The escalating crisis in Ukraine being engineered by Vladimir Putin
is taking on the feel of the Guns of August: an inexorable march towards
a wider conflict, and perhaps a conflagration.
Having few good options to prevent the Russian autocrat from taking
whatever he wants from Ukraine and possibly other neighboring states in
what the Kremlin calls “the Near Abroad,” Europe and the Obama
administration have been ratcheting up economic sanctions on
individuals, banks, and companies known to be favored by the Putin
regime.
The
London Daily Telegraph gives
a flavor of what is in store in the wake of murderous attacks on
Ukrainian military personnel by Russian special forces and others and
retaliatory action by the government in Kiev:
The International Monetary Fund said the conflict risks deep damage
to Russia’s economy, starving it of foreign funds and knowhow.
“Geopolitical tensions have brought the Russian economy to a standstill.
"Russia’s actions in Crimea have increased the uncertainty of doing
business in Russia and are having a chilling effect on investment.
Capital outflows could reach $100bn (£58.3bn) in 2014.
"This comes at a crucial moment when the old growth model based on energy has been exhausted,” it said.
...
Russia’s central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina said capital flight was playing havoc with exchange rate policy.
“Rouble stability is impossible unless we slow capital outflows,” she said.
If Putin intensifies his interference in Ukrainian affairs, the
Russians seem likely to experience still worse economic dislocation. The
Telegraph reports that German chancellor Angela Merkel’s
Christian Democratic Union has issued a strategy paper that “called for a
complete change in policy, deeming it impossible to work with the
Kremlin so long as Vladimir Putin is in charge.” That would mean that
the Western government heretofore most determined to avoid harsh
sanctions on Russia (not least because they would harm Moscow’s many
trading partners in Germany) will no longer run interference for the
Kremlin and will seek the downfall of its longtime master.
So far, Vladimir Putin is responding to such economic measures and
strategic developments by doubling down. He declared on July 1, “I want
everyone to understand: Our country will continue to defend the rights
of Russians abroad and to use our entire arsenal.”
Such statements would be ominous under any circumstance. That arsenal
is formidable and has, to varying degrees, already been brought to
bear.
Putin has put into place the ground forces needed to seize the
industrial heartland of Ukraine. Other nations on Russia’s littorals –
including NATO member nations in the Baltics – could also suddenly face
Kremlin-manufactured separatist movements that ask Mother Russia for
solidarity and protection.
Putin has already engaged in economic warfare against Ukraine, most
recently cutting off its access to natural gas imports – ostensibly over
payment arrearages, but clearly with an eye toward euchring
accommodation of Russian demands.
President Putin has made no secret of his determination to brandish
Russia’s nuclear weapons stockpile. He is comprehensively modernizing
it, in contrast to the steady atrophying of America’s strategic forces,
rationalized by President Obama’s reckless, unilateral pursuit of a
“world without nuclear weapons” – starting with ours. The
Russian despot has resumed provocative, Cold War-style penetrations by
long-range nuclear-capable bombers of U.S. and allied airspace. He has
also threatened to engage in nuclear attacks on adversaries, near and
far.
It appears, however, that Putin may have just added to his “arsenal” a
new weapon, one that could give him a new and devastating “nuclear
option.” In fact, the mere threat of its use against the Europeans and
the Americans may be sufficient to impel their acquiescence to his
demands on Ukraine and, for that matter, just about anything else he
wants.
According to a
CNBC report
on July 1, “The industrial control systems of hundreds of European and
U.S. energy companies have been infected by a sophisticated cyber weapon
operated by a state-backed group with apparent ties to Russia.” If
true, Putin could threaten to unleash at any time via a Stuxnet-like
computer worm an attack on the electric grids of the United States and
Europe. Such a cyber attack could potentially disrupt the distribution
of power to their respective critical infrastructures for protracted
periods.
Should that occur, societal breakdowns, economic collapse, and losses
that run to the hundreds of millions of lives are distinct
possibilities, if not certainties. The Free World as we have known it
could cease to exist, without a shot being fired.
Such a scenario was among those validated in London this week at a
meeting of top government officials, legislators, public utilities
regulators, electric industry leaders, scientists and other experts from
the United States, Britain, Israel and a number of other countries. The
good news is that, in light of such very bad news about the dangers we
face – with or without a Russian Stuxnet 2.0 – this Electric
Infrastructure Security Summit seemed to precipitate an unprecedented
willingness on the part of the various stakeholders represented to
collaborate for the purpose of protecting the grid against all hazards.
The prospect of Vladimir Putin or any other adversaries being able,
one way or another, to pose such an existential threat to our nation
demands corrective action without further delay. What is needed now is
nothing less than a crash, supreme-priority Manhattan Project-style
national effort. We must bring to bear the best minds and the necessary
resources to protect our critical infrastructure and, thereby, help
preserve this country and the rest of the Free World in the face of the
present danger – and those in the offing.