El Neocastrismo y España después del 20 de noviembre ( I )

Cubanálisis El Think-Tank

Antonio Arencibia

Las elecciones del 20 de Noviembre en España, o “el 20 N”, como se les dice aquí, no se siguen con demasiado interés por los cubanos que residen fuera de la Península, y es por eso que algunos han llegado a creer que el casi garantizado triunfo de Mariano Rajoy, candidato por el Partido Popular (PP) sobre el PSOE, va a cambiar de forma sustancial las relaciones del nuevo gobierno con el régimen de La Habana.

Para empezar a argumentar en contra de esa simplificación nos concentraremos primero en ofrecer una actualización económica. Hay que empezar por decir que la España que van a gobernar los Populares tiene cinco millones de parados, una cifra cercana a la población de Finlandia, y medio millón más que la de Irlanda, por citar solo dos países de la zona euro. Eso es consecuencia de la crisis financiera mundial que afectó a la economía española a fines del 2008 y que comenzó -como en otros países- por el estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria causado por el impago de préstamos hipotecarios otorgados hasta por 50 años.

No obstante, todavía en el 2010, el Banco Mundial consideraba la economía española como la quinta más grande de la Unión Europea (UE) y en términos absolutos la duodécima del mundo. Pero en una fecha como la del pasado viernes 11-11-11, que parecería auspiciosa, la Comisión Europea lanza un mal vaticinio para España: la tasa de crecimiento será este año y el próximo del 0,7 por ciento. Eso equivale a que el paro español va a seguir creciendo, pues no se crearán, sino se seguirán destruyendo empleos.

Ahora bien, no se trata solo de la crisis de España, sino la de la economía del euro, pues la Comisión considera que esa zona crecerá apenas el 0,5% en 2012, es decir, menos aún que la española, y perfila que Italia, Portugal y Grecia irán o continuarán en recesión al menos hasta el 2013.

Como la crisis hasta ahora ha obviado al Asia y a América Latina, los políticos de esta última región han cambiado la percepción de las alianzas y las prioridades, lo que explica la ausencia de la mayoría de los mandatarios latinoamericanos de la Cumbre Iberoamericana de Asunción, Paraguay. Esto fue reflejo de dos contundentes realidades: primera, que para este sub-continente, España no tiene casi nada que ofrecer y Europa ya pesa menos que China; y segunda, que España cada vez decide menos dentro de la UE y el mundo mientras se mantenga en el grupo de los P.I.I.G.S. (siglas que en inglés tienen una intención nada agradable y se aplica al conjunto de los rezagados de la zona euro: Portugal, Italia, Irlanda, Grecia y España).

Como muestra del acercamiento de los latinoamericanos con los chinos, recordemos que Perú, bajo el gobierno del aprista Alan García, firmó un Tratado de Libre Comercio con China que entró en vigor en marzo del 2010, y en estos momentos el gigante asiático ha sobrepasado a Estados Unidos como principal importador de productos peruanos. Las relaciones económicas con Chile hacen de China su primer socio comercial, pues en el primer semestre de 2011 el intercambio aumentó en un 15,9% comparando con igual período del año anterior. Y se llevó a cabo un crecimiento del 38,7% en las importaciones de productos chinos, que ahora ocupan el segundo lugar.

 “China revive la economía argentina”, titula el diario español El País un artículo que plantea como los chinos han llegado a ser segundos socios comerciales de Argentina, sólo por detrás de Brasil. Como recoge en su blog Run-run el venezolano Nelson Bocaranda, ante la avalancha de inversiones del gigante asiático, brasileños y argentinos han empezado a apodar a la región: “Lachinoamérica”.

¿Pero, a qué viene todo lo anterior?, se preguntará algún lector preocupado porque nos estamos apartando del tema Cuba-España. Pues es que hay que presentar primero el cuadro global para poder entender las conclusiones. Adelantemos una de estas: la mayoría de las empresas españolas en la Isla van a estar en desventaja frente a los chinos. Primero observemos el comportamiento reciente de esas empresas.

El economista español José Lázaro, en un trabajo presentado al Instituto de Estudios Latinoamericanos de la Universidad de Alcalá, recuerda como a inicios de la década del 2000 el capital español mantenía la primacía alcanzada en 1998, cuando el régimen abrió a inversiones extranjeras parte de la economía cubana. En el 2001 España tenía constituidas 19 asociaciones económicas internacionales en los sectores del turismo y la construcción, 16 en la industria ligera, 11 en la industria básica, y 7 en la agricultura. En aquel año, un poco más de la cuarta parte de las 400 asociaciones económicas que había en la Isla, correspondían a empresarios peninsulares.

Pero aquella situación favorable empezó a cambiar cuando en el 2007, Chávez firmó 15 acuerdos de cooperación con Raúl Castro en los que se establecían numerosas empresas conjuntas, lo que dio lugar al inicio del desplazamiento de España del primer lugar como inversionista extranjero en la Isla.

En 2009 se produjo una gran caída de exportaciones en general, porque el régimen bloqueó las transferencias de capitales al extranjero y ordenó restringir las importaciones. El año terminó para España con un descenso de un 41% en las exportaciones a Cuba. La tendencia en el 2010 volvió a cambiar y empezó cierta recuperación de las exportaciones españolas, y actualmente los hombres de negocios de España y otros países están esperando se cumplan las promesas de Raúl Castro de que la congelación de la repatriación de sus ganancias va a ser revertida

Los negocios de España en Cuba

No obstante, si analizamos por sectores, se mantuvo la presencia mayoritaria española en el sector del turismo. Aparte de su importancia como cuarto país emisor de turismo hacia Cuba del 2004 al 2008, las corporaciones españolas están de lleno en la Isla en varias cadenas hoteleras:

Sol Meliá, con más de 25 hoteles, controla el 37 por ciento del mercado hotelero en Cuba y tiene la quinta parte de las instalaciones de cuatro y cinco estrellas.

NH Hoteles, tiene dos instalaciones, una en La Habana y otra en Cayo Coco, con un total de 968 habitaciones de cuatro y cinco estrellas

Barceló Hotels & Resorts, opera 1,464 habitaciones distribuidas en cuatro hoteles, tres cinco estrellas en Varadero y uno cuatro estrellas en Cayo Largo.

Iberostar Hotels & Resorts, tiene cinco hoteles, 3 cinco estrellas y 2 de cuatro, con 1,401 habitaciones, cuatro de ellos en Varadero y uno en Cayo Guillermo.

Occidental Hotels & Resorts, comercializa 1,433 habitaciones en tres hoteles de cinco, cuatro y tres estrellas, respectivamente, en Villa Clara, Holguín y La Habana.

Hotetur Hotels & Resorts, gestiona cuatro hoteles con un total de 1,210 habitaciones: dos en Varadero, uno en Cayo Coco y otro en la capital.

Hoteles C, se encarga de la administración y comercialización de diez hoteles con un total de 2,583 habitaciones.

Globalia Hotels & Resorts es un conglomerado de empresas españolas que integran entre otras Air Europa, Halcón Viajes, Travelplan y Pepeworld, y gestiona ocho hoteles en Cuba con un total de 2,342 habitaciones.

El trabajo arriba mencionado hace un balance de la participación de las mencionadas empresas en el turismo en Cuba. Sus capacidades son de unas 11,340 habitaciones, mayormente de 4 y 5 estrellas, distribuidas en unos 60 hoteles operados por españoles.

Además destaca como elemento importante, la firma de convenios de cooperación de esas empresas con las principales corporaciones hoteleras del régimen, como “Cubanacán, Gran Caribe, Horizontes y Gaviota, para la realización de inversiones y la explotación conjunta zonas de desarrollo turístico en Cuba”.

Contrapunteo por el tabaco

España se posicionó en el sector cubano de producción y venta de tabacos y cigarrillos de forma coyuntural en los años 90, cuando su empresa estatal Tabacalera, que comercializaba esos productos, entró en el negocio de la refacción, es decir, el préstamo a corto plazo con garantía de cobrar en especie.

Debido a los problemas de liquidez del régimen Tabacalera llegó a recibir en pago algunos activos físicos cubanos de ese sector. Y cuando en 1999 fue privatizada, los nuevos dueños y accionistas se aliaron como mayoritarios a capitales franceses, y bajo el nuevo nombre de Altadis siguieron al frente del sector tabacalero en asociación al 50 por ciento con la estatal cubana Corporación Habanos, propietaria de las marcas Cohiba, Montecristo y Partagás.

Abreviemos para no hacer una verdadera “historia del tabaco”. En el 2003 Altadis reordenó su actividad en Cuba y formó la ITI Cigars, una sombrilla empresarial que agrupaba a la Corporación Habanos y otras sociedades cubanas menores, todas propiedad de Altadis, (Tabacalera Brands, Promotora de Cigarros, y Altabana), para la elaboración y venta de puros cubanos. Altadis llegó a ser entonces la primera tabacalera del mundo en el mercado de puros.

Hasta entonces el control mayoritario del sector tabacalero cubano estaba en manos españolas, pero en enero del 2008 Altadis fue adquirida por la empresa británica Imperial Tobacco, que es la que controla en la actualidad el 50 por ciento de la corporación castrista de producción y venta de puros habanos, rebautizada ahora Habanos S.A.

Como era habitual por acuerdo con el régimen cuando los españoles estaban al frente de ese giro, los británicos tampoco revelan cifras de las ventas y ganancias de sus negocios en Cuba.

Hay que decir también que en Cuba se han radicado cuatro bancos españoles: el Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), la Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo (CAM), el Banco Sabadell, y Caja Madrid. Además, las dos últimas instituciones mencionadas han constituido empresas mixtas con los bancos del régimen, Nueva Banca y Banco Popular de Ahorro, creándose las entidades Financiera Iberoamericana y Corporación Financiera Habana.

No podemos ignorar todo lo que se ha escrito sobre el rol de la transnacional Repsol en la exploración petrolera en aguas profundas cubanas planeadas para inicios del 2012, después que arribe a la Isla la costosa plataforma semi-sumergible de última generación Scarabeo 9.

Al respecto hay que señalar que se acaban de presentar dos mociones promovidas por legisladores cubano-americanos, una en el Senado norteamericano y otra similar en la Cámara de Representantes, para garantizar compensaciones sin límites por derrames petroleros en aguas extranjeras que afecten a Estados Unidos. Se trata de un nuevo intento por frenar la prospección y explotación de hidrocarburos en la Zona Económica Exclusiva de Cuba en el Golfo de México.

Como he apuntado en ocasión anterior, la corporación Repsol se está complicando innecesariamente por el giro político que sigue tomando el tema de la perforación marítima en Cuba, lo que puede afectarle a nivel financiero y de oportunidades de nuevos negocios en Estados Unidos.

Tendría que sopesar que esa tarea tiene menos pro que contra, mucho más cuando acaba de reportar un gran hallazgo de hidrocarburos en el suroeste de Argentina. Según declaró un vocero de Repsol, se trata del mayor descubrimiento de petróleo en la historia de ese grupo español, y como consecuencia del anuncio las acciones de la petrolera se dispararon más de un 5 por ciento en la Bolsa de Madrid.

Poco futuro para las PYMES españolas

Para concluir este punto hay que aclarar que, por muchos hoteleros, banqueros y petroleros españoles que sumemos, no llegan a las doscientas y tantas empresas españolas que reportaba en marzo de este año el Consejo Superior de Cámaras de Comercio de España.

Es que una gran parte de los negocios españoles en Cuba la realizan pequeñas y medianas empresas (PYMES) que se dedican al suministro de recursos para la hostelería y materiales de construcción, mobiliario, alimentos y bebidas, productos de consumo, equipamiento eléctrico, repuestos para automóviles y camiones, alimentos y manejo de la carga aérea y mantenimiento de aeronaves, entre muchas otras.

Pero a veces no son siquiera fabricantes, sino intermediarios que no aportan valor al producto que ofrecen, aunque saben moverse en el medio político y económico castrista. Por eso, si se abre el mercado no tienen más posibilidades que de un nicho comercial marginal. Además, el gobierno neocastrista pretende prescindir de ellos haciendo compras directamente a los fabricantes. Eso reduciría la presencia de España a la hotelería y a los suministros y ventas muy puntuales en sectores y empresas específicos.

Como alertamos arriba, si se abre para el régimen neocastrista el acceso a nuevas fuentes de financiamiento, suministros e inversión -por ejemplo de China- difícilmente las PYMES españolas puedan sobrevivir.

Finalmente, y solo en lo referente a la parte económica de este asunto, observemos en los anexos el gran desbalance en el intercambio comercial entre España y Cuba, que siempre trae saldos favorables para la parte española.

El bajo nivel de las exportaciones cubanas a España de tabaco, ron, pescados y mariscos, y materias primas y semielaboradas, es una muestra más de que el régimen no solo no produce para el consumo nacional, sino que ni siquiera es capaz de producir para exportar a mercados tradicionales.

Mas >

Tunisia: From Dictatorship to Democracy

Wall Street Journal

In Tunisia's first elections since the nation toppled its leader and sparked the Arab Spring uprisings in January, much larger-than-expected crowds turned out to vote in what looks likely to be the freest and fairest elections ever held in the Middle East.

More important than the matter of who wins Sunday will be the process of carrying out a democratic election in a region that has mostly known dictators for decades, a process that Tunisians were proudly willing to wait in long lines to see through.

"Our goal is to join the democratic world," said Walid Sellami, a 27-year-old financial consultant voting in an upscale Tunisian neighborhood. "No one cares about the lines. We're just happy to be voting."

Tunisians will elect a 218-seat constitutional assembly, which will appoint an interim government and have one year to rewrite the constitution. Tunisia's Islamist Nahda Party is broadly expected to win a solid victory.

The election's impact may only be enhanced by the death this week of Moammar Gadhafi, the third and longest-running autocrat to be brought down by the protests that began 10 months ago in Tunisia.

Democracy activists across the region hope that a successful vote here could galvanize pro-democracy movements that have flagged amid violent regime crackdowns, as in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, and by a pushback by old-guard counterrevolutionary forces, as in Egypt.

How to Run a Winning Political Campaign: Fight Back Fast

La clase media ya es mayoritaria en Brasil

Juan Arias / El Pais

En el centro del debate político brasileño reina la novedad de la nueva clase media, que ya es mayoritaria en la sociedad y por tanto capaz de decidir unas elecciones. Políticos, sociólogos, periodistas y analistas sociales bucean en esta nueva realidad preguntándose cómo es esta clase media que, de minoritaria hace sólo 10 años, hoy ocupa el centro de la antigua pirámide social. La estructura social brasileña ya no es piramidal, gracias a los 30 millones de pobres que, en los ocho años de la presidencia del exsindicalista y tornero mecánico Lula da Silva, saltaron de la pobreza a la clase media baja.

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Researchers Hack Voting Machine for $26

Campaigning for the 2012 presidential race has already begun, but what the candidates don't know is that come election day, hackers could be the ones whose votes have the biggest impact.

Researchers from the Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois have developed a hack that, for about $26 and an 8th-grade science education, can remotely manipulate the electronic voting machines used by millions of voters all across the U.S.

The researchers, Salon reported, performed their proof-of-concept hack on a Diebold Accuvote TS electronic voting machine, a type of touchscreen Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) voting system that is widely used for government elections.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/30/researchers-hack-voting-machine-for-26/?test=latestnews#ixzz1ZXzrwL00

Canadian Moron: Trade Prince Edward Island [Canada] spuds for Cuban MDs, candidate says

One enterprising political candidate wants to trade surplus PEI potatoes for Cuban MDs to address a doctor defeciency on the island.

shutterstock

Richard Foot Special to the Star

How many Cuban doctors would a shipload of potatoes buy?

That’s a question Prince Edward Island voters are being asked to consider in the final week of their provincial election campaign.

Jason MacGregor, a candidate for the fledgling Island Party of P.E.I., says the province could solve its chronic doctor shortage by trading its famous potatoes for Cuban physicians.

P.E.I. has long been plagued by doctor shortages, particularly in rural areas such as Souris-Elmira, where MacGregor lives.

“We used to have an emergency room, but that’s closed,” MacGregor said in an interview Wednesday. “We now have a clinic only open two to three days a week.”

In his district of 3,200 people, there are only two doctors, he said.

Cuba’s communist government has for years dispatched thousands of doctors and medics abroad in return for hard currency, or oil. MacGregor, a recent university graduate who majored in international development, says a similar deal could be negotiated with P.E.I. spuds.

“Potatoes offer a nutrient they don’t grow in their own country, and on P.E.I. a lot of our farmers have excess potatoes each year, and a lot of these are plowed back into the fields.

“So instead of all those potatoes going to waste, we could export them in return for doctors.”

A call to the Cuban embassy in Ottawa wasn’t answered Wednesday, but MacGregor says if a trade deal like this could be worked out with P.E.I., there’s no reason other provinces couldn’t trade their own goods for Cuban medical expertise.

The doctor shortage has been a hot political potato on the island for years, and helped vault Liberal Premier Robert Ghiz into power in 2007.

Four years ago the province had the lowest ratio of doctors in the country — 150 for every 100,000 people. Ghiz vowed at the time to bring in enough doctors to provide a family physician for every Islander.

“Write that one down, because I expect to be held accountable for that commitment,” he said, before winning the 2007 election.

Four years later the shortage remains, with more than 6,000 Islanders on a provincial waiting list for a family physician. In 2009, the most recent year for which data are available, P.E.I. had 165 doctors for every 100,000 people, still the lowest number in Canada.

Despite his unfilled promise, Ghiz — the son of former Trudeau-era premier Joe Ghiz — is widely expected to be re-elected on Monday. His government held 24 of 27 seats in the legislature before the campaign.

An opinion poll on Sept. 6 showed the Ghiz Liberals with 59 per cent support among decided voters, compared to 31 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, led by Olive Crane.

The Ghiz government, however, has been buffeted during the campaign by accusations of corruption surrounding a federal-provincial immigration scheme, in which provinces sponsored wealthy immigrants to Canada in return for the immigrants investing money in local businesses.

The program has long been accused of mismanagement, and the Charlottetown government has never explained where roughly $400 million — paid by thousands of mostly Hong Kong immigrants — ended up between 2008 and 2009.

Last week the campaign was rocked by allegations made by three former provincial civil servants, that Canadian public officials had received cash bribes under the program.

An earlier investigation by P.E.I.’s auditor general found that companies with Liberal government connections had received some of the investor money. The RCMP is now reviewing whether to formally investigate the bribery allegations.

Ghiz, accused by Crane of having his family members benefit from the program, has denied any wrongdoing and dismissed the accusations as “dirty politics.”

Russia 2012 Ticket

Putin y Medvedev intercambian nuevamente sus puestos

El Pais

Ya se conoce el nombre del próximo presidente de Rusia: Vladímir Putin. En el congreso del partido gubernamental Rusia Unida, el actual jefe de Estado, Dmitri Medvédev, propuso la candidatura de hombre fuerte del país para las elecciones presidenciales de 2012. Minutos antes, Putin había propuesto a Medvédev que encabezara la lista de Rusia Unida en las parlamentarias de diciembre próximo. La noticia -que fue una sorpresa pues los analistas esperaban que la decisión de quién sería el candidato presidencial se tomaría a último minuto., es un balde de agua fría sobre las cabezas de quienes tenían esperanzas en un programa reformas democráticas. 

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'I'll be a good prime minister': Russian 3rd richest man launches new venture

Uploaded by RussiaToday on Jun 25, 2011

Russia's third richest man has set his sights on politics after conquering the world of business. Mikhail Prokhorov has been elected leader of 'The Right Cause' party, which plans to run in December's parliamentary elections. RT's Egor Piskunov has spoken exclusively to him in Moscow.

Appearance of Democracy: Cover for a More Aggressive Russia

New Zeal Blog

This excellent piece is written by Lauren Goodrich of Stratfor. Very few have such a good grasp on the way the Kremlin thinks and operates, and the growing threat it represents. This is one of those articles that you read and then email on to friends. 

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Russia has entered election season, with parliamentary elections in December and presidential elections in March 2012. Typically, this is not an issue of concern, as most Russian elections have been designed to usher a chosen candidate and political party into office since 2000. Interesting shifts are under way this election season, however. While on the surface they may resemble political squabbles and instability, they actually represent the next step in the Russian leadership’s consolidation of the state.

In the past decade, one person has consolidated and run Russia’s political system: former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Putin’s ascension to the leadership of the Kremlin marked the start of the reconsolidation of the Russian state after the decade of chaos that followed the fall of the Soviet Union. Under Putin’s presidential predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s strategic economic assets were pillaged, the core strength of the country — the KGB, now known as the Federal Security Service (FSB), and the military — fell into decay, and the political system was in disarray. Though Russia was considered a democracy and a new friend to the West, this was only because Russia had no other option — it was a broken country.

Perceptions of Putin

Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister of Russia

Putin’s goal was to fix the country, which meant restoring state control (politically, socially and economically), strengthening the FSB and military and re-establishing Russia’s influence and international reputation — especially in the former Soviet sphere of influence. To do so, Putin had to carry Russia through a complex evolution that involved shifting the country from accommodating to aggressive at specific moments. This led to a shift in global perceptions of Putin, with many beginning to see the former KGB agent as a hard-nosed autocrat set upon rekindling hostilities and renewing militarization.

This perception of Putin is not quite correct. While an autocrat and KGB agent (we use the present tense, as Putin has said that no one is a former KGB or FSB agent), he hails from St. Petersburg, Russia’s most pro-Western city, and during his Soviet-era KGB service he was tasked with stealing Western technology. Putin fully understands the strength of the West and what Western expertise is needed to keep Russia relatively modern and strong. At the same time, his time with the KGB convinced him that Russia can never truly be integrated into the West and that it can be strong only with a consolidated government, economy and security service and a single, autocratic leader.

Full story...

Russia's Evolving Leadership

STRATFOR

 By Lauren Goodrich | July 5, 2011

Russia has entered election season, with parliamentary elections in December and presidential elections in March 2012. Typically, this is not an issue of concern, as most Russian elections have been designed to usher a chosen candidate and political party into office since 2000. Interesting shifts are under way this election season, however. While on the surface they may resemble political squabbles and instability, they actually represent the next step in the Russian leadership’s consolidation of the state.

In the past decade, one person has consolidated and run Russia’s political system: former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Putin’s ascension to the leadership of the Kremlin marked the start of the reconsolidation of the Russian state after the decade of chaos that followed the fall of the Soviet Union. Under Putin’s presidential predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s strategic economic assets were pillaged, the core strength of the country — the KGB, now known as the Federal Security Service (FSB), and the military — fell into decay, and the political system was in disarray. Though Russia was considered a democracy and a new friend to the West, this was only because Russia had no other option — it was a broken country. Read more »

Three Venezuelan scenarios – none of them good/ Oppenheimer

By Andres Oppenheimer

aoppenheimer@MiamiHerald.com

Now that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has publicly conceded that he has cancer — after his regime had accused independent media of being “agents of imperialism” for speculating that his prolonged stay in Cuba was due to a serious illness — here are three scenarios of what may happen in Venezuela. All of them point to turbulent times ahead.
Scenario 1: Chávez beats the odds. The Venezuelan president, who has been hospitalized in Havana since June 10, returns to his country to continue his cancer treatment at home and recovers in time to run for the December 2012 elections.
Despite his sagging popularity, which according to a recent Keller and Associates poll has dropped to 41 percent, while 53 percent of Venezuelans reject him, Chávez draws public sympathy for his illness. It’s hard for opposition leaders to criticize an ailing Chávez for his disastrous economic management.
Venezuela’s economy — despite benefiting from the biggest oil boom in history, it ended last year with one of the lowest growth rates and highest inflation levels in Latin America — continues to deteriorate. Chávez’s highly personalized ruling style results in even greater economic chaos with an ailing president who can only work part time.
But Chávez, making the most of his illness, campaigns as a humbler, more conciliatory candidate, and — helped by a divided opposition — draws enough support to win the next elections.
Scenario 2: Chávez’s big brother steps forward. Chávez has to undergo tough chemotherapy sessions that drain him physically and emotionally, preventing him from running for president. At the advice of Cuba’s Castro brothers — who would have the most to lose if Venezuela’s opposition wins next year’s elections and cuts Chávez’s massive oil subsidies to the island — Chávez nominates his older brother, Adán Chávez, as his government’s presidential candidate.
Adán Chávez, a physicist who has been one of the president’s political mentors, has been Venezuela’s ambassador to Cuba, and is seen as the Chávez government’s top liaison with the island’s regime. Adán Chávez is currently governor of the Chávez family native Barinas state and is seen as the leader of the Chávez inner circle’s radical leftist, pro-Cuban wing.
On June 27, amid growing rumors in Venezuela that the president had cancer, Adán Chávez was quoted by Venezuelan media as saying that it would be “unforgivable” for the government “to limit itself only to electoral ways, and not to pursue other methods of struggle, including armed struggle,” to stay in power.
Scenario 3: A military-supported “Bolivarian bourgeoisie” candidate. A fierce power struggle erupts within the president’s inner circle, and Venezuela’s military hierarchy persuades the president to appoint former Vice President Diosdado Cabello — Chávez’s all-purpose aide and bagman — as the government’s presidential candidate.
The top armed forces generals, many of whom have become multimillionaires under the Chávez regime but do not support a Cuban-styled communist model, fear Adán Chávez would replace the armed forces with Cuban-styled semi-independent territorial militias. They support Cabello, who is believed to have become fabulously rich himself in recent years, because he would lead a crony capitalist government without abandoning Chávez’s radical leftist rhetoric.
My opinion: Chávez would obviously prefer the first scenario, but if his health doesn’t allow him to run for reelection, he will go for the second one — his elder brother.
It won’t be a smooth ride. Between now and the 2012 elections, a partial power void at the top is likely to encourage greater corruption and mismanagement. A highly personalized government whose maximum leader can only work part time — and spends long periods of time receiving medical treatment in Cuba — can only result in uncertainty and greater economic chaos.
Amid the coming political turmoil, Venezuela’s opposition will have its greatest opportunity ever to prove its democratic credentials, and show that it doesn’t support any other outcome than peaceful elections next year.
Let’s hope they don’t squander this opportunity, because the coming political unrest will tempt all sides with extra-constitutional solutions.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/07/01/2296977/three-venezuelan-scenarios-none.html#ixzz1R0uvvv3C

China's "Independent Candidates" Irk Ruling Communist Party

In China, a handful of well-known commentators, scholars and activists are hoping to participate in the country’s grassroots election this year. But their success, in a mostly symbolic democratic process, remains to be seen. The Communist regime has already signaled its lack of tolerance for independent candidates for the local People’s Congresses.

Long-time petitioner Liu Ping from Xingyu in Jiangxi province was one of the first to put up her hand. Her local election—a trial run for the rest of the country—was in May. But her campaign was cut short, after authorities harassed her for her candidacy.

[Liu Ping, Former Local People’s Congress Candidate]:
“On May 11, I sent a text to seek outside help, then our electricity was cut off. On the 12th I was arrested, and the next morning they searched my home. They frantically suppressed me, fearing I would represent the people.”

The local People’s Congress is the lowest level of governance under the Chinese regime. They are elected every five years. Under the Chinese constitution, anyone can run for elections. They just need to be nominated by ten or more voters in their constituency.

So far, more than 120 people have put their names in the hat across the country—many with the help of social media. More well known ones like journalist-turned author, Li Chengpeng announced his candidacy in Chengdu to nearly three million microblog followers.

The Chinese regime has not sat well with this display of political awareness. Its Propaganda Department has already banned media coverage of many candidates. The state-run Global Times also ran an editorial on May 30th warning against so called “hostile foreign forces” influencing candidates.

The local People’s Congress election will take place until the end of next year. While elected representatives, or deputies, may have a small influence on local policies, much of the political power still lies with the ruling Communist Party. Party chiefs and secretaries are placed at each level of governance, and they largely toe the line of the Party central in Beijing.

#Egipt - The Muslim Brotherhood Mobilizes

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has decided to field candidates for more than half of the nation’s parliamentary seats, up from 45%, with its candidates benefiting from the party’s high level of organization in comparison to all other organizations. Although the group intended to play a less-than-dominant role in the first post-Mubarak government, this decision will make it the deal-maker in the new government and the dominant force in drafting the nation’s first civilian constitution.
The decision is not going unnoticed by other political factions — and even by the shrewder elements of the Brotherhood, who want to avoid pitting themselves against the society in its first free elections. An article in the leading Egyptian paper Al-Ahram, translated below, reveals that all of the non-Islamist factions are organizing to counter the massive power wielded by the Brotherhood.

FULL STORY

#Harper Romps to Victory in #Canada: 5 Questions for Canadian Political Scientist David Rayside

Yesterday, Stephen Harper and Canada’s Conservatives romped home to victory in Canada’s federal election. Holding office as a minority government for the past five years, Harper now has a majority in the House of Commons, winning 167 of the chamber’s 308 seats. The polls had pointed to an historic result for the New Democratic Party, and they look to have won more than 100 seats, up from 37 in 2008. The big losers, however, were the Liberal Party, which had governed Canada for much of the 20th century but fell to only 34 seats, while the Bloc Québécois, owing to the NDP’s surge in the province, was reduced from 49 seats to just a handful. To help us make sense of the election result, we turned to University of Toronto political scientist and Britannica contributor David Rayside, editor (with Clyde Wilcox) of the recently published Faith, Politics, and Sexual Diversity in Canada and the United States and author of Queer Inclusions, Continental Divisions: Public Recognition of Sexual Diversity in Canada and the United States and who on this busy morning in Canadian politics kindly agreed to answer a few questions from Britannica Executive Editor Michael Levy.

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FULL STORY

#Canada votes Conservative

"Whether or not you cast a vote for us today our government must and will stand on guard for all regions, and we will do so faithfully,” Stephen Harper said last night.

GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Richard J. Brennan and Bruce Campion-Smith

The Conservatives have finally captured their coveted majority government in an historic election that vaulted the NDP to a stunning second-place finish, making them the official Opposition, pushing aside the Liberals to a humiliating third.

At the Telus Convention Centre in Calgary, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper expressed elation at his huge win.

"What a great night," Harper told more than 1,500 cheering Conservative supporters.

"A strong, stable, national Conservative government," he said.

Harper said Canadians "can now turn the page from uncertainties" with a majority government.

FULL STORY

Could be #Canada a #Socialist country?-See the last poll

Legend:

1. CONSERVATIVE PARTY-37.1%
2. NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY-31.6%
3. LIBERAL PARTY 
4. BLOC QUEBECOIS
5. GREEN PARTY

#Canadians prepare to go to polls

For the fourth time in seven years, Canadians are preparing to elect a new government on Monday. For weeks, it seemed that the outcome of the election was a forgone conclusion. Voters anticipated the third unstable Conservative minority government in a row. But late in the campaign, opinion polls show that a party [New Democratic Party, with strong socialistic agenda] that usually finishes in third place has a sudden surge in momentum.

Miles de armenios salen a la calle para pedir elecciones anticipadas

LEER

#Peru : Jaime #Bayly interpela a Ollanta Humala