Terrorist
attacks and criminal operations often require meticulous planning and
preparation. This process takes place in a six-stage attack cycle:
target selection, planning, deployment, the attack, escape and
exploitation. During the target selection and planning stages,
terrorists conduct pre-operational surveillance to determine the
target's patterns of behavior if it is an individual or possible
weaknesses and attack methods if the target is a building or facility.
After a target is selected and surveilled, operational planning for the
actual attack begins. During this phase, the who, how, where and when of
the attack are determined. To make these decisions, the plotters must
conduct more surveillance, initiate logistic support and assemble the
attack team. When the planning stage is complete, the terrorists deploy
for the actual attack -- the point of no return. In the deployment
stage, the attackers will leave their safe houses, collect any weapons,
assemble any improvised explosive devices being used, form into teams
and move to the location of the target. If counterterrorism and law
enforcement personnel have not stopped them by this point, the
terrorists will press home their attack. In the beginning phases of the
terrorist attack cycle, planners must determine the method of escape and
the precise timing for implementing the escape plan. Without such
planning, those carrying out attacks are further vulnerable to detection
and capture -- an eventuality that risks limiting future operations due
to the loss of the operatives and also to the intelligence that law
enforcement can glean from the detainees. (In suicide attacks, militants
obviously do not need to take into account an escape route.) After the
perpetrators successfully stage an attack and escape, they will attempt
to derive additional value from it by generating publicity. The goal --
beyond flaunting the success and spreading terror -- is to gain wider
support and sympathy from those most inclined to agree with the
perpetrators' goals and tactics. The best way to elicit widespread
coverage, of course, is to carry out spectacular, brazen and
particularly violent acts or attacks against prominent people -- meaning
potential media reaction is considered during the target selection
phase of the attack cycle.
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