Days ago, the future of Cuba policy in President Obama's second term seemed predictable.
Kerry [L] and Hagel |
After repealing all restrictions on travel by Cuban Americans, opening categories of People-to-People travel, and restarting migration talks, progress on engagement was thwarted by the imprisonment of Alan Gross and the administration's reluctance to negotiate directly with Cuba for his release.
The prospective appointment of Susan Rice as Secretary of State -- she once told the United Nations that U.S. sanctions did not cause deprivation among the Cuban people -- seemed a signal of continuity. But, her candidacy was devoured by opponents on issues ranging from the tragedy in Benghazi to the contents of her investment portfolio, and she never arrived at the point of being nominated or given close to a fair hearing.
On the heels of her misfortune, things could get interesting. If the speculation now is accurate, President Obama may appoint Senator John Kerry, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as Secretary of State and former Senator Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense. By doing so, the president would bring into his security cabinet two seasoned figures with long histories as Cuba policy reformers and simultaneously place the Foreign Relations Committee in the hands of some of the coldest of the Cold Warriors in Congress.
Kerry, a steadfast opponent of U.S. intervention in Latin America since his election in 1984, has been consistently smart on Cuba. He supported travel rights not just for Cuban Americans but for all Americans. He would not give the Obama administration a blank check to run the USAID regime change programs in Cuba and held up funding when he could. He was a reliable skeptic of the millions spent on the anti-Cuba broadcast propaganda arms -- Radio and TV Martí -- and of the consultants and bureaucrats who create the programming that most Cubans don't see, hear, or care much about.
Chuck Hagel served two terms in the Senate and called our policy toward Cuba "senseless." When former President Jimmy Carter visited the island in 2002, he was the only Member of Congress Carter considered to ask to join his delegation, but Hagel stayed in Washington for a Senate debate on trade. Earlier, Hagel cosponsored legislation to open the Cuban market further for sales of food and medicine and repeal restrictions on travel.
If these two men are nominated and confirmed, this doesn't mean President Obama will elevate Cuba as a foreign policy priority. But it does mean that seasoned figures who urged the country to dump its Cold War baggage and normalize relations would be at the table when critical strategic decisions are made. More >>
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