Jennifer Griffin Breaks Down #Libyan Attack

Can NATO Topple the Gaddafi Regime?

by Richard Fernandez
 
Yes, if it can impose a blockade lasting several months, is willing to risk to risk the destruction of Libyan oil, and can eventually deploy UAVs over Libya.  But the the worst thing they can do is let the fighting drag on, because it will almost inevitably lead to a humanitarian crisis in Libya.

The major problem facing NATO is that the rebels have been driven too far east to secure the facilities and the pipelines which take the product to the coast (see map below). To avoid permanently splitting the country along some kind of No-Man’s Land, it is not enough for the rebels to stop Khadaffi at the gates of Benghazi; they must drive west far enough to take the infrastructure from the Duck of Death. Only then can Libya be reconstituted as a single political entity.

Oil

The major NATO advantage in this campaign is that they control the sea. Khadaffi can be strangled by denying him arms, ammunition, and military supplies, all of which can come in quantity only by sea. But its effects will take months to be decisive.  Japan in World War 2 and the Iraqi insurgency showed how far limited supplies can be extended. There is probably still enough explosives in Khadaffi’s arsenals to manufacture millions of IEDs, all of which can be used to slow the rebel advance. They will last even longer if he goes on the defense.
The control of the Med would be largely wasted unless NATO can open the port of Benghazi to allied shipping. But it must be done by rebel forces alone or run afoul of the UN proscription on the use of occupation forces. That may be a term of art which will permit the use of naval troops and marines to in port areas. And the security must extend at least out to artillery range of the port.  Antiship missiles may also play a part. Recently the Jerusalem Post reported that a ship smuggling  C-802 antiship missiles into Gaza had been intercepted. The shipment weighed only 50 tons.  If such weapons reached Khadaffi they might complicate matters.
Khadaffi may try to mine the port or otherwise damage it because the Duck has a further weapon he can employ: humanitarian warfare. As can be seen from the map below, the water supply infrastructure is located to the west, again beyond Benghazi.  If Khadaffi can drive, by terror or ethnic cleansing, his opponents into rebel lines, the onus of feeding and watering perhaps millions will fall to NATO. They cannot do this without a port.

Water

Ultimately the rebels will need to be built up by Western training and advice to be capable of the offensive.  This would be a good opportunity for the West to essentially “take over” the rebel movement and influence it in pro-NATO directions. But again, it will take a length of time on the order of magnitude of the US rebuilding of Iraqi security forces to develop an acceptable force; that is unless the whole task is subcontracted to Egypt. But Egypt is currently in turmoil so that is questionable.

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Jets over Libya as H. Clinton Assumes Presidency

by Roger L Simon
The blog of the mystery writer, screenwriter and CEO of Pajamas Media.

Only Barack Obama could make Nicolas Sarkozy look good.
Why did it take our president so long to act in Libya with the international community fairly begging us to do something? Is it because there is a weird similarity between Muammar Gaddafi and the Reverend Jeremiah Wright — both men jawing on publicly with radical rhetoric while privately enriching themselves to the maximum degree possible in their individual instances? (Easy to imagine Wright as a Third World despot.)
Or is it just Obama’s natural predilection to do nothing that we first saw writ large when he failed to support the democracy demonstrators in the streets of Teheran in ’09? This man is clearly no neocon. He’s not even much of a lover of democracy and freedom, as far as anyone can tell.
What is clear is that it was only pressure from his secretary of State that propelled him to act before more bodies were splattered across Libya and Gaddafi stood triumphant over the country, mocking the world like the Batman Joker he is while soaking up more billions in petrodollars.
This division in our leadership could not have been more evident today watching Obama speak from Brazil followed by Clinton’s Paris conference. Obama was a blip, his vaunted verbal facility from the ’08 presidential election now seeming a distant memory from a particularly bland and pompous advertising campaign. Meanwhile, Clinton handled her press conference like a true statesman, fielding questions exactly with ready answers. She had thought things through and it showed. The woman had not been off playing golf or taking samba lessons in Corcovado. She obviously skipped the March Madness, as well, for more significant matters. 

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Analysis: U.S. military takes lead on Libya, but for how long?

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Stout (DDG 55) launches a Tomahawk missile in support of Operation Odyssey Dawn in the Mediterranean Sea on March 19, 2011 in this handout photo released to Reuters on Saturday.

Credit: Reuters/Nathan Pappas/U.S. Navy photo/Handout

By Phil Stewart

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A wary U.S. military, stretched thin by almost a decade of war, hardly wanted to be the face of another coalition strike on another Arab nation.
But just hours after U.S. warships and submarines launched a massive volley of Tomahawk cruise missiles at Libya, the big question at the Pentagon was not whether the United States was effectively in the lead but when it might hand over the reins to an ally.
Yes, French warplanes made the first, initial strikes in Libya. Indeed, British forces also were involved and a British submarine joined the United States in launching cruise missiles at the Libyan coast.
But the Pentagon acknowledged the strike on Libya -- the biggest military intervention in the Arab world since the 2003 invasion of Iraq -- was being spearheaded initially by the United States.
"We are on the leading edge of coalition operations, where the United States, under General (Carter) Ham in Africa Command, is in charge. He's in command of this at this point," said Vice Admiral Bill Gortney, director of the U.S. military's Joint Staff.
But Gortney cautioned that "in the coming days we intend to transition it to a coalition command." So far the coalition also includes Britain, Italy, France and Canada. Qatar said it will participate and other Arab allies are expected to join.
Mission creep in Libya is not an option for the United States. It faces a tough fight in Afghanistan, is still winding down in Iraq and is engaged in a massive relief mission in earthquake-hit Japan. Arab nations in North Africa and the Gulf face unprecedented unrest.
President Barack Obama, in his comments from Brazil, stressed the U.S. military's focus on the "front-end" of the mission to protect Libyan civilians and allow for the creation of a no-fly zone to stop Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi from killing civilians while trying to put down a rebellion.
But that no-fly zone, Obama said, "will be led by our international partners." No U.S. ground troops will go into Libya.
UNIQUE CAPABILITIES
U.S. officials say the initial leadership role made sense given the unique capabilities of the world's most advanced military to neutralize Gaddafi's air defenses. Those capabilities have kept the danger at arms length so far, launching targeted strikes from ships in the Mediterranean.
Some of the Tomahawk missiles used in Saturday's strike were far more advanced than necessary to evade Gaddafi's defenses, including the ability to "loiter" in the air before being instructed to their final target. That capability was not utilized in the strike on Libya.
"In this particular mission we used (the new missiles) just as one of the older Tomahawks," Gortney said.
Soon the U.S. military aims to send in advanced drone aircraft -- the Global Hawk -- to provide some of the battlefield imaging commanders are accustomed to.
Retired Army Lieutenant General James Dubik, a former top U.S. commander in Iraq, is skeptical of the mission but acknowledged the United States had some abilities crucial for the fight.
"We have some unique (surveillance and intelligence-gathering) capabilities and some unique anti-radar capabilities and of course we are the lead nation in the world with respect to Tomahawk missiles," he said.
Still, Dubik asked whether a no-fly zone would be sufficient to really protect civilians. What about Gaddafi's militias -- a question asked by many in Washington.
"I understand the moral desire, the moral legitimacy, but I'm unconvinced at this point that the strategic aim can be actually achieved with the means selected (a no-fly zone)," he said.
(Additional reporting by Missy Ryan; Editing by Bill Trott)

Coalition launching Libya strikes

A French Mirage 2000-5 aircraft, seen in this photo released by ECPAD (French Defence communication and audiovisual production agency), takes off from the Dijon military base on a mission to overfly Libya March 19, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/ECPAD/SIRPA AIR/Anthony Jeuland

A French Mirage 2000-5 aircraft, seen in this photo released by ECPAD (French Defence communication and audiovisual production agency), takes off from the Dijon military base on a mission to overfly Libya March 19, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/ECPAD/SIRPA AIR/Anthony Jeuland

(Reporting by Missy Ryan and Phil Stewart; editing by Christopher Wilson and Vicki Allen)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A coalition of the United States and four other nations launched military action against Libya on Saturday, officials said, as the West tries to force Muammar Gaddafi from power.
A U.S. official told reporters on condition of anonymity that a coalition including the United States, France, Britain, Canada and Italy had begun launching strikes on Libya designed to cripple Muammar Gaddafi's air defenses.
At least some Arab nations are expected to join the coalition later, the official said.
A second U.S. official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said missiles were launched from a warship against Libyan targets.
U.S. forces and planes will take part in the operation, called "Odyssey Dawn," that will mainly target air defenses around the Libyan cities of Tripoli and Misrata.
Some 25 coalition ships, including three U.S. submarines armed with Tomahawk missiles, are stationed in the Mediterranean, a military slide showed. Five U.S. surveillance planes are also in the area, it showed.