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Dynamic criminalization of Cuba

20 September 2010 at 0717 in Crime, Government, Havana, International Relations, Organized crime, Population, US, Violence, corruption by Armando F. Mastrapa 3d

Mark Galeotti, academic chairman of NYU’s Center for Global Affairs and an expert in transnational organized crime, wrote an article on organized crime in Cuba entitled “Forward to the Past: Organized Crime and Cuba’s History, Present and Future,” for the journal Trends in Organized Crime (Volume 9, Number 3, 45-60).
Take notice of Galeotti’s point on the effect of a regime collapse:

Cuba is also beginning to suffer from both domestic drug abuse and the first indications of organized criminality at home. This is very limited compared with the strength of Cuban-American organized crime in the United States, but does open up the prospect of these groups exploiting any weaknesses in Cuba to reestablish operations on the island. Although it is possible that the revolutionary regime might survive Castro, at the very least it will experience a turbulent transition, one in which power politics will divert attention from the problem of growing crime. Were the Cuban Communist Party to fall, either to a democratic revolution or a military coup, then either way this would probably generate increased domestic organized crime and open up the country even more rapidly to international criminal influences. Perhaps the final tragedy of the revolutionary regime, born out of a rejection of authoritarian rule and rampant organized crime, is that it will have proven to lay the foundations for an even more dynamic and voracious criminalization of Cuba.

His analysis also includes Cuba’s trafficking nexus, criminal market, and offshore criminal zone.
Galeotti’s aptly describes the future of criminalization on the island:

Castro’s death could open up Cuba once again to become a “free criminal zone,” run either by corrupted descendants of the present regime or a new, post-revolutionary one. This could have a far more dangerous impact on the United States. Just as during the Cold War, the island’s proximity meant that it was regarded as a potential military and ideological beachhead for communist in the Western hemisphere, so to the presence of a criminalized Cuba could represent a serious law-enforcement and security challenge.
[...]
Almost any scenario for the future carries with it severe dangers. It may collapse and be replaced by a democratizing regime—while a welcome development, this is likely to mean a rapid and uncontrolled marketization, throwing open great opportunities for organized crime.