The House, under the leadership of Speaker John Boehner, has
precipitated a postponement in the debt ceiling fight until May. This
represents a strategic choice by Boehner to make the Sequester fight,
not the debt ceiling fight, the next major engagement. Much of the
mainstream media now is accusing Congress of “kicking the can down the
road.” They are missing the strategic implications.
In retrospect, at the Battle at Fiscal Cliff, Boehner took President
Obama to the cleaners. He did it suavely, without histrionics. While
Obama churlishly, and in a politically amateurish manner,
publicly strutted
about having forced the Republicans to raise tax rates on “the
wealthiest Americans” Boehner, quietly, was pocketing his winnings.
Dazzled by Obama’s Ozymandias-scale sneer most liberals failed to
notice that Boehner quietly made 99% of the Bush tax cuts permanent. As
Boehner himself dryly observed, in an
interview with
The Wall Street Journal’s
editorial board member Steve Moore, “”Who would have ever guessed that
we could make 99% of the Bush tax cuts permanent? When we had a
Republican House and Senate and a Republican in the White House, we
couldn’t get that. And so, not bad.’”
“Not bad” is a resounding understatement. Dealt a weak hand, Boehner
managed to 99% outfox, on tax policy, a president who had the massive
apparatus of the executive branch, the Senate majority, and a
left-leaning national elite media whooping it up for a whopping tax
increase. Even more impressively, Boehner pulled it off with steady
nerves while under heavy pressure from the anti-spending hawks in his
own caucus.
Boehner, deftly, also dramatically raised the threshold, on which
Obama had campaigned, at which the modest 3.6% rate increase kicked in.
Yet his biggest win may have been in making the Alternative Minimum Tax
patch permanent. This changes the baseline with profoundly positive
implications for future tax reform and economic growth.
Boehner thereby won a triple jackpot, a bonanza for conservatives and
supply-siders … while Obama, giving up all that for a trivial symbolic
victory, lost his
Progressive shirt. The mainstream media, with a few exceptions such as Howard Kurtz at the
Daily Beast, was too deep in the tank to report that the Emperor has no clothes.
But Obama ended up, at least, shirtless.
Next
… off come the pants. Here come the real spending cuts. As reported by
Moore, Boehner privately told Obama “’Mr. President, we have a very
serious spending problem.’ He repeated this message so often, he says,
that toward the end of the negotiations, the president became irritated
and said: ‘I’m getting tired of hearing you say that.’”
Boehner, last week, again bested Obama by pushing the debt ceiling
fight back to May. This is a double whammy by Boehner. According to
specialists,
by structuring the law to allow new borrowing only to the extent of
obligations “outstanding on May 19, 2013, exceeds the face amount of
such obligations outstanding on the date of the enactment of this Act”
Boehner effectively instituted a spending freeze. This, in the face of
Obama’s relentless demand for even more spending, is a victory for
anti-profligacy hawks.
There’s a much bigger whammy embedded. Pushing the debt ceiling fight back to May, as the
New York Times put it, “re-sequenced” the fight. Re-sequencing was not an idle gesture. It was a major tactical win by the House. The
Times
reported that “’The president stared down the Republicans. They
blinked,’ said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York.”
Schumer speaks with macho naiveté.
The Democrats, apparently, still don’t know what Boehner has hit them
with. Thanks to the Sequester anti-profligacy conservatives now
negotiate from strength. What are the implications of putting the
Sequester fight before the debt ceiling fight? Steve Moore:
“The Republicans’ stronger card, Mr. Boehner believes, will be the
automatic spending sequester trigger that trims all discretionary
programs—defense and domestic. It now appears that the president made a
severe political miscalculation when he came up with the sequester idea
in 2011.
“As Mr. Boehner tells the story: Mr. Obama was sure Republicans would
call for ending the sequester—the other ‘cliff’—because it included
deep defense cuts. But Republicans never raised the issue. ‘It wasn’t
until literally last week [columnist’s note: just before the deadline]
that the White House brought up replacing the sequester,’ Mr. Boehner
says. ‘They said, ‘We can’t have the sequester.’ They were always
counting on us to bring this to the table.”
“Mr. Boehner says he has significant Republican support, including
GOP defense hawks, on his side for letting the sequester do its work. ‘I
got that in my back pocket,’ the speaker says. He is counting on the
president’s liberal base putting pressure on him when cherished domestic
programs face the sequester’s sharp knife. Republican willingness to
support the sequester, Mr. Boehner says, is ‘as much leverage as we’re
going to get.’”
Will the support of the defense hawks hold? It appears Boehner’s not
bluffing. Although Obama’s outgoing defense secretary, Leon Panetta,
infamously called the sequester “
catastrophic,” the secretary obviously is falling back on the old bureaucratic tactic called “squealing louder than it hurts.” The
Washington Post afterward called Panetta “the former (emphasis added) deficit hawk.”
As the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and nobody’s patsy,
crisply notes about the Sequester: “This cut is significant to be sure, but it does not reach that of previous postwar drawdowns.”
Catastrophic? Oh please. Panetta surely knows better. The Post
reprised a younger Panetta who, at a 1992 hearing (when the deficit was
less than half its current size), stated “I think the most dangerous
threat to our national security right now is debt, very heavy debt, that
we confront in this country.”
“As chairman of the House Budget Committee and later as budget
director in the Clinton administration, Panetta was an unforgiving
enforcer of the bottom line as the United States grappled with
record-size debts. As the largest government agency, the Pentagon found
itself a frequent target of his whip, especially as it struggled to
justify its missions in the aftermath of the Cold War.
“’I think the most dangerous threat to our national security right
now is debt, very heavy debt, that we confront in this country,’ Panetta
lectured then-Defense Secretary Richard B. Cheney and Gen. Colin L.
Powell, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during a hearing in
1992.”
It now should be clear to every Tea Party Patriot that Boehner is
acting with integrity, with acute political sophistication, as an
authentic conservative serious about reducing the debt by reducing
spending. His claim, to Moore, that “he has significant Republican
support, including GOP defense hawks … for letting the sequester do its
work,” promises to be a game changer.
Given the assessments by sober defense analysts — and according to
other, private, reports from Capitol Hill — there is no reason to think
that Boehner is bluffing about having the support he needs to take the
Sequester or barter it for even better cuts. And Boehner’s abhorrence of
debt appears completely authentic. Moore: “He sees debt as almost a
moral failing, noting that when he grew up in a little middle-class,
blue-collar neighborhood’ outside of Cincinnati, ‘nobody had debt. It
was unheard of. I just don’t do debt’.”
Boehner, having shrewdly identified the conservatives’ point of
maximum leverage, appears poised for an historic victory. Boehner may
prove himself to be the guy big enough and smart enough finally to
engineer something that eluded even the great Reagan: pushing federal
spending onto a downward trajectory.
If Boehner succeeds in closing the deal as he, with a critical assist
from Senate Minority Leader McConnell, seems about to do he will go
down in history as having brought about “the moment when the rise of the
oceans (of debt) began to slow” … and our republic “began to heal.” If
so John Boehner will deserve to be more than a Republican, conservative,
and tea party, hero. He will go up in popular esteem, and down in
history, as the master who staunched Washington’s hemorrhaging of
America’s wealth.