Development of Scenarios:
Themes, Axes, and Quadrants
The choice of driving forces and themes had to respect the parameters established in the definition of identity politics and those of the security analysis method, but it also had to play a key role when defining the axes and quadrants. Furthermore, as previously explained, the team selected scenarios which allowed us to describe and study security issues in which identity politics also played a leading, albeit a more “explicit”, role. In short, the team used the six themes to select the axes likely to be interesting in the context of its scenarios.
These axes are as follows:
- Participation and confidence in Canadian institutions (“PC”)
- Innovative (particularly technological and economic) capacity (“IC”)
- Participation and confidence in international institutions (“PI”)
- Disparities between various affinity groups and various communities (“DP”)
Using the following four quadrants, the team selected the four most promising scenarios for the purposes of studying the issues surrounding national security and identity politics. Each of the scenarios was named after a work of literature with which it shared elements in common.
| Scenario 1 L'Étranger  | Scenario 2 Lord of the Flies  | Scenario 3 Canada Shrugged  | Scenario 4 Brave New World  |
|---|
Scenario 1: L’étranger
Axes
Scenario 1
L’Étranger
L’Étranger
A decrease in participation and confidence in Canadian institutions (“PC”).
A decrease in innovative (particularly technological and economic) capacity (“CI”).
Context
L’Étranger [The stranger] symbolizes decreased participation and confidence in Canadian institutions because of Canadians’ lack of innovative spirit to counter the current political and economic crisis. This situation will divide the society and open the door to the emergence of organized crime. We have chosen L’Étranger as the title, as this scenario reminds us of Albert Camus’ novel in which people become strangers to one another.
Scenario
In response to the economic crisis raging since fall 2008, Washington has strengthened the stimulus plan for the US economy. Protectionist policies such as those adopted in early 2009 to help the steel industry have been expanded to most products and services. As these US policies have helped to revive the economy of the United States, a number of countries have adopted similar policies. Thanks to the numerous protectionist economic recovery measures implemented around the world, the global economic situation has gradually improved. The European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have isolated themselves. Shortly thereafter, new regional economic unions, notably Eastern Europe, South Asia, the Middle East, and South America, emerge. Most of these unions have been formed with one of the emerging nations of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) which, since the crisis, have played a growing role internationally because of their ability to innovate.
On the other hand, the situation has been altogether different in Canada. As the United States is economically independent, it did not deem it necessary to conclude regional alliances. However, as the Canadian economy largely relies on exports to and trade with the United States, it is suffering from protectionist policies that have helped to stabilize the crisis globally and to restore the confidence of a number of investors, while plunging Canada into a downward spiral. Canada’s lack of innovative capacity has limited the number of economic recovery projects, which has thus further plunged Canada into turmoil and further isolated it. Despite some very minor stimulus measures adopted too late, the Canadian government has not succeeded in dealing with the situation and continues to amass huge debts. The crisis and the government’s debt are affecting an ever-increasing portion of the population: Canadians can no longer maintain their spendthrift lifestyle. The government has had no other alternative but to reduce expenses and services which Canadians have so far taken for granted. In 2013, the government is forced to provide fewer very poor quality services. As participation and confidence in government institutions were already low, these events have deepened the pessimism regarding the government, pessimism which has now reached an unprecedented level.
The persistent economic crisis in Canada, the closing of the trade border with the United States, the loss of any competitive advantage, and the lack of innovation on the international market have forced a number of companies to close their doors and to throw thousands of Canadians out of work. Numerous Canadians who have specialized skills and are highly educated have thus emigrated to regions of the world with more prosperous economies. Not only is Canada unable to stop the brain drain, but also it can no longer attract immigrants as it did in the past. Those immigrants who are educated and who could enrich Canadian society no longer want to come here to work. Those who have remained are generally immigrants who still have not obtained Canadian citizenship which would enable them to migrate, as well as native, less educated Canadians.
As of 2012, Canadians are turning towards traditional networks, towards a model of society in which personal contacts within affinity groups take precedence over everything else. As people turn increasingly towards their family, their friends, and members of their religious and cultural communities, the Canadian society is more and more divided. Employment opportunities are rare. An individual now finds employment and obtains most services which were previously provided by various levels of government through “contacts”. Given that native, highly qualified Canadians have mostly emigrated to the more prosperous countries of the Persian Gulf and Asia, only less qualified Canadians and highly qualified immigrants with much sought-after skills remain for the most part. As a result, professional associations no longer impose obstacles to the recognition of the experience and education of immigrants. Some of these associations have even been dissolved. The rare positions remaining are now held by these immigrants. This situation deeply shocks native Canadians, particularly those of British and French origin. The hostility between ethnic groups is increasingly palpable and the fight to obtain these specialized jobs is intensifying.
In 2014, a computer technician in London attacks an Asian engineer who obtained a contract at his expense. The words “Jobs to Canadians” were scrawled on the victim’s body. Proudly claiming responsibility, the criminal posts video images of his crime on a Web site. This hate crime leads to increased tensions and violence between groups of Identity Politics and Security ( Future Scenarios Canada in 2020 ) Canada in 2020 recent immigrants and European-descended Canadians. Segregation between these groups is now almost complete, which helps to strengthen links within groups for the purposes of obtaining services.
In 2015, these segregationist movements lead to the emergence of criminal groups, which are organized according to ethnic or national group, and which offer services previously provided by the State. Modus operandi of these groups resembles that of Hamas or of the Hizballah. They provide social services only to members of their social, cultural, ethnic or religious group. They are involved in apparently charitable causes, but they remain illegitimate State sub-players.
In 2017, these groups control key elements of Canadian society. Hospitals are in the hands of the Southeast Asian mafia and provide care only to individuals of Asian origin. The Middle Eastern and Latin American mafia have become the masters of Alberta’s natural resources by acquiring significant financial shares on the market. In exchange for millions of dollars, they offer the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce the production and distribution of Canadian petroleum, so that the price of petroleum will increase. There is no longer any loyalty to Canada, only to the common interests of affinity groups. Some of these groups are trying to get elected to parliament, but in vain. The population is disillusioned, and nobody believes that the government will intervene to remedy the situation.
Meanwhile, the population is still seeking scapegoats to hold responsible for economical problems and growing unemployment. Canada’s young people harbour increasing resentment towards baby boomers and seniors who “wasted” natural resources and drove the country into debt. Given that pension funds are no longer what they were, baby boomers who should normally retire refuse to abandon their stable jobs, resulting in young, unemployed Canadians. Tensions between the two groups are on the rise. Two criminal groups, the Young WASPs and the FrancoJeunes, join forces to deceive seniors, the sick, and baby boomers, and convince them to go and live in distant retirement communities. These communities are isolated and have no access to any services. The two criminal groups are trying to rid themselves of people whom they consider to be a burden on the society and whom they accuse of hindering Canada’s development. Corruption among criminal groups and the ghettoization of communities based on ethnic origin and age have not improved the situation. Canada is caught up in a vicious circle which is plunging it even more deeply into the crisis. The situation is increasingly affecting Canada’s relations with the international community. In 2018, emerging countries of the BRIC have started to question Canada’s role in several international cooperation organizations. In 2019, China and Brazil have become allies to expel the country from the G8 and have succeeded in doing so. Canada is currently Identity Politics and Security ( Future Scenarios Canada in 2020 10 ) Canada in 2020 a member of the G20+ only. It no longer has any influence within major international organizations, and government representatives generally no longer have any legitimacy in the eyes of foreign leaders, which only exacerbates Canada’s economic and social problems.
A decrease in innovative capacity and in confidence in Canadian institutions have stripped Canada of any legitimacy, in the eyes of its population and the rest of the world.
Security risk evaluation
The events described in this scenario have important consequences for Canada’s national security. Foreign-influenced activities at the expense of Canada’s interests have weakened the legitimacy of institutions and of Canada’s government apparatus. Specifically, the fact that criminal groups’ control of Canadian petroleum resources is for sale to member countries of OPEC represents a good example of the threat to Canada’s national security. Several examples of the threat to the economic well-being and competitiveness of Canada are also illustrated in this scenario, including control over natural resources, US protectionism, and the growing influence of the BRIC countries, among others. Finally, the threat to law and order, social peace, and good governance is clearly revealed in this scenario. The fragmentation of the society, the eruption of violence between affinity groups (age, religion, ethnic group, nationality etc.) and criminal groups’ control over key sectors of the Canadian economy and society pose a serious threat to Canada’s national security.
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