According to the United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) heavy duty and tractor trailer truck drivers made $38.2k per year in 2012 and 1.7 million worked in that job in 2012. BLS projects that from 2012 to 2022 the number of truck drivers will grow by 11%, about in pace with overall employment.
I looked into these numbers curious to see if BLS is considering any
impacts on employment due to the rise of autonomous vehicles. Short
answer: No. Yet long haul trucking seems like an ideal first use of
autonomous vehicle technology. Long haul trucks are expensive pieces of
capital equipment with high rates of use. Autonomous operation could not
only cut labor costs but also speed up deliveries since computer cores
do not need to sleep. Plus, once the technology is mature autonomous
operation will cut accident rates. This will both cut costs and save
lives.
Long haul trucking seems especially attractive as the first
application of autonomous commercial vehicle technology (and I am
ignoring existing autonomous surface mine vehicles that do not use
normal roads).. The trucks would not need the (greater) level of
sophistication needed to drive autonomously on surface roads. A skilled
driver could move the truck to a freeway, get out, and then let
automation take over. Then at the other end the truck could stop and let
a driver climb in and drive off the freeway and onto trickier surface
roads.
Some issues would need to be worked out. Refueling comes to mind. I
think long haul truck stops with special off lanes could be built.
Drivers, working rather like port pilots who take over ships near port,
could drive each truck to a refueling station and eventually move the
truck the truck stop's on ramp.
Is 2022 too soon for autonomous trucks to start taking on a
significant portion of long haul truck trips? Perhaps by a few years. Mercedes has a Future Truck 2025 Autonomous Driving Demo.
Don't expect to work as a long haul trucker 15 years from now.
By contrast, the 654,000 driving buses (most of whom are school bus drivers)
will keep their jobs longer than long haul truck drivers. School bus
drivers provide supervision of kids as well as deal with pedestrians and
the behavior of other vehicles in very varied environments.
Only 81,600 work in water transport occupations
with a projection of 13% growth by 2022. Boat pilo ting seems like a
job ripe for automation. But not that many jobs are at stake.
Railroad worker employment is projected to drop by 3% from 113,800 jobs in 2012
in spite of growth in traffic. BLS attributes this to expected advances
in automation. Out of all the transportation industry occupations
listed by BLS only flight attendants are projected to decline by more (down 7% by 2022).
If you are curious you can have a look at the BLS transportation and materials moving occupations projections.
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