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| crethiplethi.com |
On
November 15, the House Homeland Security Committee's Subcommittee on
Oversight, Investigations and Management released a report that examines
"the increased presence and influence of Iran and Hezbollah in Latin
America and their relationship with drug cartels." It also looks at the
turf wars between Mexican drug cartels and the threat they pose to the
Southwest border.
The 50-page document, titled “A Line in the Sand: Countering Crime, Violence and Terror at the Southwest Border,” determines
that "While Latin American bases serve as a finance mechanism for
Hezbollah, it is believed the ability exists to turn operational if the
need arises. There is no doubt that the enemy is at our doorstep and we
must do something about it now."
While
cited evidence from congressional reports, experts and news articles
supports some of the report's findings regarding increasing Iranian
presence in the region, the subcommittee's broader claims about
established links between Mexican drug cartels and Hezbollah/Iran posing
an imminent threat are largely unsubstantiated.
Several previous government statements and investigations
"A
Line in the Sand" details Iranian political and economic involvement in
Venezuela and other Latin American countries, funding sources for
Hezbollah in the region, incidences of criminal links between
Hezbollah-supporting individuals and/or Colombian and Mexican drug
trafficking organizations, and a failed 2011 Iranian assassination
attempt on the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S.
With regards to Iran, much of the report relays what several other government sources and analysts have found:
-
Hezbollah
receives funding from individuals, primarily within the large Lebanese
population in the region and especially those in the tri-border area
between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, who support the group, providing
a large portion of its extra-state financing.
- Of note on this matter is that according to the State Department, this has been occurring since the mid 1980s. However, Iran is Hezbollah’s primary funding source, donating at least $200 million in 2008, with income from criminal enterprises in general only representing a sliver of the group's financing.
-
Individuals who support Hezbollah are involved with criminal networks and illicit activities.
- An important note to this point is that while the cases of individuals arrested for drug trafficking and human smuggling highlighted in the report were linked to Hezbollah, the document did not identify any of them as actual members of the group.
- Iran has increased its cultural and political presence in the hemisphere and now has 11 embassies in the region.
- Iran has been able to circumvent sanctions because of its economic partnership with a few countries in the region, most notably Venezuela. It is either economically involved or looking to become economically involved with several countries in Latin America.
-
Iran has strengthened ties with Venezuela, with which it is ideologically aligned. According to testimony from analyst Douglas Farah, a 2011 Univision documentary showed Hezbollah training Venezuelan troops.
- A testimony from Ambassador Roger Noriega, visiting fellow from the American Enterprise Institute, claims Hezbollah cells and Sinaloa cartel members are operating together in Venezuela, but cites unnamed sources and fails to footnote this part of the testimony.
- In 2011 Iran attempted to hire an alleged member of the Mexican Zeta cartel to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States in Washington D.C. for a fee of $1.5 million. The Zeta operative turned out to be a DEA informant and the plot was foiled.
Aside
from more detailed expansion on these points, the report in many cases
uses these findings t make overreaching conclusions are often not
sourced, cite the same subcommittee's previous report or cite
individual's previous testimonies with unchecked sources.
In his opening statement to
present the report, subcommittee Chairman Michael McCaul sets the stage
for the report, claiming "Iran’s strategic migration and its
relationships in Latin America are a clear and present danger to
American national security" and that it "is also attempting to lay the
foundation for military and covert operations within the U.S. by
partnering with Mexican drug cartels."
Nowhere
in the report are either of these statements corroborated. As security
analyst Steven Dudley from Insight Crime and Samuel Logan from Southern
Pulse both contend,
Mexican criminal groups are not likely to commit acts of political
violence in the U.S., much less involve foreign governments.
The
document goes on to state, “Iran and Hezbollah have been involved in
the underworld of Latin America long enough to become intimately
familiar with all of its inhabitants and capitalize on their
capabilities.”*
It
substantiates this claim with a testimony from former DEA executive
Michael Braun, who says, "If you want to visualize ungoverned space or a
permissive environment, I tell people to simply think of the bar scene
in the first Star Wars movie. Operatives from FTOs (foreign terrorist
organizations) and DTOs (drug trafficking organizations) are frequenting
the same shady bars, the same seedy hotels and the same sweaty brothels
in a growing number of areas around the world. Based upon over 37 years
in the law enforcement and security sectors, you can mark my word that
they are most assuredly talking business and sharing lessons learned."
According
to the report, the 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador was
the result of these links established in "shady bars." The incident is
the strongest established connection between Iran and Mexican drug
cartels that the report examines.
While
the plot was real and revealed developments to which policymakers
should pay attention, many analysts and major media were skeptical of
the details and whether the incident truly denotes Iranian-Zeta links.
As Adam Isacson pointed out on border fact check blog, there was no evidence that the Zeta organization knew about the plan.
Insight Crime looked at the details of the case and concluded the
failed plot served to show the lack of intimate contact and knowledge
between Iran and the Mexican cartels, which many analysts have said are
"not interested in committing acts of political violence on U.S. soil."
Analyst James Bosworth also examines the case on his blog,
saying "the clearly amateurish nature of Iran's involvement here shows
that we have less to fear. The fact that an Iranian Qods-linked official
is poking around the border looking for Zetas sicarios and ends up with
the DEA informant suggests that Iran and Hezbollah have far less ties
to the Mexican organized crime scene than some analysts would want you
to believe."
In the "2012 Terrorism and Transnational Crime Report,"
Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper said "It remains to
be seen whether this alleged plot is indicative of greater
crime-terrorism cooperation or a one-time departure from conventional
IRGC-QF tactics." He did however note that the plot indicates some
Iranian officials are more willing to conduct an attack in the U.S., but
said nothing about established links to Mexican cartels.
Other
government reports and statements acknowledge Iran and Hezbollah's
presence as a potential threat, but not as an imminent danger. Similarly
none of the security reports note any direct transnational connection
between terrorist organizations and Mexican drug cartels, or highlight
Iran's involvement in Venezuela as a threat to national security.
In the "World Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community" Clapper
acknowledges the potential for links, but admits that the extent of
connection between the groups is unclear. There is no discussion of
Venezuelan-Iranian ties as a threat.
The State Department's 2010 "Country Report on Terrorism," published
in August 2011, denied the existence of transnational terrorist groups
actively operating in the country, saying, "There were no known
operational cells of either al-Qaida- or Hezbollah-related groups in the
hemisphere."
Similarly, the 2011 "Country Report on Terrorism" indicates
no threat of a transnational terrorist attack in the Western Hemisphere
and discovered "No known international terrorist organization had an
operational presence in Mexico and no terrorist group targeted U.S.
citizens in or from Mexican territory." It found "no evidence of signs
of ties between Mexican criminal organizations and terrorist groups."
The findings from the House's Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012,
passed by the body in September, follows the general trend of
government statements by recognizing Hezbollah presence, funding sources
and some involvement in illegal activity, but states no known
operational links between Hezbollah and Mexican drug cartels, other than
the assassination plot and a money laundering scheme between the Zetas
and Lebanese Canadian bank, which has since been shut down.
"A
Line in the Sand" also concludes that "the FARC is operating with Iran
and Hezbollah in Venezuela, and the Venezuelan Government is complicit
in these operations." For this reason, the subcommittee gives the
recommendation that "the U.S. government should consider designating
Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism."
In an interview with Polifact,
Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution, who testified in 2009
for the House subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs on
illicit economies, organized crime, and their impact on U.S. and global
security, said, "Allegations of al-Qaida, Hamas, and Hezbollah contacts
with the FARC or these groups' penetration of the Latin American drug
trade have not proven robust."
Kevin
Casas-Zamora, former vice president of Costa Rica, added, "If Venezuela
was indeed harboring a serious Hezbollah operation we would surely know
it by now. The U.S. has had for years an official policy of toning down
the confrontation with Chavez, but a serious terrorist threat is the
one thing that the U.S. would not countenance."
When asked directly about Iran's involvement in the hemisphere during testimony to
the Senate in March, former Southern Command leader General Doug Fraser
highlighted the continued financial support the organizations receive
from the region, saying, “Our concern remains their traditional
connections with Hezbollah and Hamas, who do have organizations in Latin
America. Those organizations are primarily focused on financial support
to organizations back in the Middle East, but they are involved in
illicit activity."
As
far as the threat of these groups to U.S. security, he did comment on
the connection between these groups and illicit activities in the region
and said it is something SOUTHCOM will "continue to look for as we
watch in the future, that connection between the illicit activity and
the potential pathway into the United States," echoing the watchful
caution presented in SOUTHCOM's 2012 posture statement.
Towards
the end of the section on Iran, “A Line in the Sand” says "it is
believed the ability exists to turn operational if the need arises.
There is no doubt that the enemy is at our doorstep and we must do
something about it now.”
The 2010 "International Terrorism and Transnational Crime: Security Threats, U.S. Policy, and Considerations for Congress," along
with other government reports, supports this statement to a degree,
noting the potential of Hezbollah supporters in the region to become
more involved. It says, “If the organization decided to attack U.S. or
Israeli interests in West Africa or South America, it is possible that
these sympathizers could play a concrete role.” However no reports give
the sense that "the enemy is at our doorstep."
The
United States government, along with several security experts, has
conducted many investigations into this issue. The overall conclusion
seems to be that while the threat of Hezbollah in the hemisphere is
there, it is relatively small and something that is being monitored.
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