Stanton: Why John Boehner Will (Probably) Be Fine

Pat Dollard

Excerpted from Buzzfeed: WASHINGTON — Democrats and some conservatives are dreaming this weekend of a late Christmas present: House Speaker John Boehner’s head on a platter.

But that probably won’t happen, for several reasons. First, legislative coups are risky, and the fiscal cliff talks are still playing out. Meanwhile, Boehner is personally popular. The opposition has no clear leader.
But perhaps most important of all, it’s not clear that it’s in the interest of the conservative Republicans leading talk of the coup to dive into the messy business of making deals with a Democratic president and Senate, or assuming responsibility for the 2014 midterm elections.
“I’m not,” Boehner said Friday, asked whether he was worried about his speakership following the collapse of his attempt to rally Republicans around an alternative tax increase plan to President Obama’s. “They weren’t taking that out on me — they were dealing with the perception that they were raising taxes,” he said.
In theory, a coup is possible: many conservatives would gleefully support such a move — and few Democrats would shed a tear. And it would only take a handful of his conference to throw the election for speaker into chaos. As National Journal points out, it would take just 17 Republicans voting for anyone other than Boehner to throw the election into chaos.
But while he may have lost control of his conference, Boehner has a lot of reasons to not be worried about actually losing the speakership when the House convenes January 3rd to hold elections.
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