cuando en la pasada asamblea nacional murillo y raul al mencionar la
unificacion monetaria afirmaron que en el 2do semestre se habian
resuelto complejos problemas, tuve la evidencia que esperaba que la
causa de la demora habia sido la preparacion de los cuadros de base para
asimilar el proceso. dando por sentado que le han metido el
procedimiento a seguir el dia cero en el hipotalamo al contador del
valle de caujeri y a la empresa de pan y dulces de la lisa, lo que no
descarta los errores implicitos en la aplicacion que mencionaba en el
mamotreto que hace tiempo publico cubanalisis, el momento actual es el
idoneo para decretar el cambiazo. puedo aun suponer que con el cierre de
operaciones del ano que se entrega del 10-15 de enero ello ocurrira.
si no fuera asi, entonces los problemas y posiblemente las resistencias
serian aun mas complejos, pero este es el momento mas propicio.
-------------------
Bloomberg
Cuba’s dual-peso system, in place for 20
years, will soon be no more and cigar maker Brascuba is ready
for the currency’s unification.
“It’s imminent; we are prepared for it and expect it for
the first quarter,” Alexandre Carpenter, co-president of
Brascuba, a joint venture between Rio de Janeiro-based Souza
Cruz SA and state-owned Tabacuba, said in a telephone interview
on Dec. 30. As of now, there is no set date for the currency
change, he said.
The plan for a single currency was disclosed in 2013 and
comes as the nation of 11.1 million, where most of the economy
is under state control, slowly opens its doors to foreign
nations and more privatization. Cuban Central Bank President
Ernesto Medina told the country’s state news agency in October
that the elimination of the dual system is a critical step in
preparing the economy for the global market.
U.S. President Barack Obama announced last month plans to
restore diplomatic ties with Cuba and increase trade and travel
to the island.
The collapse of Soviet Union subsidies forced the Cuban
government in 1994 to create a convertible peso worth $1 in an
effort to improve its access to dollars entering the country
through tourism and remittances by Cubans living abroad. The
convertible peso known as CUC circulates beside non-convertible
pesos most Cubans receive as salary and use to buy basic goods.
Brazilian construction company Odebrecht SA, responsible
for works in a port, airports and a sugar plant on the island,
is also ready for a single peso, according to a person close to
the discussions.
The person asked not to be named because the government is
keeping the information private to avoid a run on the currency.
Venezulean Oil
Unification is also being driven by the fall in
preferential oil supplies from Venezuela, which have allowed
President Raul Castro to maintain subsidies on basic goods
priced in non-convertible pesos, according to Rafael Romeu,
president of economic consultancy DevTech Systems and a member
of the Washington-based Association for the Study of Cuban
Economy.
“Castro’s government will no longer be able to inflate
away the inefficiencies of the economy by printing more
unconvertible pesos,” Romeu said in an e-mailed response to
questions.
An official at Cuba’s International Press Center didn’t
return a phone call and an e-mail about the timing of
unification. Today, New Year’s Day, is a public holiday in Cuba.
Romeu said the central bank will have to devalue the
currency soon after unification, as it doesn’t have enough
dollar reserves to back the convertibility of the new unified
peso. One CUC is currently worth 25 local pesos known as CUPs.
A weaker currency will increase pressure on prices and
boost inflation, he said.
“The bottom line is that the government will have to
continue eliminating subsidies until its deficit is closed and
it no longer needs to print away money,” he said. “Because of
Cuba’s low wages you can imagine how difficult it will be
politically for the government to do that.”
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