Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Economia mundial. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Economia mundial. Mostrar todas las entradas

miércoles, enero 02, 2013

Emerging economies in 2013

EconomistMagazine
Which countries will be the economic success stories of 2013? William Easterly, professor of economics at New York University, and Dambisa Moyo, author of "Winner Take All", consider the fate of the emerging economies in the near future in a discussion moderated by The Economist's Zanny Minton Beddoes at The Economist's World in 2013 Festival on December 8th 2012. 

miércoles, diciembre 12, 2012

Breakingviews: Central banks at Sea

Incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney's avocation of nominal GDP targeting is a dubious tweak to current policy. The trade's intellectual armoury looks empty, says Breakingviews.

lunes, diciembre 10, 2012

U.S. to face 2030 as 'first among equals,' report projects

motherjones.com
Security Clearance
By Matt Smith
The United States is likely to remain the leading world power in 2030 but won't hold the kind of sway it did in the past century, according to a new study by the U.S. intelligence community.
Washington will most likely hold its status as "first among equals" two decades from now, buoyed not only by military strength but by economic and diplomatic power. That's one of the conclusions of "Alternative Worlds," released Monday by the National Intelligence Council.
Rising powers such as China may be "ambivalent and even resentful" of American leadership, but they're more interested in holding positions of influence in organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund than assuming that role, the report found.
"Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over, and "Pax Americana" - the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 - is fast winding down," the report states.
Monday's 166-page report is the fifth in the "Global Trends 2030" series by the council, an arm of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
It doesn't make specific predictions, but says that the world is at a "critical juncture" in which technology is advancing, competition for resources is growing and a middle class is emerging in countries around the world.
"Our effort is to encourage decision makers - whether in government or outside - to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding," council Chairman Christopher Kojm wrote in the report's preface.
The report lays out a series of possible futures, both optimistic and pessimistic, from a world in which globalization has stalled and the risk of war has gone up to one in which collaboration between Washington and Beijing produces a rapid increase in worldwide prosperity.
Technological advances will give individuals more freedom, but also have the potential to provide small groups with the kind of destructive capabilities now available only to nations.
"With more widespread access to lethal and destructive technologies, individuals who are experts in such key areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder," Kojm said during a briefing on the report. "Terrorists might focus less on mass casualties and more on causing widespread economic and financial disruptions."
Economic power is likely to shift away from the United States and Europe to China, India and Southeast Asian countries, and Africa will see an urban boom as people move to cities at a faster rate, the report concludes. But those developments will add pressure to deal with environmental issues such as more frequent or severe droughts and the projected rise in sea levels due to a warming climate.
"Under most scenarios - except the most dire - significant strides in reducing extreme poverty will be achieved by 2030," the report notes. The numbers of people living in poverty is likely to drop sharply in East and South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, with sub-Saharan Africa lagging behind.
Kojm said, "economic growth, the rise of the global middle class, greater educational obtainment and better health care mean –for the first time in human history - the majority of the world's population will no longer be impoverished."
But perhaps the biggest question mark in the report is the Middle East.
The region "will be a very different place" in 2030, the authors conclude, "but the possibilities run a wide gamut from fragile growth and development to chronic instability and potential regional conflicts." The youth boom that has driven the Arab Spring revolts will give way to an aging population, while shifts in energy consumption may force oil-rich Middle Eastern economies to find new sources of income.
The growth of middle classes will increase demand for political and social change, but that could be a mixed blessing: "Historically, the rise of middle classes has led to populism and dictatorships as well as pressures for greater democracy," the authors noted. Meanwhile, that global growth "disguises growing pressures on the middle class in Western economies," including international competition for higher-skilled jobs.
The growing middle class will also increase demand for water and food by more than 35% over the next couple of decades the report indicates. Advancements in key technologies such as genetically modified crops, precision agriculture and water irrigation techniques could for the most part help prevent scarcity.
An increase in the earning power, education and political clout of women "will be a key driver of success for many countries," with gender gaps closing fastest in East Asia and Latin America, the report found.
And India is likely to be in the same position in 2030 that China is today, it concludes.
"India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows," the authors found. China's 8%-10% growth "will probably be a distant memory by 2030," it notes. And India's economic advantage over regional nuclear rival Pakistan is likely to grow, roughly doubling the comparative size of its economy.
Pam Benson contributed to this report

lunes, octubre 29, 2012

Robert Solow: New Ideas for a New World

 
Three years after the global financial crisis, some of the biggest names in economics came together with the International Monetary Fund to discuss what we have learned―and what we need to do differently. Hear what Professor Solow, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, has to say.

sábado, octubre 27, 2012

IMF chief hails Canada as economic model for the world

TORONTO — The head of the International Monetary Fund says measures taken to protect Canada’s economy should be a model for countries trying to fix their financial systems.
Christine Lagarde said Thursday that Canada has been a leader in creating policies intended to rein in the build-up of household debt.
“Abroad, Canada is identified by its values of co-ordination and consensus building, which have given your country influence beyond its years,” she said. 
“Building a safe and stable financial system is in the best interests of the global community, but it also serves the self-interest of nations,” she added.
Lagarde made the comments at a dinner held in Toronto by the Canada International Council — an organization created to promote Canada’s position on the world market.
She pointed to the decision by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to boost down payments on new mortgages for homebuyers as an example of restraint that others should follow.
“All of these new reforms comprise the tools so far that will help us shape the future financial system,” she said.
“We must shape the system so it cannot again hold us ransom to the consequences of its failings.”
Lagarde’s speech focused on global financial reforms that while “heading in the right direction,” still haven’t delivered the safer financial system they were designed to create.
“Some financial systems are still under distress and crisis-fighting efforts are inadvertently impeding reforms,” Legarde said.
She singled out Basel III requirements as one of the financial reforms that had “generous implementation timetables,” that have been in development since 2010.
Under the proposed Basel III rules, a bank’s required capital levels must meet certain requirements, amongst other standards. The intention of the rules is to set a standard on key measures of a bank’s health and its ability to endure future economic downturns.
“There are many vested interests working against change and pushback is intensifying,” Legarde said.
“It is interesting how some banks say the new regulations will be too burdensome, but then spend hundreds of millions of dollars lobbying to kill them.”
Canadian banks have been proactive in reinforcing their balance sheets to meet the Basel III requirements ahead of schedule, and are widely considered a model for international banks because they weathered the global recession better than others.
“Most countries have committed to adopt some or all of the new regulations, and some have moved further ahead with their own national policies,” Lagarde said.
“The challenge now is to proceed to the end of the reform path all together.” More >>

martes, octubre 09, 2012

IMF: Global economic slowdown is getting worse, US must avoid ’fiscal cliff’

Greek Prime Minister A. Samaras and German Chancellor A. Merkel
Updated at 8:30 a.m. ET The International Monetary Fund said the global economic slowdown is worsening as it cut its growth forecasts for the second time since April and warned U.S. and European policymakers that failure to fix their economic ills would prolong the slump. 
Global growth in advanced economies is too weak to bring down unemployment and what little momentum exists is coming primarily from central banks, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook, released ahead of its twice-yearly meeting, which will be held in Tokyo later this week. 
"A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more lasting component," it said. "The answer depends on whether European and U.S. policymakers deal proactively with their major short-term economic challenges." 
Hannbial Hanschke / EPA  More >>

jueves, octubre 04, 2012

A bleak outlook for the world economy


The Economist/ John Micklethwait
Editor-in-Chief


For investors around the world, the recovery seems assured. The MSCI global share index has risen almost 10% since July. The credit for this largely goes to central bankers. In July Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said he would do whatever it takes to hold the euro together. In early September the ECB pledged to be a lender of last resort to governments, albeit under certain conditions. Soon afterwards the Federal Reserve launched a new round of quantitative easing (printing money to buy bonds) and promised to keep buying assets until American unemployment was “substantially” less awful. Other central banks followed with loosening of their own, in part to stop their currencies from rising (see article). All this activism boosted share prices.
But is it justified? The surge in shares certainly looks odd in light of the recent economic statistics. Over the past few months global growth has slowed to its weakest pace since the 2009 recession, as the world’s big economies have lost steam simultaneously. American output is growing at less than 2%. Growth in China, which until recently was in double digits, appears to have slowed to around 7%. Japan’s economy almost certainly shrank in the third quarter. And the euro zone’s recession shows no sign of easing.  More >>

miércoles, octubre 03, 2012

Global slowdown ’becoming a genuine possibility,’ as Europe, China decelerate further

LONDON - The euro zone's economic woes accelerated last month and China's slowdown looked likely to extend to a seventh quarter, surveys on Wednesday showed, while the United States proved the bright spot with better-than-expected news on services and jobs. 
Purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) suggested the aggressive actions taken by the world's central banks over the last two months have yet to convince consumers to start spending again.
The chances of the euro zone in particularly seeing growth again before next year has dwindled.
Falling new orders and more layoffs marked a worsening decline for euro zone companies, the PMIs showed, while growth of China's normally robust services weakened to an almost two-year low last month. More >>

lunes, septiembre 10, 2012

Encabeza Suiza Competitividad Mundial. Venezuela 126, Cuba out

The World Economic Forum  ha publicado  Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013. Los top ten paises en terminos de competividad son los siguientes:
  1. Suiza
  2. Singapur
  3. Finlandia
  4. Suecia
  5. Paises Bajos
  6. Alemania
  7. Estados Unidos
  8. Reino Unido
  9. Hong Kong
  10. Japon
China desciende del 26 al 29, mientras Francia aparece en el 21, Espana en el 36, Rusia en el 67 y Grecia en el 96.

En Latinoamérica Chile en el 33 encabeza la region. Panamá se ubica en el 40, Brasil en el 48; mientras México ancla en el 53,  Perú en el 61 y Colombia en el 69. Venezuela aparece en el lugar 126 de los 144 paises objeto de estudio. Cuba no fue evaluada.

Informe completo en espanol en: http://www.weforum.org/gcr.

miércoles, mayo 16, 2012

Revealed – the network that runs the world

The 1318 transnational corporations that form the core of the economy. Superconnected companies are red, very connected companies are yellow. The size of the dot represents revenue (Image: PLoS One)

AS PROTESTS against financial power sweep the world this week, science may have confirmed the protesters' worst fears. An analysis of the relationships between 43,000 transnational corporations has identified a relatively small group of companies, mainly banks, with disproportionate power over the global economy.
The study's assumptions have attracted some criticism, but complex systems analysts contacted by New Scientist say it is a unique effort to untangle control in the global economy. Pushing the analysis further, they say, could help to identify ways of making global capitalism more stable.
The idea that a few bankers control a large chunk of the global economy might not seem like news to New York's Occupy Wall Street movement and protesters elsewhere. But the study, by a trio of complex systems theorists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, is the first to go beyond ideology to empirically identify such a network of power. It combines the mathematics long used to model natural systems with comprehensive corporate data to map ownership among the world's transnational corporations (TNCs).
"Reality is so complex, we must move away from dogma, whether it's conspiracy theories or free-market," says James Glattfelder. "Our analysis is reality-based."
Previous studies have found that a few TNCs own large chunks of the world's economy, but they included only a limited number of companies and omitted indirect ownerships, so could not say how this affected the global economy - whether it made it more or less stable, for instance.
The Zurich team can. From Orbis 2007, a database listing 37 million companies and investors worldwide, they pulled out all 43,060 TNCs and the share ownerships linking them. Then they constructed a model of which companies controlled others through shareholding networks, coupled with each company's operating revenues, to map the structure of economic power.
The work, to be published in PLoS One, revealed a core of 1318 companies with interlocking ownerships (see image). Each of the 1318 had ties to two or more other companies, and on average they were connected to 20. What's more, although they represented 20 per cent of global operating revenues, the 1318 appeared to collectively own through their shares the majority of the world's large blue chip and manufacturing firms - the "real" economy - representing a further 60 per cent of global revenues.
When the team further untangled the web of ownership, it found much of it tracked back to a "super-entity" of 147 even more tightly knit companies - all of their ownership was held by other members of the super-entity - that controlled 40 per cent of the total wealth in the network. "In effect, less than 1 per cent of the companies were able to control 40 per cent of the entire network," says Glattfelder. Most were financial institutions. The top 20 included Barclays Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and The Goldman Sachs Group.
John Driffill of the University of London, a macroeconomics expert, says the value of the analysis is not just to see if a small number of people controls the global economy, but rather its insights into economic stability.
Concentration of power is not good or bad in itself, says the Zurich team, but the core's tight interconnections could be. As the world learned in 2008, such networks are unstable. "If one [company] suffers distress," says Glattfelder, "this propagates."
"It's disconcerting to see how connected things really are," agrees George Sugihara of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, a complex systems expert who has advised Deutsche Bank.
Yaneer Bar-Yam, head of the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI), warns that the analysis assumes ownership equates to control, which is not always true. Most company shares are held by fund managers who may or may not control what the companies they part-own actually do. The impact of this on the system's behaviour, he says, requires more analysis.
Crucially, by identifying the architecture of global economic power, the analysis could help make it more stable. By finding the vulnerable aspects of the system, economists can suggest measures to prevent future collapses spreading through the entire economy. Glattfelder says we may need global anti-trust rules, which now exist only at national level, to limit over-connection among TNCs. Sugihara says the analysis suggests one possible solution: firms should be taxed for excess interconnectivity to discourage this risk.
One thing won't chime with some of the protesters' claims: the super-entity is unlikely to be the intentional result of a conspiracy to rule the world. "Such structures are common in nature," says Sugihara.  More >>

martes, abril 10, 2012

Is China slowing down?


AEI/ John H. Makin*
With problems in the manufacturing, housing, and export sectors in China, we will likely see slower gross domestic product growth for the world’s second largest economy in 2012. China’s leadership is changing for the first time in a decade, and its new leaders have suggested that significant shifts in economic and currency policy are unlikely to occur during the transition. However, should China’s leadership remain content with slower growth, the global economy will suffer. If China’s growth loses momentum in 2012 and is coupled with similar losses in the United States and Europe, the recovery disappointment could well exceed that which appeared in 2010 and 2011. Despite these challenges, China has a unique opportunity to demonstrate its maturity as a player in the global economy. Through stimulus measures to its own economy, China could push for a bigger global economic pie rather than increase its share of a shrinking pie and in the process influence global economic growth in 2012.
Key points in this Outlook:
  • Slumping Chinese manufacturing, housing, and exports suggest slower GDP growth in 2012, and shifts in policy that would reverse this trend are unlikely to occur during China’s leadership transition.
  • In the midst of European economic austerity and looming US tax hikes, China’s slowdown could not come at a worse time.
  • By stimulating its economy, China could promote a worldwide economic recovery this year—but whether the country will contribute to global growth or act in self-interest via currency manipulation remains to be seen. 

China’s economy is slowing down, from a reported 9.2 percent annual rate of growth at the end of last year to approximately 7 percent during the first quarter of this year. Whether China’s growth will reaccelerate later this year depends on the global growth driving Chinese exports and on Chinese government policies—especially credit policies impacting China’s housing market and fiscal measures aimed at spending on infrastructure.
The tangible signs of slowing Chinese growth include a March drop in a manufacturing index that accurately tracks overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The March purchasing manager’s index (PMI) estimate from HSBC Holdings was reported at 48.3 in late March, a four-month low that is down substantially from last year’s level of 52. Interestingly, in contrast to the HSBC index, the official Chinese March PMI index (which was reported at the same time as HSBC’s) rose sharply to 53.1. Most analysts attributed the rise in the official index to seasonal factors that will subsequently be reversed. The fact that most Chinese stocks were down slightly after HSBC’s PMI index was announced suggests that the official PMI figure is not being taken at face value.
While manufacturing is slowing, China is also experiencing a housing slump. During February, housing prices in China declined in 45 of 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics, continuing a trend underway over the past six months. As its economy has slowed, China’s inflation rate has dropped to about 4 percent from last year’s peak of almost 8 percent. China’s slowing internal growth has been accompanied by a sharp drop in exports.
Perhaps not by coincidence, the steady (about 4 percent) trend appreciation of China’s renminbi (RMB) currency appears to have ended since the start of 2012. An end to RMB appreciation makes economic sense from China’s point of view, because less currency strength makes China’s exports less expensive in global markets where growth is slowing. Less currency appreciation also helps China avoid shrinking its share of the smaller global export market. Furthermore, the drop in China’s inflation rate has lessened the need to allow currency strength (lower prices of imported goods) to blunt inflation pressures.
A Change in Currency Policy?
There are also internal political reasons for China to lean toward a trendless currency during 2012. This fall, China’s leadership will change for the first time in a decade as President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao hand over power to their successors. During such transitions, China’s ruling class prefers to avoid abrupt economic changes, especially those tied to currency policy with high external visibility. After the March National People’s Congress, Premier Wen declared that the “RMB exchange rate is probably close to an equilibrium level.”[1]

The premier’s atypically direct statement about the currency underscores the likelihood that the transitional period since 2005—during which the currency’s value has risen substantially—is over. Wen’s declaration that the RMB has reached an “equilibrium” level after substantial appreciation conveys that China’s new leaders may prefer to wait to address the issue of further exchange rate adjustment until after they assume power this November. Going forward, movements in the RMB may be both stronger and weaker, centering on a new equilibrium level.
"More exchange-rate flexibility can help China's economy, notwithstanding the conflicts about currency manipulation a weaker RMB may engender with Cina's trading partners, especially the United States."It is important to recognize that the possibility of two-way exchange rate flexibility also gives China’s ruling Politburo another lever with which to manage the nation’s economy. Should slower growth persist along with falling inflation, a weaker Chinese currency could help stabilize growth and inflation. As China’s economy matures, leaving behind its era of persistently high growth, its leaders are beginning to think of ways to manage the transition. More exchange-rate flexibility can help China’s economy, notwithstanding the conflicts about currency manipulation a weaker RMB may engender with China’s trading partners, especially the United States.
An International Role for the RMB?
China is sending additional currency policy signals consistent with the expectation of somewhat slower economic growth, coupled in turn with the further internationalization of its currency. Internationalization of the RMB would underscore China’s role as a maturing modern economy. China’s efforts to consolidate its newfound prominence include measures to shore up its financial sector to bring it into better alignment with the country’s status as the world’s
second largest producer of goods and services. So far in 2012, China Development Bank has offered a large increase in new RMB loans to Asian countries, to the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, and India, and even to some indebted European countries. Extending RMB loans to more countries encourages the internationalization and growth of China’s still-nascent financial sector in a number of ways.
If, for example, an Italian, Russian, or Indian firm obtains RMB loans, then paying the interest on such loans (not to mention repaying them) is less risky if the borrower receives Chinese currency for the goods it sells globally. RMB borrowers outside China have an extra incentive to invoice their export customers in RMB; this helps them obtain the necessary currency to pay interest and amortization on their loans without incurring the risk of exchange rate changes that might increase the cost of such borrowing in their own currency.

Slower Chinese Growth Increases Global Risks
We can also look at the Chinese growth question in a broader context. The likelihood of a Chinese growth slowdown during 2012 presents, along with Europe’s austerity-induced recession, a headwind that may more than offset the global boost caused by the modest pickup in US economic growth. US growth accelerated to a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from a more tepid rate of 1.8 percent during the third quarter. Most estimates for US growth during the first half of 2012 are for a more modest 2 percent rate, with the still-tepid pace relying heavily on what may be temporary wealth gains tied to higher equity prices.
The modest rise in early 2012 US growth is also associated with the extra tax cuts passed by the US Congress late in 2011, amounting to about $160 billion. These tax cuts represented an extension and expansion of the extra tax cuts passed in late 2010. The US Federal Reserve has also attempted to keep interest rates very low with extra purchases of long-term treasuries and further promises of zero short-term interest rates until well into 2014.
As Europe’s economy has suffered from the fallout of the European debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has further expanded its easing since December with nearly ?1 trillion of additional three-year loans at guaranteed low interest rates to European banks. The ECB’s aggressive monetary ease under its new president, Mario Draghi, aims to help European banks repair their balance sheets in the face of uncertainty about the value of making substantial loans to shaky European governments. This step—along with the February and March “containment” of the acute Greek debt crisis—has helped calm financial markets during the first quarter of 2012.
"The likelihood of a Chinese growth slowdown during 2012 presents, along with Europe's austerity-induced recession, a headwind that may more than offset the global boost caused by the modest pickup in the US economic growth."Adding to the accommodations offered by central banks worldwide, the Bank of Japan chimed in on Valentine’s Day this year with more asset purchases equal to about 2 percent of GDP coupled with a pledge to end Japan’s persistent deflation by targeting 1 percent of actual inflation. The resulting effect has been modest so far with some increase in the stock market and some moderation of the yen’s appreciation.
A striking conclusion about China’s economic growth outlook emerges from this brief overview of the global economy for 2012: it is not a good time for China’s growth to slow down. While US growth was stronger at the end of 2011, the rest of 2012 promises slower growth. The US outlook will become even more problematic at the end of 2012 when already-legislated tax increases and spending cuts take hold. These measures will subtract about four percentage points from early 2013 growth. The measures will need to be considered by a lame-duck Congress after the November 2012 presidential election if any changes are to be made.
Changes in fiscal policy such as not ending tax cuts and not reducing spending from levels specified under current law will add sharply to already large deficits. The American dilemma thus becomes the price of kick-the-can budget policies whereby deficit reduction is postponed and one-more-time tax cuts and spending programs are continued. The fiscal stimulus measures employed since 2009 are meant to provide a temporary boost to growth, yet they will be followed by a growth drag once they are removed. The longer such one-off measures are extended, the larger the fiscal drag will be once they are removed. Hence we will see a prospective large fiscal drag, which will emerge at the end of 2012 under current law when a broad range of tax cuts and some spending measures are removed all at once.
A Leadership Opportunity for China
The questionable outlook for US growth toward the end of 2012—coupled with Europe’s recession and weakness in emerging markets—makes the focus on China’s perspective growth rate over the coming year even more compelling, especially when it comes to determining whether 2012 will witness the same growth disappointments that arose in 2010 and 2011. The supportive policy response in developed markets—more monetary and fiscal stimulus in the United States both in 2010 and 2011 and more monetary stimulus in Europe in 2011—will likely not be repeated. If China’s growth loses momentum during 2012 alongside similar momentum losses in the US and Europe, the recovery disappointment in 2012 could well exceed that which occurred in 2010 and 2011.
What with inflation having dropped well below the 4 percent target set by China’s policymakers and the fiscal deficit having dropped below 2 percent of GDP, China could manage further stimulus. Policymakers should consider additional spending on transportation and rural infrastructure, especially in view of the weakening impact of China’s external sector growth, and tied to the weak growth outlook in the global economy. Whether the desire for no new policy initiatives during China’s current transition to new leadership will prevent new economic stimulus remains to be seen.
China’s new leaders could break with tradition and signal their new outlook on China’s role in the global economy by stepping in to boost growth at a time when the global economy needs help. This kind of initiative would represent an effective way to enhance China’s image as a leading mature economy. Better to push for a bigger global economic pie with extra stimulus than to push for a bigger share of a static or shrinking pie with more currency intervention to keep the RMB undervalued.  More >>
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*John H. Makin (jmakin@aei.org) is a resident scholar at AEI.

martes, enero 24, 2012

IMF report: Global economy is slowing sharply

washingtonpost.com.
The world economy is slowing sharply, and the euro region headed for recession this year, the International Monetary Fund predicted Tuesday in a bleak update of global conditions.  Overall, the world economy is expected to expand 3.25 percent in 2012 -- down from the 4 percent projected by the IMF in the fall.

That figure includes 8.2 percent growth in China, still the world’s most quickly expanding economy, and 7 percent in India. U.S. Growth is forecast at 1.8 percent, the same as the fund projected in the fall.  In those cases and for the rest of the world, the IMF said growth was being crimped by what remains the world’s major economic risk -- the ongoing financial crisis in the euro zone.  In a trio of reports released Tuesday morning, the IMF forecasts a “mild recession” for the 17-nation euro zone this year, and warns that matters could easily worsen.  More at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/imf-report-global-economy-to-hit-mild-recession/2012/01/24/gIQAWR6SNQ_story.html

sábado, diciembre 31, 2011

$6.3 Trillion Wiped Off Global Markets in 2011


cnbc.com/
Almost $6.3 trillion was erased from global stock markets this year as the euro zone financial crisis reverberated across the world in the latter half of 2011, calling into question the future of the world’s largest currency bloc.
Global stock market capitalization dropped 12.1 percent to $45.7 trillion according to Bloomberg data, while the euro ended the year as the worst performing major currency after finally starting to succumb to the continent’s financial and economic woes in December.
The euro had proved resilient for much of the year – burning hedge funds that bet on a steeper decline – but on Friday touched a 10-year low against the Japanese yen, and is near lows against the dollar last touched a year ago.
“Investors were more optimistic at the start of the year, but as the year progressed they were forced to come to grips with the debt levels in the western world,” said Navtej Nandra, the international head of Morgan Stanley’s asset management arm.
The S&P 500 is flat this year while the FTSE 100 has only dropped 5.5 percent. But the Eurofirst 300 gauge of blue-chip European companies has lost 11 percent, led by the French and Italian exchanges. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has shed a fifth of its value despite strong growth in China and other emerging markets.
Asian equity markets were hit particularly hard with Japan’s Nikkei index losing 17.3 percent this year, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index 20 percent and the Shanghai Composite 22 percent. More >>
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Retratos de fusilados por el Castrismo - Juan Abreu

"Hablame"

"EN TIEMPOS DIFÍCILES" - Heberto Padilla

A aquel hombre le pidieron su tiempo

para que lo juntara al tiempo de la Historia.

Le pidieron las manos,

porque para una época difícil

nada hay mejor que un par de buenas manos.

Le pidieron los ojos

que alguna vez tuvieron lágrimas

para que contemplara el lado claro

(especialmente el lado claro de la vida)

porque para el horror basta un ojo de asombro.

Le pidieron sus labios

resecos y cuarteados para afirmar,

para erigir, con cada afirmación, un sueño

(el-alto-sueño);

le pidieron las piernas

duras y nudosas

(sus viejas piernas andariegas),

porque en tiempos difíciles

¿algo hay mejor que un par de piernas

para la construcción o la trinchera?

Le pidieron el bosque que lo nutrió de niño,

con su árbol obediente.

Le pidieron el pecho, el corazón, los hombros.

Le dijeron

que eso era estrictamente necesario.

Le explicaron después

que toda esta donación resultaria inútil.

sin entregar la lengua,

porque en tiempos difíciles

nada es tan útil para atajar el odio o la mentira.

Y finalmente le rogaron

que, por favor, echase a andar,

porque en tiempos difíciles

esta es, sin duda, la prueba decisiva.

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La columna de Cubanalisis

NEOCASTRISMO [Hacer click en la imagen]

NEOCASTRISMO [Hacer click en la imagen]
¨Saturno jugando con sus hijos¨/ Pedro Pablo Oliva

Seguidores

Carta desde la carcel de Fidel Castro Ruz

“…después de todo, para mí la cárcel es un buen descanso, que sólo tiene de malo el que es obligatorio. Leo mucho y estudio mucho. Parece increíble, las horas pasan como si fuesen minutos y yo, que soy de temperamento intranquilo, me paso el día leyendo, apenas sin moverme para nada. La correspondencia llega normalmente…”

“…Como soy cocinero, de vez en cuando me entretengo preparando algún pisto. Hace poco me mandó mi hermana desde Oriente un pequeño jamón y preparé un bisté con jalea de guayaba. También preparo spaghettis de vez en cuando, de distintas formas, inventadas todas por mí; o bien tortilla de queso. ¡Ah! ¡Qué bien me quedan! por supuesto, que el repertorio no se queda ahí. Cuelo también café que me queda muy sabroso”.
“…En cuanto a fumar, en estos días pasados he estado rico: una caja de tabacos H. Upman del doctor Miró Cardona, dos cajas muy buenas de mi hermano Ramón….”.
“Me voy a cenar: spaghettis con calamares, bombones italianos de postre, café acabadito de colar y después un H. Upman #4. ¿No me envidias?”.
“…Me cuidan, me cuidan un poquito entre todos. No le hacen caso a uno, siempre estoy peleando para que no me manden nada. Cuando cojo el sol por la mañana en shorts y siento el aire de mar, me parece que estoy en una playa… ¡Me van a hacer creer que estoy de vacaciones! ¿Qué diría Carlos Marx de semejantes revolucionarios?”.

Quotes

¨La patria es dicha de todos, y dolor de todos, y cielo para todos, y no feudo ni capellaní­a de nadie¨ - Marti

"No temas ni a la prision, ni a la pobreza, ni a la muerte. Teme al miedo"
-
Giacomo Leopardi

¨Por eso es muy importante, Vicky, hijo mío, que recuerdes siempre para qué sirve la cabeza: para atravesar paredes¨Halvar de Flake [El vikingo]

"Como no me he preocupado de nacer, no me preocupo de morir" - Lorca

"Al final, no os preguntarán qué habéis sabido, sino qué habéis hecho" - Jean de Gerson

"Si queremos que todo siga como está, es necesario que todo cambie" - Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa

"Todo hombre paga su grandeza con muchas pequeñeces, su victoria con muchas derrotas, su riqueza con múltiples quiebras" - Giovanni Papini


"Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans" - John Lennon

"Habla bajo, lleva siempre un gran palo y llegarás lejos" - Proverbio Africano

"No hay medicina para el miedo" - Proverbio escoces

"El supremo arte de la guerra es doblegar al enemigo sin luchar"
- Sun Tzu

"You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother" - Albert Einstein

"It is inaccurate to say I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office" - H. L. Menken

"I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation. We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented" - Elie Wiesel

"Stay hungry, stay foolish" -
Steve Jobs

"If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert , in five years ther'ed be a shortage of sand" - Milton Friedman

"The tragedy of modern man is not that he knows less and less about the meaning of his own life, but that it bothers him less and less" - Vaclav Havel

"No se puede controlar el resultado, pero si lo que uno haga para alcanzarlo" -
Vitor Belfort [MMA Fighter]

Liborio

Liborio
A la puerta de la gloria está San Pedro sentado y ve llegar a su lado a un hombre de cierta historia. No consigue hacer memoria y le pregunta con celo: ¿Quién eras allá en el suelo? Era Liborio mi nombre. Has sufrido mucho, hombre, entra, te has ganado el cielo.

Para Raul Castro

Cuba ocupa el penultimo lugar en el mundo en libertad economica solo superada por Corea del Norte.

Cuba ocupa el lugar 147 entre 153 paises evaluados en "Democracia, Mercado y Transparencia 2007"

Cuando vinieron

Cuando vinieron a buscar a los comunistas, Callé: yo no soy comunista.
Cuando vinieron a buscar a los sindicalistas, Callé: yo no soy sindicalista.
Cuando vinieron a buscar a los judíos, Callé: yo no soy judío. Cuando vinieron a buscar a los católicos, Callé: yo no soy “tan católico”.
Cuando vinieron a buscarme a mí, Callé: no había quien me escuchara.

Reverendo Martin Niemöller

Martha Colmenares

Martha Colmenares
Un sitio donde los hechos y sus huellas nos conmueven o cautivan
Bloggers Unite

CUBA LLORA Y EL MUNDO Y NOSOTROS NO ESCUCHAMOS

Donde esta el Mundo, donde los Democratas, donde los Liberales? El pueblo de Cuba llora y nadie escucha.
Donde estan los Green, los Socialdemocratas, los Ricos y los Pobres, los Con Voz y Sin Voz? Cuba llora y nadie escucha.
Donde estan el Jet Set, los Reyes y Principes, Patricios y Plebeyos? Cuba desesperada clama por solidaridad.
Donde Bob Dylan, donde Martin Luther King, donde Hollywood y sus estrellas? Donde la Middle Class democrata y conservadora, o acaso tambien liberal a ratos? Y Gandhi? Y el Dios de Todos?
Donde los Santos y Virgenes; los Dioses de Cristianos, Protestantes, Musulmanes, Budistas, Testigos de Jehova y Adventistas del Septimo Dia. Donde estan Ochun y todas las deidades del Panteon Yoruba que no acuden a nuestro llanto? Donde Juan Pablo II que no exige mas que Cuba se abra al Mundo y que el Mundo se abra a Cuba?
Que hacen ahora mismo Alberto de Monaco y el Principe Felipe que no los escuchamos? Donde Madonna, donde Angelina Jolie y sus adoptados around de world; o nos hara falta un Brando erguido en un Oscar por Cuba? Donde Sean Penn?
Donde esta la Aristocracia Obrera y los Obreros menos Aristocraticos, donde los Working Class que no estan junto a un pueblo que lanquidece, sufre y llora por la ignominia?
Que hacen ahora mismo Zapatero y Rajoy que no los escuchamos, y Harper y Dion, e Hillary y Obama; donde McCain que no los escuchamos? Y los muertos? Y los que estan muriendo? Y los que van a morir? Y los que se lanzan desesperados al mar?
Donde estan el minero cantabrico o el pescador de percebes gijonese? Los Canarios donde estan? A los africanos no los oimos, y a los australianos con su acento de hombres duros tampoco. Y aquellos chinos milenarios de Canton que fundaron raices eternas en la Isla? Y que de la Queen Elizabeth y los Lords y Gentlemen? Que hace ahora mismo el combativo Principe Harry que no lo escuchamos?
Donde los Rockefellers? Donde los Duponts? Donde Kate Moss? Donde el Presidente de la ONU? Y Solana donde esta? Y los Generales y Doctores? Y los Lam y los Fabelo, y los Sivio y los Fito Paez?
Y que de Canseco y Miñoso? Y de los veteranos de Bahia de Cochinos y de los balseros y de los recien llegados? Y Carlos Otero y Susana Perez? Y el Bola, y Pancho Cespedes? Y YO y TU?
Y todos nosotros que estamos aqui y alla rumiando frustaciones y resquemores, envidias y sinsabores; autoelogios y nostalgias, en tanto Louis Michel comulga con Perez Roque mientras Biscet y una NACION lanquidecen?
Donde Maceo, donde Marti; donde aquel Villena con su carga para matar bribones?
Cuba llora y clama y el Mundo NO ESCUCHA!!!

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