Our Troubled World

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Our Troubled World

July updated country reports include: North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Philippines, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Croatia, Romania, Turkmenistan.

Is the Arab Spring sprung?

The Arab Spring continues to see fighting in Syria and Libya and in both nations we report non-governmental conferences, seeking the kind of peace that can meet the powerful need for a just outcome. In the case of Libya it seems that for the Eastern rebels forty years is quite enough - they will not talk to Qadafi and in this they are supported by the international community. Meanwhile Colonel Qadafi has been arraigned by the International Criminal Court and a warrant issued for him and his son Islam, relating to the deaths of civilians in the early days of the revolt. We consider in Libya how the very existence of this international warrant now affects the situation.

We have an updated report on Egypt, where September elections are looming – before there is a new constitution or even an electoral law, which many believe to be a very poor idea - and we look at the balance of electoral forces insofar as this is known. Significant updated reports also from Saudi Arabia; Iran and Turkey.

Iraq, relatively untouched by the Arab Spring is as chaotic as ever, but happily they keep increasing their reserves of oil, possibly now the largest in the world. However, US oil companies have studiously not been favoured with exploitation licences, (so much for V-President Cheney’s ‘oil imperialism').

“The Fog of War?”

In a “Catch 22” moment for Baghdad, a $17 billion problem from 2004 (before the civilian administration arrived), is now causing deep embarrassment. Seventeen thousand million dollars were flown in by the US military as shrink-wrapped bricks of $100 bills, to become the Iraq Reconstruction Fund, but now it cannot be found. The government in Baghdad is saying they need it and never received it. Neither the US military nor anyone else can trace it!

We devote substantial coverage in our Overview to Afghanistan and Pakistan. There is of course a lot to consider in the war against the Taleban and how it will now play, on which we comment. But the Pakistan report is almost entirely seriously bad news. The Army was popular with the citizens - it was regarded inside and outside the country as the only institution that ‘worked’- since Pakistanis with good cause despise their government. But now the military are taking flak - big time from all comers, as we explain. This is obviously bad for the nuclear-armed country’s stability, therefore for every nation’s interest.

In the Far East we offer a report on North Korea which involves this month following the Dear Leader around China, together with interesting information about North Korea’s coming ever closer to its giant neighbour, having effectively shut down other sources of aid which have served in the past.

Our survey of the Philippines is quite optimistic on economic criteria and the performance of the new Aquino presidency, but deeply concerned about the continuing corruption of the law courts.

The former Soviet Union nations are well represented here with individual reports: Russia itself of course; Ukraine, whose glamorous former Prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, is now on trial; Georgia, where Saakashvili continues to whip-up anti-Russian sentiment and Putin paid a reassuring call on disputed Abkhazia, as their president had died in office.

Uzbekistan’s role in people trafficking is considered–largely it seems for prostitution in the UAE; Kazakhstan has further consideration of the ageing president’s recent election ‘walkover;’ Turkmenistan where the future of the Nabucco project to transport natural gas from that nation’s vast stocks by pipeline avoiding Russia, is now at risk, following EU members’ concerns about human rights in that remote country, as though they had any leverage there.

The Balkan states this month include Serbia where the arrest of General Ratko Mladic after sixteen years on the run, has dismayed Serb Nationalists. In neighbouring Croatia the citizenry are equally dismayed by the arrest of their national war hero, General Ante Gotovina. Both of these former military men are now in custody at The Hague charged with war crimes. In Croatia however, the people have had the good news that they have been accepted into membership of the EU after six years of trying. Romania has been showing indications of economic improvement, but now there is deep concern about the financial woes of neighbouring Greece impinging on their banks and delicate measure of progress.

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