The threat matrix that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement closely monitor to guard against terror attacks has ticked up in recent weeks as groups such as al Qaeda eagerly try to regroup from a series of leadership losses, including the killing of Osama bin Laden, federal officials say.
Officials caution that there is no specific, credible threat of an impending attack as Americans head into the Fourth of July holiday, but their growing caution is evidenced by a series of recent bulletins they’ve sent local law enforcement.
One bulletin last week disclosed that evidence found in bin Laden’s possession in May, when he was killed by U.S. special forces in Pakistan, indicated an interest in attacking Americans at major holiday gatherings, including Independence Day celebrations.
Another warned of Internet chatter that an al Qaeda affiliate had identified more than 40 prominent Americans the terrorist group wanted killed.
“There is a higher threat environment,” says Frances Fragos Townsend, a national security expert who advised George W. Bush on homeland security issues.
In past years, some holiday weekends have passed without incident after similar law enforcement warnings. But the increased vigilance comes as the Obama administration overhauled its anti-terror strategy earlier this week—after fresh signs of America’s vulnerabilities surfaced in New York, when a Nigerian man slipped past airport security with a fake ID and boarded a flight.
One development driving the concern of U.S. officials is the ascension of longtime Egyptian extremist Ayman al-Zawahiri as the new leader of al Qaeda.
Long the No. 2 to bin Laden, al-Zawahiri is an operational expert who lacks bin Laden’s magnetism and charisma, and U.S. officials suspect he may seek to win favor and loyalty among his lukewarm troops by trying to pull off a big attack soon against a Western target.
“We knew that in the aftermath of the Osama bin Laden killing, there was likely to be retaliatory attacks,” Townsend explained. “Al-Zawahiri was saying that he was planning something. The Pakistani Taliban said they were going to take revenge. All that suggests that we’re facing a higher threat.”
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