomb is already exploding. If that were the case, then all of the polls that have been telling us that Maduro is likely to win are all wrong and we would see some sort of desperation on Maduro’s part. (Although today’s attack  by Maduro on pro-Chavismo Ultima Noticias was certainly peculiar)

But beyond that, the document seems to be inconsistent with the trends one sees in Chavismo under Maduro. Yes, Giordani seems to be on the way out, but it does not look, like the document suggests like Ramirez will give up any part of what is under his control. Nor do I believe that Ramirez or Maduro will like an “opening” to the Venezuelan bourgeois or “selective opening to foreign investment”.

Thus, I think this document comes from a Chavista economist, an idealist, who mixes up religion and state, who really believes the whole model is wrong, but who I think has little weight under a possible Maduro Government.

Economic Policies of Margaret Thatcher's administration

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The European Crisis Continues: No Solution on the Horizon/ Václav Klaus

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Record 89,304,000 Americans ‘Not in Labor Force’ | Fausta's Blog

Fausta's Blog

Record 89,304,000 Americans ‘Not in Labor Force’ — 296,000 Fewer Employed Since January

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) labels people who are unemployed and no longer looking for work as “not in the labor force,” including people who have retired on schedule, taken early retirement, or simply given up looking for work.
The increase marks the second month in a row, after rising in January from 88.8 million in December. Those not in the labor force had declined in December from 88.9 million in November.

The number of Americans not in the labor force increased by 296,000 between January and February, which means that the labor force participation rate, which measures workers and those looking for jobs, also fell, to a 32-year low of 63.5 percent.
Mr. Bingley has more >>

The editors review 2012: Economics

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