Cuba & country risk | C U B A P O L I D A T A

The Ecomomist Intelligence Unit published at the end of May its Country Risk Ratings (assesses credit risk across 100 emerging markets and 20 developed economies) analyzing European stability. The top 5 countries in order were: (1) Switzerland, (2) Norway, (3) Finland, (4) Sweden, and (5) Austria. At the very bottom, (115) Cuba joining (116) Nicaragua and (117) Sudan.

EIU view:
Cuba’s score was stable at 66 following Fidel Castro’s retirement from the presidency in February 2008. The long-running hostility between Cuba and America, the government’s wariness of private business and the maintenance of the one-party system are unlikely to be affected by the transition. The new president—Fidel’s brother, Raúl—had been deputising since July 2006, ensuring a smooth succession. That said, the new leadership will not enjoy the same degree of undisputed authority, so there will be pressure for change. If the government fails to respond to public frustration with economic hardship and political restrictions, there is a possibility that dissent might strengthen sufficiently to present a serious threat to the political stability.