Achy Obejas: The Florida winner? Barack. Here's why.

WBEZ (blog)/

Every single time a Republican primary rolls around, it’s the real test. Remember Iowa? It was going to separate the wheat from the chaff. But all it really did was get rid of Michelle Bachman (not a small thing, but no one believes that was all the chaff). 

Then came New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney -- under the illusion he’d won Iowa -- was going to make it two in a row, score a historic precedent, and prance to the nomination. New Hampshire was a test of money -- who had it, who didn’t. And all it really proved was that Jon Huntsman couldn’t get his dad to give him more of his millions to prop up his campaign (a campaign that was never, not once, about 2012).

Then there was South Carolina, where the strong, evangelical Republican base was going to take every sinner to church. And what that proved was that Newt Gingrich may be a Catholic convert, but he’s probably got a really powerful babalao in Miami. Only black magic can explain Gingrich’s continued dark rising. (A little racist coding didn’t hurt either.)

And now there’s Florida, where the GOP presidential candidates are supposedly battling for the Latino vote and co-frontrunners Gingrich and Romney have hired former aides of Cuban-American Sen. Marco Rubio to help with their campaigns. 

Let us be clear: GOP wannabes are not really fighting for the Latino vote in Florida. They’re all trying to get the Cuban vote, which is a whole other kind of empanada. In other words, Florida is suis generis, the lessons here useless in every other state and -- you all can buy me drinks later -- the GOP is going to lose Florida in the general election anyway.

I know, you’re saying, Achita, you’ve gone loca.

But hear me out. Or more precisely, take a second listen to Romney and Gingrich at Monday night’s debate, in which they tried to out-metaphorically-kill Fidel Castro. Ask yourself: Who -- besides hardline Cubans -- gives a mambo about whether Fidel lands before his maker or in hell?  More >>