Canadian Security Inteligent Services: WHAT FUTURE FOR RUSSIA?

Executive summary

There exist many Russias, images of which are shaped as much by perceptions as by misperceptions and what seem at times to be flagrant contradictions. Descriptions of the country vary widely: seen by some as a polity suffering the pains of political transition, it is also viewed as a petro-state, a neo-imperial power whose former glory has made nostalgic, and as "Russia Inc.", where all can be bought and sold. The multiple definitions of Russia are all in their own way rooted in current political, economic and social realities, as well as in its geography and its self-image in the international system. All these factors together determine whether Russia's ambitions will become realities, or if the gap between them may simply be too wide to bridge.

President Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly indicated that his country needs modernisation. But one wonders whether he has the necessary power to make a lasting difference in this sense. Modernisation is improbable in the current system, in which class interests are too rigid and corruption reigns. Genuine modernisation will require a seismic shift in Russian politics, an unlikely development since the influential classes prefer the status quo. Mr Medvedev might well be viewed as the younger, future face of Russia, but he is in many respects a virtual president, unable to implement modernisation programs because his prime minister is more powerful than him.

Observers at times assume that Russian democracy will come to resemble western-style democracy. While the West can assist Russia's transition, the very ideas of democracy, liberty, justice and political participation often carry differing meanings for both sides and hinder mutual understanding. It also remains to be seen whether a genuinely democratic Russia would be more open to collaboration with North America and Europe.

Diversifying the national economy has been advertised as a long-term objective. However, oil and gas will provide Russia's most meaningful comparative advantage far into the future; it is not realistic to imagine the country's hydrocarbon sector becoming only one amongst many. Moscow hopes to play the "Chinese energy card" when dealing with the EU: if Europeans do not meet Russia's conditions, it might turn eastwards, where a growing market lies and is open for business. This is mere rhetoric because there is no pipeline infrastructure to ship the required oil to China and natural gas is not prominent in China's supply mix. Russia and the EU therefore rely as much on each other for energy security.

Moscow's vision of its future as a great, aspiring power with "rights and consequence over its subordinate neighbours" is not shared by the surrounding political actors. Improvements have occurred in its relations with the US thanks to the "reset" policy and its cornerstone initiative, the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). But the treaty's future is uncertain because it has not been ratified by the US senate and may run into verification challenges. Relations with Beijing are often seen as a way to sustain Russia's status as a global power. In reality the relationship between the two countries is limited to a few common interests. In the end, Moscow remains overwhelmingly oriented towards western culture, politics and world-views.

When Mr Putin assumed the Russian presidency in the late 1990s, he promised significant improvements to the state of the Russian armed forces. Little accomplishments have been made despite words meant to create the illusion of a military renaissance. Russia maintains a nuclear strategic deterrence capability, and a quantitatively impressive conventional arsenal. However, despite reform efforts, Russia lacks modern military capabilities and the quality of its forces leaves room to be desired.

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